Abstract
Evidence from Roman Egypt clearly shows demographic disruptions around the time of the Antonine plague. Recently, scholars have reinterpreted this evidence as showing a multi-faceted crisis—one caused not only by an outbreak of disease but also by agricultural, social and ecological factors. This chapter rethinks recent applications of equilibrium theory to second-century AD wheat prices in order to show that either the Antonine plague was not as severe as some scholars claim or perhaps the Roman economy was not primary connected via markets.
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Notes
- 1.
Howgego, “Some Numismatic Approaches to Quantifying the Roman Economy,” 289.
- 2.
Littman and Littman, “Galen and the Antonine Plague,” 252–255.
- 3.
Gilliam, “The Plague under Marcus Aurelius,” 250.
- 4.
Exceptions being Salmon, Population et Dépopulation, 1974; Bruun, “The Antonine Plague and the ‘Third-Century Crisis’,” 209.
- 5.
Paine and Storey, “The Alps as a Barrier to Epidemic Disease”.
- 6.
Greenberg, “Plagued by Doubt”; Kron, “Nutrition, Hygiene and Mortality”.
- 7.
Kron, “Nutrition, Hygiene and Mortality,” 239.
- 8.
Bruun “The Antonine Plague in Rome and Ostia”; Bruun, “The Antonine Plague and the ‘Third-Century Crisis’”; Bruun “La Mancanza Di Prove”.
- 9.
I wish I were the first to apply this calque to the Antonine plague. See Cleary, The Roman West, 466.
- 10.
Duncan-Jones, “The Impact of the Antonine Plague”; Scheidel “A Model of Demographic and Economic Change”; Scheidel, “Roman Wellbeing”; Rathbone, “Villages, Land and Population”.
- 11.
So convincing, in fact, that James Greenberg’s critique was mostly concerned with the interpretation of the data rather than questioning whether the datasets were actually valid in the first place. See Greenberg, “Plagued by Doubt”.
- 12.
Harris, “The Great Pestilence,” 334.
- 13.
Rathbone, “Roman Egypt,” 700, emphasis added. Rathbone offered a more cautious view in earlier work: “The Antonine plague thus does seem to have affected at least Lower and Middle Egypt from about 166 CE into the late 170s, and to have been characterized by sporadic, brief but devastating outbreaks in individual localities”; see Rathbone, “Villages, Land and Population,” 119.
- 14.
Wilson, “The Mediterranean Environment,” 265. See also the work of Blouin, Triangular Landscapes.
- 15.
Elliott, “Climate Change, Plague and Local Violence”.
- 16.
The clearest, most conscientious application of both frameworks that I have read is in Jongman, “The New Economic History”.
- 17.
Temin, “Market Economy” 170 Expanded upon in Temin, “Price Behaviour,” 204 Contra Bang, “Trade and Empire,” 25 n.59; Haley, Baetica Felix, 11–12.
- 18.
Scheidel, “Roman Wellbeing,” 280–285.
- 19.
Hence, related neo-classical simplifications such as perfect competition, perfect knowledge and profit maximization.
- 20.
Malthus, Thomas. An Essay on the Principle of Population. London, 1798, 4.5.1.
- 21.
Clark, A Farewell to Alms, 23.
- 22.
Malthus, Thomas. An Essay on the Principle of Population. London, 1798, 4.5.1.
- 23.
Scheidel, “Roman Real Wages in Context”; Scheidel, “Roman Wellbeing”; Scheidel, “A Model of Demographic and Economic Change”.
- 24.
Johnson, Roman Egypt; Drexhage, Preise, Mieten/Pachten, Kosten und Löhne; Rathbone, “Prices and Price Formation in Roman Egypt”; An updated list of wheat prices is found in Rathbone and Von Reden, “Mediterranean Grain Prices”.
- 25.
Rathbone, “Monetisation Not Price Inflation”.
- 26.
Synthesis in Temin, The Roman Market Economy, 74–75. Earlier sources: Rathbone, “Prices and Price Formation in Roman Egypt”; Bagnall, Currency and Inflation, arguing for some changes in prices, partly due to plague and partly due to monetary factors, is Harper, “People, Plagues, and Prices”.
- 27.
R-squared is a statistical measure which shows how much variance in a dataset is explained by the variable(s) in the model.
- 28.
I wish to again express my deepest gratitude for Kyle’s generosity in sending his JEH paper in which he dissects this data, as well as links to the data tables, ahead of publication. This section would be impoverished if not obsolete (!) without his generosity.
- 29.
Harper, “People, Plagues, and Prices,” 815.
- 30.
My concerns echo those of Wilson, “Quantifying Roman Economic Performance,” 154.
- 31.
Rathbone, “Roman Egypt,” 713; Rathbone and Von Reden, “Mediterranean Grain Prices,” 178.
- 32.
Harper, “People, Plagues, and Prices,” 816.
- 33.
Harper, “People, Plagues, and Prices,” 20.
- 34.
Rathbone also dates the second band “from the AD 190s”. See Rathbone and Von Reden 2015: 177.
- 35.
Rathbone and Von Reden, “Mediterranean Grain Prices,” 178.
- 36.
Rathbone, “Prices and Price Formation,” 198.
- 37.
Discussion on artabas as a measurement in Rathbone 1991: 468–469; Mayerson 2000.
- 38.
P. Col. 6.123.
- 39.
Julian. Mis. 368a–370d. See also Amm. Marc. 22.12–14 and other sources mentioned in Wiemer 1995: 269ff.
- 40.
P. Oxy 66.4527.
- 41.
van Minnen 2001.
