Abstract
Traditionally, researchers measure fertility changes by analyzing the total fertility rate, mean age at childbirth, and parity progression ratios using period and cohort perspectives. However, the period and cohort indexes have well-known limitations: period indexes use a synthetic-cohort approach, while cohort indexes provide an outdated picture of current fertility patterns because they are based on information on populations that are no longer of childbearing ages. The Cross-sectional Average Length of Life by Parity (CALP) is introduced here as an alternative way of understanding fertility trends. The CALP shows the length of time women spend in each parity during reproductive age and is a period measure including all the cohort fertility information of reproductive-age women at a given time. By selecting the US data from the Human Fertility Database for illustration, the CALP is calculated using a hierarchical multistate life table model. The CALP for the year 2015 shows that women in the US spend 47% (17.91/38 years) of their reproductive years from ages 12 to 50 in childlessness, followed by 16%, 19% and 11% in parities 1, 2, and 3, respectively.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Bongaarts, J., & Sobotka, T. (2012). A demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility. Population and Development Review, 38(1), 83–120.
Brouard, N. (1986). Structure et dynamique des populations. La pyramide des années à vivre, aspects nationaux et exemples régionaux. Espace Populations Sociétés, 2(14–15), 157–168.
Canudas-Romo, V., & Guillot, M. (2015). Truncated cross-sectional average length of life: A measure for comparing the mortality history of cohorts. Population Studies, 69(2), 147–159.
Frejka, T. (2008). Overview chapter 2: Parity distribution and completed family size in Europe: Incipient decline of the two-child family model? Demographic Research, 19(4), 47–72.
Frejka, T., & Calot, G. (2001). Cohort reproductive patterns in low-fertility countries. Population and Development Review, 27(1), 103–132.
Frejka, T., & Sardon, J. (2007). Cohort birth order, parity progression ratio and parity distribution trends in developed countries. Demographic Research, 16(11), 315–374.
Guillot, M. (2003). The cross-sectional average length of life (CAL): A cross-sectional mortality measure that reflects the experience of cohorts. Population Studies, 57(1), 41–54.
Human Fertility Database (HFD) organised by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany) and Vienna Institute of Demography (Austria). HFD is available at www.humanfertility.org (data downloaded on 30th of July 2019).
Kneale, D., & Joshi, H. (2008). Postponement and childlessness - evidence from two British cohorts. Demographic Research, 19(58), 1935–1968.
Luy, M. (2011). Tempo effects and their relevance in demographic analysis. Comparative Population Studies, 35(3), 415–446.
Mills, M., Rindfuss, R. R., McDonald, P., te Velde, E., & on behalf of the ESHRE Reproduction and Society Task Force. (2011). Why do people postpone parenthood? Reasons and social policy incentives. Human Reproduction Update, 17(6), 848–860.
Mogi, R., Nisén, J., & Canudas-Romo, V. (2019). Cross-sectional average length of life childless. Paper presented at the Population Association of America; Austin, TX, the US. 11th of April 2019.
Myrskylä, M., Goldstein, J., & Cheng, Y. A. (2013). New cohort fertility forecasts for the developed world: Rises, falls, and reversals. Population and Development Review, 39(1), 31–56.
Schmidt, L., Sobotka, T., Bentzen, J. G., Nyboe Andersen, A., & on behalf of the ESHRE Reproduction and Society Task Force. (2012). Demographic and medical consequences of the postponement of parenthood. Human Reproduction Update, 18(1), 29–43.
Schoen, R. (2016). Hierarchical multistate models from population data: An application to parity statuses. PeerJ, 4(e2535), 1–11.
Schoen, R., & Canudas-Romo, V. (2006). Multistate cohort models with proportional transfer rates. Demography, 43(3), 553–568.
Sobotka, T., Zeman, K., Potančoková, M., Eder, J., Brzozowska, Z., Beaujouan, É., & Matysiak, A. (2015). European fertility datasheet 2015 [electronic resource]. Vienna: Vienna Institute of Demography/Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU). http://fertilitydatasheet.org/
Toulemon, L. (1996). Very few couples remain voluntarily childless. Population an English Selection, 8, 1–27.
Zeman, K., Beaujouan, E., Brzozowska, Z., & Sobotka, T. (2018). Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: Decomposition using parity progression ratios. Demographic Research, 38(25), 651–690.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Appendix
Appendix
The age- and cohort-specific transition rates from parity i to parity j (j = i + 1) are denoted as mij(a, t − x) and are calculated following the HFD protocol:
where h = 1, 2, or 3, \( {b}_i^c\left(a,t-x\right) \) corresponds to the cohort life table function of the birth rate of women of parity i at exact age a born in year t – x, and \( {l}_i^c\left(a,t-x\right) \) estimates the parity-specific number of persons at age a from the cohort born in year t – x.
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Mogi, R., Canudas-Romo, V. (2020). Cross-Sectional Average Length of Life by Parity: Illustration of US Cohorts of Reproductive Age in 2015. In: Schoen, R. (eds) Analyzing Contemporary Fertility. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 51. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48519-1_13
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48519-1_13
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-48518-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-48519-1
eBook Packages: Social SciencesSocial Sciences (R0)