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Taxing Tobacco

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Taxing Sin

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Abstract

Smoking—and increasingly, vaping—is accused of imposing unnecessary healthcare costs on society that justify a tobacco tax. But tobacco’s societal impact is more complicated than what the conventional wisdom dictates. Many of the health risks from tobacco use are overstated. While they have undeniably shorter life expectancies, tobacco users save governments money—a lot of it. Research is also clear that tobacco taxes have little to no effect on smoking. But thanks to experts and interest groups, tobacco taxes aren’t likely going away. Too many government programs cannot afford fewer smokers, nor can experts and special interest groups funded with grants from tobacco tax revenue.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The English tobacco tax was never enforced, but a formal levy was introduced in 1660. The English position was more benign than that adopted by other governments. Some American colonies banned public smoking altogether. Emperor Chongzhen and Emperor Kangxi, who ruled China during the seventeenth century, also ordered tobacco prohibition. Violators there were punishable by death. Explorations of tobacco’s history are available in Grier (2019), Goodman (1993), and Milov (2019).

  2. 2.

    That’s not to say there were no organized campaigns or public outcry against tobacco. Throughout the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, many political cartoons depicted smoking in an unflattering light, featuring skull-and-crossbones caricatures, haggard faces, and the like (Sullum 1998, pp. 147–151). In 1914 Henry Ford published The Case Against the Little White Slaver, a book that warned readers “almost any criminal…is an inveterate cigarette smoker.” Ford’s concern was with smoking’s effect on boys, who he wrote “go with other smokers to the pool rooms and saloons.” Among other evidence for the perils of smoking, the book cited an experiment in which a cat died after being injected with “tobacco juice.”

  3. 3.

    Reiter (1996).

  4. 4.

    Proctor (1996, 1999).

  5. 5.

    American Heart Association (2019).

  6. 6.

    Quoted from the website’s homepage (http://tobaccoatlas.org).

  7. 7.

    Some tobacco control experts worry that the rise of concern about the obesity epidemic draws attention away from tobacco control, as if paternalism is some type of zero-sum game; see Schroeder and Warner (2010).

  8. 8.

    Rubinoff (2010).

  9. 9.

    Proctor (2011).

  10. 10.

    Glantz and Balbach (2000).

  11. 11.

    Sloan et al. (2006).

  12. 12.

    Quoted from website (https://www.rwjf.org/en/library/collections/tobacco-control.html). As Sullum (1998, p. 125) notes, the Foundation as far back as 1994 announced $10 million in funding to bolster campaigns in favor of higher tobacco taxes.

  13. 13.

    Quoted from website (https://www.tobaccofreekids.org/what-we-do/global/taxation-price).

  14. 14.

    Quoted from website (https://truthinitiative.org/research-resources/tobacco-prevention-efforts/importance-tobacco-taxes).

  15. 15.

    McLeod et al. (2009).

  16. 16.

    Thrasher et al. (2014) and Wackowski et al. (2013), but see also Blake et al. (2015).

  17. 17.

    Gardner and West (2010).

  18. 18.

    Gray et al. (1996) and Rezvani and Levin (2001).

  19. 19.

    Viscusi (1990, 1992).

  20. 20.

    Lung cancer, emphysema, and other respiratory disease incidence varies by sex, country, and length of time spent smoking, among other variables. Research indicates that genetics and nutrition also affect lung cancer risk among smokers; see Bach et al. (2003), Kelland (2010), and Swaminathan (2008).

  21. 21.

    Levy and Marimont (1998); see also Sterling et al. (1993). Comparable exaggerations about the number of obesity-related deaths have been published and used to justify related public health interventions.

  22. 22.

    See “Action Needed: Tobacco Taxes,” a policy brief issued in January 2019. The $170 billion figure was specific to the United States. Estimates of smoking’s burden on the healthcare systems in other countries typically fall in the billions of dollars. For example, Callum et al. (2011) claim tobacco’s burden on the United Kingdom’s National Health Service as far back as 1996 was nearly £2 billion annually.

  23. 23.

    See “The Health Consequences of Smoking – 50 Years of Progress: A Report of the Surgeon General,” issued in 2014.

  24. 24.

    There may be some spillover, but a smoker who dies prematurely or otherwise stops working opens their job to someone else. For that person, smoking has imposed a positive externality. If the smoker is replaced with a healthier worker, overall productivity may rise, another positive externality. However, evidence suggests that smokers are no more absent from work than non-smokers (Ault et al. 1991). Other studies with much smaller sample sizes come to the opposite conclusion (e.g., Halpern et al. 2001) as do studies funded by anti-tobacco research centers (e.g., Leigh 1995).

  25. 25.

    Xu et al. (2015).

  26. 26.

    The remainder are considered “former smokers.” The authors state that over a four-year period, former smokers contributed to a larger share of healthcare spending than current smokers. Combined, all current and former smokers were responsible for 8.7% of healthcare spending.

  27. 27.

    van Baal et al. (2008).

  28. 28.

    Temple (2011).

  29. 29.

    Gravelle and Zimmerman (1994).

  30. 30.

    Bonneux et al. (1998).

  31. 31.

    Manning et al. (1989); see also Viscusi (1995).

  32. 32.

    Raynauld and Vidal (1992).

  33. 33.

    Collins and Lapsley (2008).

  34. 34.

    O’Dea and Thomson (2007).

  35. 35.

    Tiihonen et al. (2012). Nevertheless, to arrive at the conclusion that smoking was a burden on society, the authors assumed that each year of life was worth €22,200.

  36. 36.

    McCormick et al. (1997).

  37. 37.

    Featherstone and Nash (2010).

  38. 38.

    Tucker (2003).

  39. 39.

    Snowdon and Tovey (2017).

  40. 40.

    Ibid.

  41. 41.

    Verguet et al. (2015).

  42. 42.

    Jimenez-Ruiz et al. (2007).

  43. 43.

    Contreary et al. (2015).

  44. 44.

    Levy et al. (2000) and Goodchild et al. (2016); see also Rhoads (2012) and Tauras et al. (2005).

  45. 45.

    Levy et al. (2002, 2006).

  46. 46.

    Nesson (2017); despite a small impact, the author described cigarette taxes as “an effective policy tool.”

  47. 47.

    MacLean et al. (2016).

  48. 48.

    Callison and Kaestner (2014).

  49. 49.

    Bogdanovica et al. (2012).

  50. 50.

    DeCicca et al. (2002, 2008) and Hansen et al. (2017), which find that while taxes may have reduced youth smoking in the past, there’s no reason to believe that’s true after 2007.

  51. 51.

    Ferrer and Orehek (2018).

  52. 52.

    Franks et al. (2007).

  53. 53.

    Cutler-Triggs et al. (2008).

  54. 54.

    Hyland et al. (2005), Tsai et al. (2005), Wangen and Biørn (2006), and White et al. (2013).

  55. 55.

    Nesbit (2018) and Sobel and Garrett (1997).

  56. 56.

    Evans and Farrelly (1998) and Farrelly et al. (2004).

  57. 57.

    Espinosa and Evans (2013), Hanewinkel et al. (2008), and Ohsfeldt et al. (1997).

  58. 58.

    Adda and Cornaglia (2006, 2013); see also Benowitz et al. (1986) and Scherer (1999).

  59. 59.

    Lakhdar et al. (2016), LaFaive (2018), Lovenheim (2008), and Luccasen et al. (2005).

  60. 60.

    That is not a modern response. The Ottoman Empire’s tobacco taxes were so high that they were widely believed to have encouraged smuggling, leading authorities to cut the tax.

  61. 61.

    DeCicca et al. (2013). Smuggling tobacco products across state lines is sometimes an exercise in behavior more nefarious than tax avoidance. In 2000, United States authorities arrested several individuals tied to a cigarette smuggling operation that ran between North Carolina and Michigan. Members of the group purchased thousands of cartons of cigarettes in low-tax North Carolina and drove them to high-tax Michigan, where they took advantage of higher market prices and sold the products to gas stations. The group did not pay Michigan tobacco taxes. Instead, a portion of the profits was funneled to the Islamic terrorist group Hezbollah. It was later revealed that the operation’s ringleader, Mohamad Youssef Hammoud, entered the United States illegally in 1992 and initiated the scheme about three years later. In 2002 he was found guilty of multiple crimes, including providing support to terrorists.

  62. 62.

    Kurti et al. (2013).

  63. 63.

    Merriman (2010).

  64. 64.

    Gallet and List (2003).

  65. 65.

    Biener et al. (2000).

  66. 66.

    Robbins et al. (2002) and Weintraub and Hamilton (2002).

  67. 67.

    Marlow (2012).

  68. 68.

    Marlow (2009).

  69. 69.

    Pierce et al. (1998).

  70. 70.

    Flegal et al. (1995) and see discussion in Gruber and Frakes (2006). While claiming to disprove the hypothesis that lower smoking leads to increased weight, the study relies on self-reported height, weight, and smoking levels rather than objectively collected data. Au et al. (2013) find that the relationship varies by gender; see also Courtemanche (2009).

  71. 71.

    Sen et al. (2010). Relatedly, Cawley et al. (2004) find that women looking to lose weight are more likely to initiate smoking.

  72. 72.

    Conway and Niles (2017).

  73. 73.

    Lippiatt (1990).

  74. 74.