- 42.
Similar thoughts offered by Scheidel 2014a: 213.
- 43.
Rathbone, “Prices and Price Formation,” 198–210, 223–239.
- 44.
Rathbone, “Prices and Price Formation,” 210.
- 45.
See chapter 1, p. 5.
- 46.
This would fit remarkably well with the argument in Scheidel, “Roman Wellbeing”.
- 47.
Scheidel, “In Search of Roman Economic Growth”, critiqued in Bagnall, “The Effects of Plague. More recent thoughts in Scheidel, “Roman Wellbeing”.
- 48.
Hansen and Prescott, “Malthus to Solow”.
- 49.
See Elliott, “The Acceptance and Value of Roman Silver Coinage; Butcher and Ponting, “The Beginning of the End”; now see Elliott, “Silver Debasement, Climate and Plague”.
- 50.
Rathbone? “Monetisation Not Price Inflation”.
- 51.
Stathakopoulos, Famine and Pestilence, 52.
- 52.
Euseb. Hist. eccl. 8.14.6. Connection established by Stathakopoulos, Famine and Pestilence, 178–179.
- 53.
Summary in Stathakopoulos, Famine and Pestilence, 51–52.
- 54.
Erdkamp, The Grain Market in the Roman Empire; Bang, The Roman Bazaar.
- 55.
Reynolds, “The Supply Networks”.
- 56.
Explained most effectively in Temin, “The Contribution of Economics,” 65.
- 57.
Scheidel, “Real Wages in Early Economies,” 453.
- 58.
Nov. Iust. 122.
- 59.
Little, “Life and Afterlife,” 21 Quantitative data appears in Scheidel, “Real Wages in Early Economies”.
- 60.
Scheidel, “Model of Demographic and Economic Change”. See graphic form in Scheidel, “Roman Wellbeing,” 284.
- 61.
Scheidel, “Roman Wellbeing,” 285.
- 62.
Scheidel, “Roman Wellbeing,” 286.
- 63.
Harris, “The Great Pestilence” 336.
- 64.
Bray, Armies of Pestilence, 12; Grant, The Antonines, 32; Goodman, The Roman World, 82; Freeman, Egypt, Greece, and Rome, 709; Gourevitch, Limos Kai Loimos, 57; Stathakopoulos, Famine and Pestilence, 94.
- 65.
Jer. Chron. 236, 237; Eutr. 8.12.
- 66.
Beck, “Qui Mortalitatis Causa Convenerunt”.
- 67.
Birley, “Hadrian to the Antonines,” 178.
- 68.
McGinn, Prostitution, Sexuality, and the Law, 127–129; Phang, The Marriage of Roman Soldiers, 52–61.
- 69.
Lee, “The Empire at War,” 118.
- 70.
Alston, “Roman Military Pay,” 115. The same rates appear in Duncan-Jones, Money and Government, 34; see also Speidel, “Roman Army Pay Scales Revisited”.
- 71.
Phang, Roman Military Service, 168.
- 72.
They are listed in Alston, “Roman Military Pay,” 115–120.
- 73.
Again, it is Temin who explains the concept best; see Temin, “Price Behaviour,” 190.
- 74.
Scheidel, “Roman Real Wages in Context”.
- 75.
Scheidel, “In Search of Roman Economic Growth,” 60.
- 76.
SHA Marc. 21.6–7; Oros. 7.15.6, 27.7. See also ILS 2304, as discussed in Duncan-Jones, Structure and Scale, 72.
- 77.
A list of all donativa attested in literary sources appears in Duncan-Jones, Money and Government, 257.
- 78.
Rathbone, “Monetisation Not Price Inflation,” 323.
- 79.
Indeed, if I had included the previous decade (150s CE), the first entry for 150 CE would have seen legionary pay at just over 787 grams of silver compared to just over 436 grams of silver in 196/7 CE.
- 80.
Elliott, “The Acceptance and Value of Roman Silver Coinage”; Elliott, Economic Theory and the Roman Monetary Economy, 126–140. See also Bransbourg, “Fides et Pecunia Numerata. Part I”; Bransbourg, “Fides et Pecunia Numerata, Part II “. Also helpful is Scheidel, “Coin Quality, Coin Quantity, and Coin Value”; Haklai-Rotenberg, Aurelian’s Monetary Reform”. The issue is addressed with less clarity in Katsari, The Roman Monetary System. See also Crawford, “Money and Exchange”.
- 81.
Kehoe, “Contract Labor,” 127.
- 82.
Scheidel, “Roman Wellbeing,’ 285.
- 83.
Roth, The Logistics of the Roman Army at War, 14–15; Speidel, “Roman Army Pay Scales Revisited,” 360.
- 84.
Rathbone, “Earnings and Costs”, 310.
- 85.
Elliott, “Disease, Grain Supply and State Inflexibility”. See also Erdkamp, The Grain Market; Erdkamp, “The Food Supply of the Capital”; Erdkamp, “Economic Growth”; Silver, “The Plague under Commodus”; Bang, The Roman Bazaar; Garnsey, Famine and Food Supply.
- 86.
Elliott, “Silver Debasement, Climate and Plague”; Elliott, “Disease, Grain Supply and State Inflexibility; Elliott, “Climate Change, Plague and Local Violence”; Elliott, “The Acceptance and Value of Roman Silver Coinage”.
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Elliott, C.P. (2021). Disease Proxies and the Diagnosis of the Late Antonine Economy. In: Verboven, K. (eds) Complexity Economics. Palgrave Studies in Ancient Economies. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-47898-8_9
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