Abstract
There are several megatrends which bring to bear the realization that we live in a digital world. This is turn affects the direction aviation is taking. A megatrend is a global direction towards which a large transformative force drives the entire world. It is not sectarian, affecting merely a part of the world; region; or country. Megatrends affect our existential life and connect everything: data; processes; humans; and geo-political instability. Thus, megatrends represent an important shift in the progress of a society. The megatrends are: the global economic shift from the West to the East; increasing urbanization; demographic changes; innovative technology; climate change; and global connectivity.
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Notes
- 1.
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is the specialized agency of the United Nations handling issues of international civil aviation. ICAO was established by the Convention on International Civil Aviation, signed at Chicago on 7 December 1944 (Chicago Convention). The overarching objectives of ICAO, as contained in Article 44 of the Convention is to develop the principles and techniques of international air navigation and to foster the planning and development of international air transport to meet the needs of the peoples for safe, regular, efficient and economical air transport. ICAO has 193 member States, who become members of ICAO by ratifying or otherwise issuing notice of adherence to the Chicago Convention.
- 2.
Global economy in 2019: Growth beginning to fray, The News International, Monday 18 February 2019. See https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/404996-global-economy-in-2019-growth-beginning-to-fray.
- 3.
Article 50 provides inter alia that any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements; a Member State which decides to withdraw must notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union is required to negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement must be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It will l be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
- 4.
The Treaty of Lisbon was signed by the EU Members on 13 December 2007 and entered into force in December 2009.
- 5.
The EU-US Air Transport Agreement signed on 25 and 30 April 2007, the main purpose of which is to establish a Trans-Atlantic open aviation area, was provisionally applied from 30 March 2008 for all EU Member States, and Amended by a Protocol, signed and provisionally applied on 24 June 2010. Norway and Iceland accession to the Air Transport Agreement as amended by the Protocol is provisionally applied from 21 June 2011.
- 6.
EUROCONTROL, which is the European Organisation for Safety of Air Navigation and is made up of 39-member States of the European Community, forecasts that there will be 16.9 million aircraft movements in Europe in 2030, which is approximately 2% more than the movements in 2009. The number of flights concerned is estimated between 13.1 and 20.9 million flights during 2030.
- 7.
A study of the effects of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union on airlines flying to and from the UK, R-038-001-001 Final at https://www.iata.org/policy/consumer-pax-rights/Documents/iata-brexit-study.pdf.
- 8.
Id. 28.
- 9.
No-deal Brexit could hit UK-EU flights, says Whitehall, The Guardian at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/24/uk-eu-flights-would-cease-immediately-in-event-of-no-deal-brexit.
- 10.
Cathy Buyck, EU Reveals ‘Basic Connectivity’ No-deal Brexit Air Traffic Plan, - AIN Online, December 19, 2018. See https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2018-12-19/eu-reveals-basic-connectivity-no-deal-brexit-air-traffic-plan.
- 11.
ICAO World Civil Aviation Report: 2016, at 22.
- 12.
- 13.
Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2016–2017. http://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/cargo-forecast/.
- 14.
Aviation Benefits: Contributing to Global Economic Prosperity, Uniting Aviation: Bringing Air Transport Partners Together, http://www.unitingaviation.com/strategic-objective/economic-development/aviation-benefits-for-a-better-future/.
- 15.
Outlook to 2042, ICAO World Civil Aviation Report 2016, supra, note 11 at 44. In 2015 3.5 billion passengers were carried by air worldwide.
- 16.
John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer, Airbus Industrie, Airbus Market Forecast 2010-2029, https://www.scribd.com/document/66638952/Airbus-Global-Market-Forecast-2010-2029.
- 17.
International Tourist Arrivals Reach 1.4 billion Two Years Ahead of Forecasts: UNWTO: Geneva, 21 January 2019. See http://www2.unwto.org/press-release/2019-01-21/international-tourist-arrivals-reach-14-billion-two-years-ahead-forecasts. See also generally Tourism Towards 2030: Global Overview, UNWTO: Madrid at https://www.globalwellnesssummit.com/wp-content/uploads/Industry-Research/Global/2011_UNWTO_Tourism_Towards_2030.pdf.
- 18.
Artificial Intelligence in Aviation. What is it and when is it Coming? ICAO Now, 17 August 2006, at https://www.icaonow.com.br/single-post/2017/04/16/Artificial-Intelligence-in-Aviation-What-is-it-and-when-is-it-coming-English-Practice.
- 19.
Ibid. Identified as at risk are physical jobs that are repetitive in nature and data collecting and processing jobs.
Less at risk further down the line are: physical unpredictable jobs and Jobs that require application of expertise. Jobs that are most difficult to replace are Jobs that involve emotional interaction with people. A separate study has concluded that the computer/digital revolution favours more skilled over less skilled workers and it reduces employment and constrains wage growth. See Tyson and Spence (2017), p. 171.
- 20.
SITA is a multinational information technology company providing information technology and telecommunication services to the air transport industry. The company provides its services to over 430 members and 2800 customers worldwide which is around 90% of the world’s airline business.
It is the world’s leading specialist in air transport communications and information technology.
- 21.