    Barendregt et al. (1997).

  75. 75.

    Leu and Schaub (1983) and Temple (2011); see also Schelling (1986).

  76. 76.

    See Green (2001). A rebuttal study (Ross 2004) claimed that tobacco use bled money from the Czech treasury and implied that the Philip Morris-sponsored analysis was insufficiently paternalistic. The rebuttal received little notice, perhaps because it had several methodological flaws of its own. It estimated that tobacco use “drains at least $373 million from the state budget annually” but that figure’s source is not clear. The rebuttal includes no empirical models or sensitivity checks. The author claimed that lost wages and productivity were an externality, even though they aren’t—an ironic mistake, given that one of the author’s complaints about the Philip Morris report was sloppy handling of externalities and internalities. The author also complained that the report failed to incorporate several costs of tobacco use, including “grief,” and argued for tobacco paternalism.

  77. 77.

    Cohen (1996).

  78. 78.

    Barnes and Bero (1998). The authors applied a liberal interpretation of “industry ties” that included a person who had ever received any industry funding or supported the industry during its fight with the Environmental Protection Agency over its flawed report on secondhand smoking.

  79. 79.

    Barnes and Bero (1997). The authors conceded that few of the studies they reviewed disclosed industry funding, making it difficult to evaluate the potential bias it may impose—but, in so conceding, provided evidence that the tobacco industry has not inundated academic journals with pro-tobacco or anti-tax research.

  80. 80.

    Gallagher et al. (2018).

  81. 81.

    Baum (2009).

  82. 82.

    Fix et al. (2014).

  83. 83.

    Quoted from the decision in Flue-Cured Tobacco Cooperative Stabilization Corporation v. United States EPA and Carol Browner (1998).

  84. 84.

    Siegel (2007). Other studies also question the relationship between secondhand smoke exposure and lung cancer (e.g., Peres 2013).

  85. 85.

    Phillips (2007). A 2005 review funded by the American Cancer Society documented the tobacco industry’s strategies to “manipulate” information about the risks of tobacco use, including publishing studies that support their position, attacking studies that don’t, and funding research centers (Bero 2005). The strategies used by tobacco paternalists and groups like the American Cancer Society are no different.

  86. 86.

    Guindon (2014).

  87. 87.

    See “WHO report on the global tobacco epidemic 2017: Monitoring tobacco use and prevention policies,” issued in July 2017. Tobacco tax earmarks are reported in Appendix IX, Table 9.4.

  88. 88.

    Ritch and Begay (2001).

  89. 89.

    See the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report for May 25, 2012.

  90. 90.

    Ciecierski et al. (2011), Goel (2008), and Marlow (2010).

  91. 91.

    Farrelly et al. (2003). The average state spent $0.31 per capita on tobacco control programs. The coefficient is −0.53. Multiply them to get −0.1643. The average per capita cigarette consumption was 106.55.

  92. 92.

    Marlow (2007).

  93. 93.

    Based on figures reported in the American Lung Association’s 2012 through 2017 Form 990.

  94. 94.

    Based on figures reported in the American Cancer Society’s 2016 through 2018 Form 990.

  95. 95.

    Based on figures reported in the Truth Initiative’s 2013 through 2018 Form 990.

  96. 96.

    Based on figures reported in the American Nonsmokers’ Rights Foundation’s Form 990s.

  97. 97.

    A coalition of interest groups sued the state for diverting revenue earmarked for anti-tobacco programs toward prenatal care and other health services for the poor. See DiLorenzo (1997).

  98. 98.

    Burgess et al. (2009).

  99. 99.

    Gao and Baughman (2017), Jones et al. (2015), Kvasnicka et al. (2018), and Shetty et al. (2011). Substitution can be partly blamed for smoking bans’ lack of health efficacy. Some tobacco users react to smoking prohibition by switching to smokeless tobacco (Adams et al. 2013).

  100. 100.

    Adda and Cornaglia (2010).

  101. 101.

    Moore et al. (2010).

  102. 102.

    Adams and Cotti (2008). Another study—funded by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism—found no such consequences, but only looked at data in two states (Bernat et al. 2013).

  103. 103.

    Pechmann and Reibling (2006).

  104. 104.

    Boddewyn (1994).

  105. 105.

    Beleche et al. (2018).

  106. 106.

    Public Health England (2015).

  107. 107.

    Hajek et al. (2019).

  108. 108.

    Buu et al. (2018).

  109. 109.

    Levy et al. (2018).

  110. 110.

    Phillips (2009).

  111. 111.

    Rodu and Plurphanswat (2019) and Sullum (2020).

  112. 112.

    O’Donnell (2019).

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Thom, M. (2021). Taxing Tobacco. In: Taxing Sin. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-49176-5_4

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