Keywords

11.1 Population Growth Forms

Population is a more or less a permanent aggregation of individuals of the same species inhabiting a specific geographic area at a given time. Population ecology is the study of various factors affecting growth, distribution, natality, dispersal and mortality of individuals constituting the population. Population of a species at a specific place is never static. It is extremely dynamic and depicts variation of its size and density with time due to influence of various abiotic and biotic factors. Favourable environmental condition increases population growth whereas unfavourable conditions decrease population growth. Populations of different species inhabiting a specific common area constitute biotic community.

The accelerating pace of population growth in the last century was not due to any undue rise in birth rate of world population, but, because in the last century, there was a sharp fall in death rate, advancements in healthcare control over fatal diseases such as small pox, plague and cholera and improved food distribution system (result of food security). The average number of children born to a mother has declined from 5 to 3.5 since 1950, though the size of world population has more than doubled during the same period. However, when we are in the process of writing down this chapter the appalling shadow of Corona virus attack has already taken the lives of 37,820 individuals throughout the world (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Last updated: March 31, 2020, 04:32 GMT), which is a phase of retardation in the growing population scenario of the planet. Country-wise report of this pandemic event is highlighted in Annexure 11B.

11.1.1 Characteristics of Population

11.1.1.1 Natality (Birth Rate)

Natality is average rate of reproduction or birth per unit time. It increases the size of population. The offspring may be produced by birth, hatching or germination. The maximum natality rate achieved under ideal conditions is termed fecundity or potential natality or biotic natality.

The factors (shortage of food and living space, predation, competition, emigration, natural death, natural calamities and carrying capacity) preventing a species from achieving a potential natality are called environmental resistance or population regulation.

11.1.1.2 Mortality (Death Rate)

Mortality is the average number of individuals that die or get killed naturally per unit time. It is basically the ratio of deaths in an area to the population of that area and is expressed per 1000 per year.

11.1.1.3 Density

Density is the number of individuals of a particular species per unit area at a given time. Population density (D) can be calculated by counting all individuals present at a given time in a specific space and dividing it by the number of units of area or space (S). The units of space may be cm2, m2 or km2. For example, earthworms can be in thousands in an acre of land.

11.1.1.4 Dispersal

Population of a place is never static. Its size goes on changing due to movement of organisms into or out of a population under the influence of various abiotic and biotic factors. This process is termed population dispersal. Dispersal is of three types:

  • Emigration, i.e. permanent exit of some individuals from local population. The size of local population decreases.

  • Immigration, i.e. permanent entry of addition individuals from outside into a given population. It increases the size of local population.

  • Migration: migration involves two-way moment of the entire population. It is very common in birds and fishes.

11.1.1.5 Sex Ratio

The ratio of females to males in a population is termed as sex ratio. In 1981 in India, it was 934 females per 1000 males, while in 1991 it came down to 929 females per 1000 males. But after two decades in 2012, it rose to 940 females per 1000 males.

11.1.1.6 Age Ratio

The age structure if a given population refers to the proportion of individuals of different ages within that population. It indicates the ratio of different age groups recognized on the basis of the ability to produce. They are as follows:

11.1.1.7 Pre-reproductive Age

This is the juvenile stage of population. This comprises infants/adolescents who have not attained puberty and thus they are not capable of reproducing.

11.1.1.8 Reproductive Age

This is the age group comprising individuals capable of producing young ones.

11.1.1.9 Post-reproductive Age

This age group includes individuals who have lost the capacity to produce young ones.

Age distribution is an important characteristic of population. It affects both natality and mortality rate. Age ratio determines the reproductive capacity of the population.

11.1.1.10 Age Pyramids

The graphic representation of percentage of different age groups mentioned above is termed age pyramid.

Age pyramids are of three types:

  • Triangular age pyramid (population growth is positive, e.g. India)

  • Bell-shaped age pyramid (population growth is zero)

  • Urn-shaped age pyramid (population growth is negative)

11.1.1.11 Population Growth

Population growth is the increase in number of individuals. The rate of growth is measured by an increase in the number of individuals in a population per unit time. For controlling the growth of population, natality and mortality are important factors. The percentage ratio of natality and mortality is termed vital index.

