Skip to main content

Introduction to State-Space Models

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
An Introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo

Part of the book series: Springer Series in Statistics ((SSS))

Summary

The sequential analysis of state-space models remains to this day the main application of Sequential Monte Carlo. The intent of this Chapter is to define informally state-space models, and discuss several typical examples of such models from different areas of Science.

However, we warn readers beforehand that we will need the mathematical machinery developed in the following chapters to define in sufficient generality state-space models, to develop recursions for filters and smoothers, and design a variety of simulation algorithms, including particle filters.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

eBook
USD 16.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 16.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 99.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Bibliography

  • Brockwell, P. J., & Davis, R. A. (2006). Time series: Theory and methods. Springer series in statistics. New York: Springer. Reprint of the second (1991) edition.

    Google Scholar 

  • Caron, F., Davy, M., Duflos, E., & Vanheeghe, P. (2007). Particle filtering for multisensor data fusion with switching observation models: Application to land vehicle positioning. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 55(6, part 1), 2703–2719.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cunha, F., Heckman, J., & Schennach, S. (2010). Estimating the technology of congitive and noncognitive skill formation. Econometrica, 78, 883–931.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dean, T. A., Singh, S. S., Jasra, A., & Peters, G. W. (2014). Parameter estimation for hidden Markov models with intractable likelihoods. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 41(4), 970–987.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Durbin, J., & Koopman, S. J. (2012). Time series analysis by state space methods. Oxford statistical science series (Vol. 38, 2nd ed.). Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Fasiolo, M., Pya, N., & Wood, S. N. (2016). A comparison of inferential methods for highly nonlinear state space models in ecology and epidemiology. Statistical Science, 31(1), 96–118.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Fearnhead, P. (2004). Particle filters for mixture models with an unknown number of components. Statistics and Computing, 14(1), 11–21.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Flury, T., & Shephard, N. (2011). Bayesian inference based only on simulated likelihood: Particle filter analysis of dynamic economic models. Econometric Theory, 27, 933–956.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Francq, C., & Zakoian, J.-M. (2011). GARCH models: Structure, statistical inference and financial applications. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Frühwirth-Schnatter, S. (2006). Finite mixture and Markov switching models. Springer series in statistics. New York: Springer.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Griffin, J. E. (2017). Sequential Monte Carlo methods for mixtures with normalized random measures with independent increments priors. Statistics and Computing, 27(1), 131–145.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Kim, S., Shephard, N., & Chib, S. (1998). Stochastic volatility: Likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models. The Review of Economic Studies, 65(3), 361–393.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koyama, S., Castellanos Pérez-Bolde, L., Shalizi, C. R., & Kass, R. E. (2010). Approximate methods for state-space models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(489), 170–180. With supplementary material available on line.

    Google Scholar 

  • Linzer, D. A. (2013). Dynamic Bayesian forecasting of presidential elections in the states. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 108(501), 124–134.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Mirauta, B., Nicolas, P., & Richard, H. (2014). Parseq: Reconstruction of microbial transcription landscape from RNA-Seq read counts using state-space models. Bioinformatics, 30, 1409–16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Papaspiliopoulos, O., Ruggiero, M., & Spanò, D. (2016). Conjugacy properties of time-evolving Dirichlet and gamma random measures. Electronic Journal of Statistics, 10(2), 3452–3489.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Rabiner, L. R. (1989). A tutorial on hidden Markov models and selected applications in speech recognition. Proceedings of the IEEE, 77, 257–284.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rasmussen, D. A., Ratmann, O., & Koelle, K. (2011). Inference for nonlinear epidemiological models using genealogies and time series. PLOS Computational Biology, 7(8), e1002136, 11.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vo, B.-N., Singh, S., & Doucet, A. (2003). Sequential Monte Carlo implementation of the PHD filter for multi-target tracking. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Information Fusion (pp. 792–799).

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilkinson, D. J. (2006). Stochastic modelling for systems biology. Chapman & Hall/CRC mathematical and computational biology series. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wood, S. N. (2010). Statistical inference for noisy nonlinear ecological dynamic systems. Nature, 466(7310), 1102–1104.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu, Y., & Meng, X.-L. (2011). To center or not to center: that is not the question—An ancillarity-sufficiency interweaving strategy (ASIS) for boosting MCMC efficiency. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 20(3), 531–570.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Chopin, N., Papaspiliopoulos, O. (2020). Introduction to State-Space Models. In: An Introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo. Springer Series in Statistics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-47845-2_2

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics