Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Building on Foundations: An Interview with Roger Cooke

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

Part of the book series: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science ((ISOR,volume 293))

  • 706 Accesses

Abstract

Prof. Roger Cooke is the Chauncey Starr Senior Fellow at Resources for Future in Washington and an emeritus professor at the Technical University of Delft in The Netherlands. This chapter presents an interview with Roger Cooke in which he reflects on the Classical Model and the processes of SEJ in conversation with Gabriela F.(Tina) Nane and Anca M. Hanea.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Clemen, R. T. (2008). Comment on Cooke’s classical method. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Expert Judgement, 93(5), 760–765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2008.02.003.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Colson, A. R., & Cooke, R. M. (2017). Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 163, 109–120.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cooke, R. M. (1991). Experts in uncertainty: opinion and subjective probability in science. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooke, R. M. (2004). The anatomy of the Squizzle—the role of operational definitions in science. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 85(2004), 313–319.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cooke, R. M. (2008) Special issue on expert judgment, Editor’s Introduction Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 93(5), Available online 12 March 2007.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lin, S. W., & Cheng, C. H. (2009). The reliability of aggregated probability judgments obtained through Cooke’s Classical Model. Journal of Modelling in Management, 4(2), 149–161.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooke, R. M. (2012). Pitfalls of ROAT cross-validation: comment on effects of overconfidence and dependence on aggregated probability judgments. Journal of Modelling in Management, 7(1), 20–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooke, R. M. (2013). Uncertainty analysis comes to integrated assessment models for climate change… and conversely. Climatic Change, 117(3), 467–479.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cooke. R. M. (2015). Messaging climate change uncertainty. Nature Climate Change, 5(1).

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooke, R. M., & Goossens, L. J. H. (2000). Procedures guide for structured expert judgment Project report EUR 18820EN, Nuclear science and technology, specific programme Nuclear fission safety 1994–98, Report to: European Commission. Luxembourg, Euratom. Also in Radiation Protection Dosimetry Vol. 90 No. 3.2000, 64 7, pp. 303–311.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooke, R. M., & Goossens, L. H. J. (2008). TU delft expert judgment data base. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Expert Judgement, 93(5), 657–674.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cooke, R. M., Marti, H.D. & Mazzuchi, T. A., (2020) Expert Forecasting with and without Uncertainty Quantification and Weighting: What Do the Data Say? To appear in International Journal of Forecasting.

    Google Scholar 

  • DeGroot, M. (1974). Reaching consensus. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69, 118–121.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eggstaff, J. W., Mazzuchi, T. A., & Sarkani, S. (2014). The effect of the number of seed variables on the performance of cooke’s classical model. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 121(January), 72–82.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flandoli, F., Giorgi, E., Aspinall, W. P., & Neri, A. (2011). Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the classical model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 96(10), 1292–1310.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanea, A. M., McBride, M. F., Burgman, M. A., Wintle, M. A. (2016). Classical meets modern in the IDEA protocol for structured expert judgement. Journal of Risk Research, 21(4), Published online: 09 Aug 2016.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lehrer, K., & Wagner, C. (1981). Rational consensus in science and society. Dordrecht: D. Reidel.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Lin, S. W., & Cheng, C. H. (2008) Can cooke’s model sift out better experts and produce well-calibrated aggregated probabilities? In IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, IEEM 2008, pp. 425–29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lin, S. W., & Cheng, C. H. (2012). Effects of overconfidence and dependence on aggregated probability judgments. Journal of Modelling in Management, 7(1), 6–22. Lin, S. W., & Bier, V. M. (2008). A study of expert overconfidence. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Expert Judgement, 93(5), 711–21.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nance, M. (2018). The plot to destroy democracy. New York: Hachette Book Group.

    Google Scholar 

  • Neslo, R. E. J., Cooke, R. M. (2011). Modeling and validating stakeholder preferences with probabilistic inversion, Appl. Stochastic Models Bus. Ind. Games and Decisions in Risk and Reliability Analysis, 27(2), 71–171, First published: 04 April 2011.

    Google Scholar 

  • Morales, O., Kurowicka, D.,& Roelen, A. (2008). Eliciting conditional and unconditional rank correlations from conditional probabilities. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 93, 600–710. Available online 12 March 2007, Volume 93, Issue 5, May 2008.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oreskes, N., & Conway, E. M. (2010). Merchants of doubt: How a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming (1st U.S. ed.). New York: Bloomsbury Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramsey, F. (1931). Truth and Probability” in Foundations of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays, London, originally written in 1926.

    Google Scholar 

  • Savage, L. J. (1954). The foundations of statistics. Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. (1975). “Reactor Safety Study.” WASH-1400, NUREG-75/014. Washington, D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ungar, L., Mellors, B., Satopää, V., Baron, J., Tetlock, P., Ramos, J., & Swift, S. (2012) The good judgment project: A large scale test of different methods of combining expert predictions. 2012 AAAI Fall Symposium Series.

    Google Scholar 

  • von Neumann, J., Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Werner, C., Bedford, T., Cooke, R. M., Hanea, A. M., & Morales-Nápoles, O. (2017). Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions. European Journal of Operational Research, 258(3), 801–819.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wisse, B., Bedford, T., & Quigley, J. (2008). Expert judgement combination using moment methods. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 93(5), 675–686.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands

    Gabriela F. Nane

  2. University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

    Anca M. Hanea

Authors
  1. Gabriela F. Nane
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Anca M. Hanea
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Gabriela F. Nane .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Center of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA), University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

    Anca M. Hanea

  2. Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands

    Gabriela F. Nane

  3. Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK

    Tim Bedford

  4. Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK

    Simon French

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2021 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Nane, G.F., Hanea, A.M. (2021). Building on Foundations: An Interview with Roger Cooke. In: Hanea, A.M., Nane, G.F., Bedford, T., French, S. (eds) Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 293. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-46474-5_11

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation