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Taxing Soda

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Taxing Sin

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Abstract

Experts argue that soda should be taxed because it is the leading cause of obesity and a host of other problems that create unnecessary healthcare costs. Although a considerable body of research supports that argument, a just-as-considerable body of research says the opposite. Several studies reveal no direct path from soda to obesity. Research is also clear that soda taxes do not reduce consumption by much and may actually lead to higher sugar intake. That leaves little reason to continue taxing soda, but soda paternalism is likely to remain popular. That’s thanks to tireless support from special interest groups—some of whom receive funding from soda tax revenue—as well an army of experts and public health organizations.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Sugar was not always tax-free during that time; like other commodities, it was often subject to tariffs. More comprehensive discussions of sugar’s political history are found in Abbott (2008), Parker (2012), and Taubes (2016).

  2. 2.

    It may seem like mere semantics, but the sustained increase in obesity means that it is a pandemic, not an epidemic.

  3. 3.

    The press release, “WHO Urges Global Action to Curtail Consumption and Health Impacts of Sugary Drinks,” was issued October 11, 2016.

  4. 4.

    For two of many examples of experts extolling the virtues of soda taxes, see Brownell and Frieden (2009) and Brownell et al. (2009).

  5. 5.

    Nestle (2015).

  6. 6.

    Allcott et al. (2019).

  7. 7.

    Krugman (2016).

  8. 8.

    Niederdeppe et al. (2013) and McKinsey Global Institute (2014), respectively.

  9. 9.

    The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation has argued that it never adopted a position on soda taxes, but that’s not true. After a 2016 Reason magazine article noted the Foundation’s relationship with pro-tax initiatives, a representative complained that characterizing them as “a supporter of soda taxes” was “inaccurate,” claiming instead that the Foundation had “not taken a position on the issue.” But in 2009, the Foundation donated $3.5 million to the Campaign for Healthy Kids, which lobbied for soda taxes in three states (Mississippi, New Mexico, and Washington) as well as the city of Philadelphia. When the Campaign shifted tactics away from tax advocacy, Foundation officials were reportedly “disappointed” because they had “encouraged” the group “to advocate for soda taxes.” For more information, see Linnekin (2016) and Neuman (2010).

  10. 10.

    Evich (2015) and Rosenberg (2016). Other elements of billionaire Michael Bloomberg’s empire also lent help to soda paternalism. After a soda took effect in Mexico, Bloomberg News published an editorial praising the tax’s “success.” When California policymakers enacted a law to restrict local beverage taxes, a Bloomberg News editorial criticized them. See Bloomberg News (2016, 2018).

  11. 11.

    Quotes taken from the Coalition’s website; see also http://sustainweb.org/news/apr16_anatomy_campaign_win/.

  12. 12.

    Fisher (2016).

  13. 13.

    Lyon (2016).

  14. 14.

    The unions included two UNITE HERE locals, three American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees locals, and four Service Employees International Union locals.

  15. 15.

    Burness (2016).

  16. 16.

    Quotes taken from each group’s respective website.

  17. 17.

    Evich (2017).

  18. 18.

    Donaldson et al. (2015).

  19. 19.

    Some taxes took effect prior to widespread concern over soda’s effect on obesity or human health in general. Regardless of the original motivations, however, any movement to reduce or eliminate soda taxes is now challenged by invoking the paternalistic conventional wisdom that soda consumption is deleterious to health.

  20. 20.

    Adamy (2009).

  21. 21.

    The body mass index (“BMI”), which compares a person’s weight to their height, is something of an official way to determine their obesity status. The BMI is used by government agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and health groups, including the American Cancer Society, to measure obesity and report population-wide statistics about the obesity epidemic (or pandemic). The index was originally developed in 1835 by Adolphe Quetelet, a Belgian social scientist. Among other flaws, the BMI formula does not incorporate waist size or differentiate between fat and muscle mass. A great many healthy individuals are classified as obese by their government.

  22. 22.