  • $$ \mathrm{Vital}\ \mathrm{index}=\mathrm{Natality}/\mathrm{Mortality}\times 100 $$
  • If natality + immigration is greater (>) than mortality + emigration, the growth is positive.

  • If natality + immigration is lesser (<) than mortality + emigration, the growth is negative.

  • If natality + immigration is equal (=) to mortality + emigration, the growth is zero.

Average annual growth rate of human population can be calculated as follows:

  • $$ \mathrm{Average}\ \mathrm{annual}\ \mathrm{growth}\ \mathrm{rate}\left(\%\right)=\left(\mathrm{P}1-\mathrm{P}2\right)/\left(\mathrm{P}1\times \mathrm{N}\right)\times 100 $$

P1 is population size in the previous census.

P2 is population size in the present census.

N is the number of years between the two censuses.

The size of local population is affected not only by immigration, emigration, natality, mortality and biotic factors but also by environmental resistance and carrying capacity. Population growth is the result of interaction of biotic potential and environmental resistance. Two distinct patterns of population growth are identified.

11.1.1.12 S-Shaped Growth (Sigmoid)

This is the most common growth pattern (Fig. 11.1). Sigmoid growth has been divided into four phases.

  • Early or lag phase (population increases slowly and population size small)

  • Exponential or log phase (population growth increases)

  • Diminishing growth phase (population growth rate decrease)

  • Equilibrium/stationary phase (natality and mortality rates are at equilibrium, population growth zero)

Fig. 11.1
figure 1

S-Shaped Growth (Sigmoid)

11.1.1.13 J-Shaped Growth

J-shaped growth pattern has been distinct phases.

  • Early lag phase

  • Exponential (log) phase

  • Crash phase

This type of growth (Fig. 11.2) is found in algal bloom, seasonal annual plants and insect, etc.

Fig. 11.2
figure 2

J-Shaped Growth (Sigmoid)

11.2 Scenario of Global Population

The distribution of population in the world is highly non-uniform. Some areas are very thickly populated while some are sparsely populated. There are various reasons behind uneven distribution of population that can be can be categorized in to geographical factors, social and cultural factors and economic factors. The geographical factors include favourable topography, availability of mineral and freshwater resources, favourable climate soil fertility and food security that invite population and help to flourish. Indo-Gangetic Plains, Diamond Mines of South Africa, etc. are densely populated regions. The social and cultural factors encompass areas of better housing, education and health facilities and religious harmony. Places of religious and cultural significance also attract people, e.g. Varanasi, Jerusalem, etc. The economic factors also invite population due to presence of more industries, transportation and communication facilities, employment opportunities, etc.

The scenario of the present day world has changed a lot since the last few centuries. The population has increased exponentially (Table 11.1), while the area (space) remained constant (Table 11.2).

Table 11.1 Increase of population in 1 year (in %)
Table 11.2 Country-wise area per sq. mi with population density (PD)

This has hiked up the population density and created a great pressure and challenges on leaving space, resources, environmental condition, job opportunity, mobility and the quality of life.

The predicted scenario of world population in 2050 looks very alarming. The global population is expected to be around 9.80 billion people, which is 2 billion more than the present population as recorded on September 24, 2019, which is 7,732,640,485 at 3.09 pm IST from the site worldpopulationreview.com. It is expected that India will surpass China as the most populated country in the world with a population of 1.66 billion people compared to China who will occupy the second position with a population of 1.36 billion. Nigeria will become the world’s third most populous country in 2050 with a population of 4.10 million people. The fourth position will be occupied by the United States with a population of 390 million people. Vatican City has been predicted to continue being the least populated country in the World in 2050. Presently it is having a negative growth rate in the population domain and in 2050 it will have only 800 people. The overall population will increase globally due to development in the health sector and technology. Better healthcare is the road map for reducing death rate and infant mortality. Many predictions on the world population scenario are still waiting with the advancement in computer application, artificial intelligence and environment. However, it is no exaggeration to say that if the population follows the present increasing trend then there will be an acute shortage of resources in terms of space, food and various basic needs. High-end technological development in the field of agriculture, fishery and other food items coupled with International-level policy of population transference (from densely populated ecosystem to sparsely populated ecosystem) may provide a pathway to combat the threats of population explosion in 2050.