Air Transport Sector Turning to Artificial Intelligence, CXOtoday.com. Sep 26, 2017. See http://www.cxotoday.com/story/air-transport-sector-turning-to-artificial-intelligence/.
- 22.
- 23.
- 24.
Blockchain in Aviation: Exploring the Fundamentals, Use Cases and Industry Initiatives, White Paper, IATA: October 2018, at 14.
- 25.
Artificial intelligence will become strong enough to be a concern, says Bill Gates, The Guardian, 29 January 2015 at https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/jan/29/artificial-intelligence-strong-concern-bill-gates.
- 26.
Sanya Burgess, Stephen Hawking: AI could be ‘worst event in the history of our civilisation’, The National, 7 November 2017 at https://www.thenational.ae/business/technology/stephen-hawking-ai-could-be-worst-event-in-the-history-of-our-civilisation-1.673585.
- 27.
Elon Musk: artificial intelligence is our biggest existential threat, The Guardian, 27 October 2017, at https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/oct/27/elon-musk-artificial-intelligence-ai-biggest-existential-threat.
- 28.
David Rivers, AI Warning: Robots Will Need “Chipping” to Stop Murderous Thoughts, Daily Star, 22nd February 2018, at https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/683829/michio-kaku-robots-artificial-intelligence-murderous-thoughts-reddit-science.
- 29.
Ray Kurzweil, Don’t Fear Artificial Intelligence, TIME, December 19, 2014 at http://time.com/3641921/dont-fear-artificial-intelligence/.
- 30.
Peng et al. (2006a), p. 2.
- 31.
Peng et al. (2006b), p. 7.
- 32.
Sharma (2016), p. 36.
- 33.
Ibid.
- 34.
An OECD Horizon Scan of Megatrends and Technology Trends In The Context Of Future Research Policy, Danish Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation, 2016, http://ufm.dk/en/publications/2016/files/an-oecd-horizon-scan-of-megatrends-and-technology-trends-in-the-context-of-future-research-policy.pdf.
- 35.
Richard fry, Millennials overtake Baby Boomers as America’s largest generation, April 26 2016, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/25/millennials-overtake-baby-boomers/.
- 36.
Millennial Travel Trends: A Look at the Largest Generations’ Habits, HighTech Amsterdam, Talking Hospitality Tech, 28–30 March 2017, at http://www.hospitalitynet.org/news/4075929.html.
- 37.
Case (2016), pp. 42–43.
- 38.
Laura Shin, How The Millennial Generation Could Affect The Economy Over The Next Five Years, Women@Forbes, April 30 2015. see https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2015/04/30/how-the-millennial-generation-could-affect-the-economy-over-the-next-five-years/#549bf8132e15.
- 39.
United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, Stockholm, 1972. See UN. Doc. A/CONF.48/14 June 1972, reprinted in 11 ILM 1416 (1972).
- 40.
Atapattu (2006), p. 1.
- 41.
United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) held in Rio de Janerio, Brazil, 3 to 14 June 1992 See UN Doc.A/CONF.151/26, reprinted in 31 ILM 874(1992). It must be mentioned that in the 1980s the UN set up the World Commission on Environment and Development, also called the Brundtland Commission. They produced “Our Common Future”, otherwise known as the Brundtland Report, which framed much of what would become the 40 chapters of Agenda 21 and the 27 principles of the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development. It defined sustainable development as development which; “meets the needs of present generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”.
- 42.
The United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) was established by the UN General Assembly in December 1992 to ensure effective follow-up of United Nations Conference on Environment and Development UNCED, also known as the Earth Summit. The Commission is responsible for reviewing progress in the implementation of Agenda 21 and the Rio Declaration; as well as providing policy guidance to follow up the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (JPOI) at the local, national, regional and international levels. The JPOI reaffirmed that the CSD is the high-level forum for sustainable development within the United Nations system.
- 43.
Atapattu (2006), note 40, p. 9.
- 44.
The Paris Agreement’s central aim is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 °C. Additionally, the agreement aims to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impact of climate change. To reach these ambitious goals, appropriate financial flows, a new technology framework and an enhanced capacity building framework will be put in place, thus supporting action by developing countries and the most vulnerable countries, in line with their own national objectives. The Agreement also provides for enhanced transparency of action and support through a more robust transparency framework.
- 45.
Convention on International Civil aviation signed at Chicago on 7 December 1944. ICAO Doc 7300/9: 2006.
- 46.
The maximum permissible take-off mass of the aircraft according to the certificate of airworthiness, the flight manual or other official documents. The maximum certificated take-off mass is a limitation associated with an individual aircraft serial number.
- 47.
Annex 16 Part IV, Chapter 2.1.1.
- 48.
Annex 16 Part IV Id., at 3.3.1.
- 49.
For example, the second Global Air Navigation Industry Symposium (GANIS/2) in 2017 which addressed air navigation systems and how they could cope with future increases in air transport and congestion both in the skies and on ground at airports.
- 50.
There is no precise date for when Generation Z begins, but demographers and researchers typically use the mid-1990s to mid-2000s as starting birth years. There is little consensus regarding ending birth years.
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Abeyratne, R. (2020). International Aviation and Megatrends. In: Aviation in the Digital Age. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48218-3_2
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