    Malik et al. (2006).

  23. 23.

    Marlow and Shiers (2010a, b).

  24. 24.

    Turner and Chaloupka (2012) and Wescott et al. (2012). Adolescent obesity rates are drawn from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, which reported a rate in the United States of 15.4% in 2005–2006 and 16.9% in 2009–2010.

  25. 25.

    Bleich et al. (2018), Rehm et al. (2016), and Welsh et al. (2011).

  26. 26.

    Vartanian et al. (2007).

  27. 27.

    Forshee et al. (2008). The authors subsequently corrected a minor error in their analysis, but the correction did not change their findings. See also Trumbo and Rivers (2014).

  28. 28.

    Vanselow et al. (2009).

  29. 29.

    Mattes et al. (2011).

  30. 30.

    Cutler et al. (2003), Lakdawalla and Philipson (2009), Posner and Philipson (2003), Rosen (2008), Wallinga (2010), and Zhao and Kaestner (2010).

  31. 31.

    Carden and Carr (2013) and Choo et al. (2015). In 2020, the header image on the World Health Organization’s obesity fact sheet website (https://www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) depicted a smiling, but overweight person (wearing a shirt with buttons pushed to the brink) sitting at a table upon which the following foods were shown: toast (with and without avocado), yogurt, two bowls of fruit, and glasses of what appear to be juice. All are loaded with carbohydrates.

  32. 32.

    Chandon and Wansink (2007), Provencher et al. (2009), and Wansink and Chandon (2006).

  33. 33.

    Chou et al. (2004).

  34. 34.

    See “Adult Obesity Facts,” available at https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html. The study referenced is Finkelstein et al. (2009). The estimate was for the United States only.

  35. 35.

    See discussion in Bhattacharya and Sood (2011).

  36. 36.

    Allison et al. (1999), McPherson (2008), and van Baal et al. (2008).

  37. 37.

    van Baal et al. (2008).

  38. 38.

    Atella et al. (2008), Bhattacharya and Bundorf (2009), Cawley (2004), and Han et al. (2009); see also Nortan and Han (2008).

  39. 39.

    Lappé and Bronsing-Lazalde (2017); the study referenced is Malik et al. (2010). That study was a meta-analysis of eight studies on the risk of metabolic syndrome and diabetes risk imposed by sugar-sweetened beverages, but two of the eight actually looked at diet soda.

  40. 40.

    The math is straightforward: 26% of 20% is 5.2 percentage points; therefore, 26% more than 20% is 25.2%. A person who drinks no soda already has a 20–30% likelihood of developing the disease at some point in their life (Narayan et al. 2003). Risk varies by age, gender, and race, and by several lifestyle factors.

  41. 41.

    Studies show that our blood sugar level drops immediately after completing cognitively-demanding tasks (Scholey et al. 2001).

  42. 42.

    Ein-Dor et al. (2015), Henriksen et al. (2014), and Laitinen et al. (2002).

  43. 43.

    Taking it for granted that soda drinkers consume soda because of cognitive biases and not because of other reasons is an illustration of the “bias bias” mentioned in Chapter 1—i.e., the prejudice many paternalists have that compels them to blame choices they don’t like on cognitive biases.

  44. 44.

    Long et al. (2015).

  45. 45.

    Andreyeva et al. (2011) and Wang et al. (2012).

  46. 46.

    Briggs et al. (2013), Manyema et al. (2014), and Nomaguchi et al. (2017).

  47. 47.

    Bes-Rastrollo et al. (2016).

  48. 48.

    Bes-Rastrollo et al. (2016), Niebylski et al. (2015), and Shemilt et al. (2013) also report bias in favor of simulation studies but do not report a ratio.

  49. 49.

    Fletcher et al. (2015).

  50. 50.

    Fletcher et al. (2010a).

  51. 51.

    Colantuoni and Rojas (2015).

  52. 52.

    Seiler et al. (2019).

  53. 53.

