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The Costs of Success and Return to the Past

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Brazil - Emerging Forever?

Part of the book series: Societies and Political Orders in Transition ((SOCPOT))

Abstract

Explaining the differences between mature and premature deindustrialisation, the author draws attention to the costs of the social policy of the Left-centrist governments: the premature deindustrialisation and the return of Brazil to the position of a primary goods’ supplier, vulnerable to market fluctuations.

The chapter underlines that the reorientation of Brazil’s economic ties to China succeeded in making Brazil dependent on Chinese demand for primary goods. It slowed down the pace of agrarian reform under the Lula presidency, due to compromises with agribusiness: the main beneficiary of the commodities exports, for the sake of financing social programmes.

The attempts to somewhat initiate an industrial policy are scrutinised in the chapter too. However, as the author demonstrates, these attempts did not succeed in expected outcomes.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Electricity- and gas-supply industries are included, but mining and construction are excluded.

  2. 2.

    ‘…I have defined neutrality to mean that the shifts were pure scale changes, leaving marginal rates of substitution unchanged at given capital/labor ratios’ (Solow 1957: 316).

  3. 3.

    “The post-industrial society, it is clear, is a knowledge society in a double sense: first, the sources of innovation are increasingly derivative from research and development (and more directly, there is a new relation between science and technology because of the centrality of theoretical knowledge); second, the weight of the society—measured by a larger proportion of Gross National Product and a larger share of employment—is increasingly in the knowledge field” (Bell 1973: 212).

  4. 4.

    Here I do not consider the cases of some East and Central European countries, the post-Soviet space, Africa and the Middle East. There either deindustrialisation did not take place at all because of a lack of whatever significant industry or it had been the result of deliberate economic policy of the local elites, although not without ‘the external aid’ in some cases.

  5. 5.

    As D. Rodrik notes, the concept of premature deindustrialisation relating to developing countries was introduced for the first time by Dasgupta and Singh (2006, esp. 5–6, 15–17); Rodrik (2016: 2, note 4).

  6. 6.

    R. Rowthorn and R. Ramaswamy performed approximately the same data while counted the level of incomes per capita at which deindustrialisation began in the western countries (Rowthorn and Ramaswamy 1998: 14–18).

  7. 7.

    Marcelo Arendt has come to similar conclusions, comparing the pace of deindustrialisation in Brazil to that in other countries (Arendt 2015: 40–48, 52–53).

  8. 8.

    Counted on the data of UNCTAD.

  9. 9.

    The PT programmes of industrial policy are observed in the CEPAL/ECLAC publication (Laplante and Laplante 2017: 138–155).

  10. 10.

    In interview to the author of these lines in September 2009, Cardoso said that he met with the representatives of the MST, and these meetings helped to correct the pace and path of reform in different states (Cardoso 2010: 33–34).

  11. 11.

    Neither the then governor of Pará Almir Gabriel, who gave orders to unblock the highway, nor the state’s secretary for public security Paulo Câmara, who authorised a use of police force, nor the coronel Mario Colares Pantoja with the mayor José Maria Pereira de Oliveira, were held accountable judicially.

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Krasilshchikov, V. (2022). The Costs of Success and Return to the Past. In: Brazil - Emerging Forever? . Societies and Political Orders in Transition. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-50208-9_6

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