Sensitivity of the Simulated Heat Risk in Southeastern Europe to the RegCM Model Configuration—Preliminary Results

Abstract

The spatial distribution of the biometeorological conditions is a topic of many studies in different countries. One of the most important aspects of the weather adverse effect on the human beings is the consequences from too much exposure to the heat conditions. The human body can adapt to temperatures, but to some extent. If the air temperatures become too high, human beings at first feel uncomfortable, but the consequences can be a serious threat to health and even life. The main reasons for this threat are related to the lack of perspiration and cardiovascular problems. Atmospheric numerical models for simulating the heat stress is used in many studies. One of the most affected region in the near past, but also most likely in the future, is the Southeastern Europe, including Bulgaria. Global models are with too low resolution, but still they suggest very strong heat stress especially at the end of the 21th century. According to other studies, results from regional meteorological models suggest similar conclusions. The current research is about the heat stress conditions in the Balkan Peninsula, evaluated from ten–year simulations. They are performed with regional climate model RegCM. The model is run many times with different combinations of physics parameterization of some processes. The aim is to compare the heat stress simulated by different model configurations for the Balkan Peninsula and so to reveal the dependence of heat stress evaluation on the model configuration. That would answer the question of the sensitivity of the model to the parameterization schemes from a biometeorological point of view.