    Sánchez-Romero et al. (2016).

  54. 54.

    Colchero et al. (2016).

  55. 55.

    Aguilar et al. (2015).

  56. 56.

    Caro et al. (2017).

  57. 57.

    Caro et al. (2018).

  58. 58.

    Waterlander et al. (2014).

  59. 59.

    Hanks et al. (2013).

  60. 60.

    Shemilt et al. (2013).

  61. 61.

    McKinsey Global Institute (2014).

  62. 62.

    Simulation models also tend to ignore corporate reactions. For example, most fail to anticipate beverage industry responses, such as product reformulations, designed to help products escape soda taxes and other regulations. See Shemilt et al. (2013).

  63. 63.

    Brehm and Brehm (1981).

  64. 64.

    Wilson et al. (2013).

  65. 65.

    Fletcher et al. (2010b).

  66. 66.

    Taber et al. (2015); see also Capacci et al. (2018).

  67. 67.

    Zhen et al. (2014).

  68. 68.

    Silver et al. (2017).

  69. 69.

    Nestle (2016).

  70. 70.

    O’Connor (2015); the report referenced is Bes-Rastrollo et al. (2013).

  71. 71.

    Bes-Rastrollo et al. (2016).

  72. 72.

    Kaiser et al. (2012).

  73. 73.

    Chartres et al. (2016).

  74. 74.

    Massougbodji et al. (2014).

  75. 75.

    Fabbri et al. (2018).

  76. 76.

    Cope and Allison (2010); note that Forshee et al. (2008) also find evidence of “publication bias against studies that do not report statistically significant findings.” As an example, a revealing study funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation suggested soda taxes would need to be significantly higher to influence consumption, even though the study’s analysis offered no evidence to suggest that recommendation (Powell et al. 2009).

  77. 77.

    Menachemi et al. (2013).

  78. 78.

    Niebylski et al. (2015).

  79. 79.

    Weed et al. (2011).

  80. 80.

    Tajeu et al. (2012).

  81. 81.

    The study is Brownell et al. (2009) and the New York Times article is Sanger-Katz (2016). Although the Times has quoted Brownell over 70 times, its reporters rarely identify him as a soda tax advocate or beverage industry critic.

  82. 82.

    Drenkard (2011). Note that Drenkard’s timeframe continues through 2010, one year after the Brownell et al. (2009) was published.

  83. 83.

    For FY 2017-FY 2019, the city projected soda tax revenue of between $1.60 million and $1.75 million out of total revenue of between $163.7 and $174.6 million.

  84. 84.

    See “Healthy Berkeley Program Evaluation: Executive Summary,” prepared by John Snow, Inc. and issued in January 2018.

  85. 85.

    See Zayach (2018) and the Boulder Health Equity Advisory Committee’s Health Equity Fund Allocation reports for 2018 and 2019.

  86. 86.

    De Santiago (2016); see also the Boulder Health Equity Advisory Committee’s Health Equity Fund Allocation reports for 2017, 2018, and 2019.

  87. 87.

    See the Boulder Health Equity Advisory Committee’s Health Equity Fund Allocation reports for 2018 and 2019.

  88. 88.

    Loeb (2018).

  89. 89.

    Wong (2014).

  90. 90.

    Davis et al. (2011). Despite evidence of weight gain, the study’s authors still concluded the program reduced obesity.

  91. 91.

    Savoie-Roskos et al. (2017).

  92. 92.

    Golsteyn et al. (2020).

  93. 93.

    See discussion in Bhattacharya and Sood (2007).

  94. 94.

    Marlow and Shiers (2010a, b).

  95. 95.

    See discussion in Chouinard et al. (2007), Craven et al. (2012), Mueller et al. (2017), and Snowdon (2013).

  96. 96.

    See uconnruddcenter.org/revenue-calculator-for-sugary-drink-taxes.

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    Michael Thom

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Thom, M. (2021). Taxing Soda. In: Taxing Sin. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-49176-5_2

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