Abstract
The intelligence community has used structured analytic techniques, methods designed to reduce bias and increase transparency of process, for years. The techniques force analysts out of routine thinking and away from heuristic habits in order to increase creativity, more comprehensively evaluate the questions, and create a document trail that reveals the thinking process that led to the intelligence product. These methods can be adapted for use in criminal investigations to help reduce bias, improve accuracy, and avoid both wrongful convictions (over 2200 to date) and reparations (more than $2.2 billion) while optimizing resources. The methods shift the investigator from intuitive, daily thinking (System 1, in Kahneman’s terminology) to a more analytical approach (System 2) that creates a transparent process, regardless of the outcome. Structured analytical techniques are simple to use, inexpensive, and largely visual; they promote transparency, creativity, and group discussion, leading to better-supported results.
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Notes
- 1.
- 2.
The tendency to mistakenly perceive connections and meaning between unrelated things. A classic example of apophany is Skinner’s Box, where a hungry pigeon was put in a box and randomly given food pellets. Because the pigeon got a food pellet while performing some action, it correlated the food and the action. As the pigeon increased the number of times it performed that action, it strengthened the false correlation between the non-correlated events (the feeding was random) (Skinner 1948). In humans, one example is the Gambler’s Fallacy, where a perceived “hot streak” is in fact related to chance (Burns and Corpus 2004).
- 3.
If your answer was $0.10, that’s System 1 talking. If the bat costs $1 more than the ball, the ball has to be $0.05 ($1.05 + $0.05 = $1.10). If the ball cost $0.10, the bat and ball would cost $1.20.
- 4.
Carbon-based compounds in the juice are absorbed into the paper’s fibers. Because lemon juice ink is a weak acid, it softens the fibers in the paper. When the paper is warmed, the added heat causes some of the chemical bonds in the dried juice to break down and carbon is released. When the carbon comes into contact with air, it oxidizes, turning the juice pattern brown and, thus, visible.
- 5.
Named for the English Franciscan friar, William of Ockham (c. 1287–1347), a scholastic philosopher and theologian.
- 6.
- 7.
Brooks, L. n.d. “Brainstorm Questions, Not Solutions”, at: http://99u.com/articles/52335/brainstorm-questions-not-solutions
- 8.
The model was developed at Gordon Training International in the 1970s with different terminology than is commonly used now (gordontraining.com). The model is frequently but incorrectly attributed to Abraham Maslow . It is conceptually similar to the Johari Window (Luft and Ingham 1961) which lists knowns and unknowns for an individual in relation to others in a heuristic exercise.
- 9.
A slang military phrase for Scientific Wild-Ass Guess (Safire 2004).
- 10.
Both women are pregnant.
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Houck, M.M. (2020). Improving Criminal Investigations with Structured Analytic Techniques. In: Fox, B., Reid, J., Masys, A. (eds) Science Informed Policing. Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-41287-6_7
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