11.3 Concept of Population Control

The explosion of population in majority of the regions in the world is a matter of great concern as it is directly linked with dark chapters like poverty, job insecurity, pollution, scarcity of resources (food, space, water, etc.) and health hazards. We therefore initiated an in-depth study to scan the growth of population in different regions of the world. This data bank is sourced from CIA World Fact book and unless otherwise noted, information in this table is accurate as of January 1, 2019. Our first order analysis reflects an alarming growth of population (1 or more than 1%) in 106 countries including India (Table 11.3). This will definitely create a burden on the resource reservoir of the planet if not controlled through proper policy. Rather than simply equating population policy with family planning, the new thinking is to address some of the roots of the problem like improving women’s access to education, healthcare and economic and political decisions.

Table 11.3 Country-wise population growth rate (in %)

Family planning is a good initiative to check the accelerating phase of population growth. The History of family planning begins from the middle of nineteenth century. The Malthusian League was founded in England in 1860 to spread the message of birth control. According to Malthus theory ‘Population tends to increase geometrically while food supply increases arithmetically’. Similar efforts were also made in Sweden and France. The objective was to check/control rapid population growth and care for the health of pregnant mothers.

After World War II (1939–1945), family planning gained momentum in many countries of Asia, Africa and elsewhere. India was the first country to adopt family planning in 1951 as a National Policy. China, though initially opposed to family planning in the line with its communist ideology, went for it in 1962, a more aggressive policy of ‘one child for one couple’. Family planning methods were facilitated by advancements in sterilization, intrauterine device, pills and condoms.

In India, family planning was given special place in the country’s first 5-year plan (1951–1956). It was placed under the control of Ministry of Health and, in 1977, its nomenclature was changed to Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. All expenditure on family planning programme is borne by the Union Government. The States and Union Territories are only implementing agencies. A vast infrastructure exists in the form of community health centre, primary health centre and sub-centres.

Family planning measures include adoption of a number of contraceptive devices for preventing unwanted births. The success of these measures depends upon various socio-economic factors like education, industrial development, employments, etc.

The United Nations has played a very crucial role in popularizing family planning. This organization not only worked for creating awareness about the population problem but also provided technical and financial support for the purpose. Some of the important family planning movements are:

  1. 1.

    Oral contraceptives (polls) introduced in 1960.

  2. 2.

    Plastic IUDs made available in 1961.

  3. 3.

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) was created in 1961.

  4. 4.

    First World conference on population was organized by UNs at Bucharest (Romania) in 1974.

  5. 5.

    China started ‘one child for one couple’ campaign in 1979.

  6. 6.

    Second World War conference on population was organized by the UNs at Mexico in 1984.

  7. 7.

    Third World Conference on population was organized by the UNs at Cairo (Egypt) in 1994.

  8. 8.

    The latest World Conference on population was organized by the UNs at Cairo (Egypt) on July 11, 2012.

The net result of this family planning concept is visualized when one critically compares the average annual exponential growth rates between 1991–2001 and 2001–2011 for India. In all the States and Union Territories, the average annual exponential growth rate has reduced in 2001–2011 compared to 1991–2001 (Table 11.4).

Table 11.4 Population, percentage decadal growth and average annual exponential growth rates 1991–2001 and 2001–2011

India has also developed a much focused population policy 2020 to curb down the growth. The objective of the National Population Policy 2000 has set three objectives. One, the immediate objective, is to provide for facilities to meet the unmet needs for contraception, healthcare, infrastructure and health personnel and an integrated service delivery for basic reproductive and child healthcare. The second medium term objective is to bring the total fertility rate (TFR), i.e. the average number of children per women, in the reproductive age group, to replacement level by 2020. The third long-term objective is to achieve a stable population by 2045, a level consistent with the requirements of sustainable economic growth, social development and environmental protection.

Pointing out population growth as a major concern in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his Independence Day speech on August 15, 2019, called for a deeper thought towards the issue. Apparently, the mention was an indication that the government is devising a policy or a law for curbing the population growth in country, which may also make social responsibility and stringent rules, an integral part of government family planning plans. Modi ji said that population explosion can create new problems especially for the future generations. But there is also an enlightened section of society which is aware of this challenge. We have to ponder on this issue taking along all the sections of the society.

Estimates and statistics of population in India have been showing a slightly positive picture though the country’s population and remain a concern for social and economic reasons. While India’s population is projected to overtake China’s in less than a decade as per the United Nations ‘World Population Prospects 2019’ report released in June this year, the new projections for India are the lowest since the United Nations began these forecasts. The reason is the sharp decline in India’s population growth rates over 10 years from 2001 to 2011. According to Census 2011, the growth rate of population has declined from 21.5% during 1991–2001 to 17.7% during 2001–2011, across all religious groups.

The population explosion has major impacts on the country ranging from health, social, environmental and economic.

In July, the government had introduced the ‘Population Regulation Bill, 2019’, in Rajya Sabha that calls for punitive action against people with more than two living children and making them devoid of all government services. The proposed legislation aims at disqualification from being an elected representative, denial of financial benefits and reduction in benefits under the public distribution system (PDS) for people having more than two children. The bill also suggests that government employees should give an undertaking that they will not procreate more than two children.

Public health experts are divided over the proposed ‘Population Regulation Bill, 2019’. However, as a part of the disaster management arising out of population explosion, it is essential to provide food and economic security to this rising population through the lanes of alternative livelihoods as discussed in Annexure 11A.

11.4 Take Home Messages

  1. (A)

    Population is a more or less a permanent aggregation of individuals of the same species inhabiting a specific geographic area at a given time. Population ecology is the study of individuals of a species constituting population regarding various factors affecting growth, distribution, natality, mortality, etc. Population of a species at a specific place is never static. It is extremely dynamic and depicts variation in its size and density with time due to influence of various abiotic and biotic factors.

  2. (B)

    The accelerating pace of population growth in the last century was not due to any undue rise in birth rate of world population, but, because in the last century there was a sharp fall in death rate, advancements in healthcare control over fatal diseases such as small pox, plague and cholera and improved food distribution system (result of food security). The average number of children born to a mother has declined from 5 to 3.5 since 1950, though the size of world population has more than doubled during the same period.

  3. (C)

    Population growth is the increase in number of individuals. The rate of growth is measured by an increase in the number of individuals in a population per unit time. For controlling the growth of population, natality and mortality are important factors. The percentage ratio of natality and mortality is termed vital index. Population growth is the result of interaction of biotic potential and environmental resistance. Two distinct patterns of population growth are identified, namely, S-shaped growth (Sigmoid) and J-shaped growth.

  4. (D)

    The distribution of population in the world is highly non-uniform. Some areas are thickly populated while some are sparsely populated. There are various reasons behind uneven distribution of population that can be can be categorized in to geographical factors, social and cultural factors and economic factors. The geographical factors include favourable topography, availability of mineral and freshwater resources, favourable climate soil fertility and food security that invite population and help to flourish. The social and cultural factors encompass areas of better housing, education and health facilities and religious harmony. Places of religious and cultural significance also attract people, e.g. Varanasi, Jerusalem, etc. The economic factors invite population due to presence of more industries, transportation and communication facilities, employment opportunities, etc.

  5. (E)

    Family planning policy has been adopted to give a check to population explosion. The net result of this family planning concept is visualized when one critically compares the average annual exponential growth rates between 1991–2001 and 2001–2011 for India. In all the States and Union Territories, the average annual exponential growth rate has reduced in 2001–2011 compared to 1991–2001. Still to sustain this rising population food security and economic security is very vital, which can be achieved through alternative livelihood.

11.5 Brain Churners

Population is a burning issue in underdeveloped and developing nations of the world. It is intricately related with industrialization and urbanization and has severe adverse effects on food security, health security and above all economic security. The readers can consider this chapter as a knowledge box on these important issues, which are threatening the mankind today. This section is a sort of ‘self-appraisal approach’ as correct answers to all the questions are marked as black in the box at the end of this section.

  1. 1.

    Emigration may be defined as

    1. (a)

      Permanent exit of some individuals from local population

    2. (b)

      Temporary exit of some individuals from local population

    3. (c)

      Permanent entry of some individuals into local population

    4. (d)

      Temporary entry of some individuals into local population

  2. 2.

    Due to immigration the size of the local population

    1. (a)

      Decreases

    2. (b)

      Increases

    3. (c)

      Is not affected

    4. (d)

      None of the above

  3. 3.

    In population dynamics the, term migration involves

    1. (a)

      One-way movement

    2. (b)

      Exit from local population

    3. (c)

      Two-way movement

    4. (d)

      None of the above

  4. 4.

    Sex ratio in population study is the ratio of

    1. (a)

      Males: Females

    2. (b)

      Females: Males

    3. (c)

      Both a and b

    4. (d)

      None of the above

  1. 5.

    Pre-reproduction age comprises of

    1. (a)

      Adults

    2. (b)

      Old persons

    3. (c)

      Youths

    4. (d)

      Infants/adolescents

  2. 6.

    Triangular age pyramid in population study represents

    1. (a)

      Zero population growth

    2. (b)

      Negative population growth

    3. (c)

      Positive population growth

    4. (d)

      None of the above

  3. 7.

    Vital index in population growth is the percentage ratio of

    1. (a)

      Immigration and Emigration

    2. (b)

      Natality and Mortality

    3. (c)

      Migration and Immigration

    4. (d)

      Birth rate and Emigration

  4. 8.

    In the equilibrium phase of S-shaped population growth curve, the slope is

    1. (a)

      0

    2. (b)

      1

    3. (c)

      −1

    4. (d)

      √3

  5. 9.

    In 2050, the global population is expected to be around

    1. (a)

      6 billion

    2. (b)

      8 billion

    3. (c)

      9.5 billion

    4. (d)

      9.8 billion

  6. 10.

    In bell-shaped population age pyramid, the population growth is

    1. (a)

      0

    2. (b)

      +ve

    3. (c)

      −ve

    4. (d)

      None of the above

  7. 11.

    Crash phase is a part of

    1. (a)

      S-shaped growth curve

    2. (b)

      J-shaped growth curve

    3. (c)

      Age pyramid

    4. (d)

      None of the above

  8. 12.

    In S-shaped growth curve the population increase during

    1. (a)

      Early or lag phase

    2. (b)

      Exponential or log phase

    3. (c)

      Diminishing phase

    4. (d)

      Stationary phase

  9. 13.

    Population is the permanent aggregation of individuals of

    1. (a)

      Same species

    2. (b)

      Different species

    3. (c)

      Same community

    4. (d)

      Different communities

  10. 14.

    Natality is defined as

    1. (a)

      Average rate of reproduction/unit time

    2. (b)

      Average rate of death/unit time

    3. (c)

      Average rate of accident/unit time

    4. (d)

      None of the above

  11. 15.

    The nature of population is

    1. (a)

      Static

    2. (b)

      Dynamic

    3. (c)

      Both a and b

    4. (d)

      None of the above

  12. 16.

    Biotic community is formed by populations of

    1. (a)

      Different species

    2. (b)

      Same species

    3. (c)

      Both a and b

    4. (d)

      None of the above

  13. 17.

    Population explosion is due to

    1. (a)

      High birth rate and low death rate

    2. (b)

      High death rate and low death rate

    3. (c)

      Equal death and birth rates

    4. (d)

      None of the above

  14. 18.

    In 2050 the least populated country in the World will be (predicted)

    1. (a)

      Nigeria

    2. (b)

      Vatican City

    3. (c)

      Indonesia

    4. (d)

      Bangladesh

  15. 19.

    Age ratio indicates the ratio of different age groups on the basis of

    1. (a)

      Their death

    2. (b)

      Their birth

    3. (c)

      Their ability to produce

    4. (d)

      None of the above

  16. 20.

    Fecundity is the

    1. (a)

      Maximum natality rate achieved under ideal condition

    2. (b)

      Minimum natality rate under ideal condition

    3. (c)

      Maximum death rate

    4. (d)

      None of the above

Answer Sheet

figure a