Forecasting Financial Results of the Enterprises’ Activities Under the Conditions of Fluctuations in Production Volumes

Abstract

In the context of the introduction of Industry 4.0 technologies, the task of increasing the efficiency of Russian enterprises in the transition to fully automated digital production controlled by intelligent systems in real-time is of particular importance. The most important direction of its solution is the optimization of financial planning for the development of enterprises, including forecasting the financial and economic results of their activities. The most important direction for its solution is the optimization of financial planning for the enterprises’ development, including the forecasting of the financial and economic results of their activities. The complexity of solving this problem is determined by the fact that the digitalization of economy implies a new level of organization of production and management of the value chain throughout the entire life cycle of products, as well as the development of automation and data exchange in constant interaction with the external environment. In recent years, the uncertainty of the external environment of enterprises has increased dramatically due to changes in the external conditions of their industrial and economic activities. The political situation in the world has changed for the worse, which has a negative impact not only on the foreign economic activity of many Russian enterprises but also on the conditions for their innovative development. The measures are taken (import substitution, state support, etc.) aimed at neutralizing and smoothing the negative consequences of these circumstances do not yet ensure the transition of Russian enterprises to a stable production increase. Many enterprises experience fluctuations in production volumes due to the sanctions, currency fluctuations, lack of financial resources in the required volumes, low profitability, and other reasons. Taking into account these circumstances, the task of forecasting the financial results of enterprises during the implementation of Industry 4.0 technologies, in the context of fluctuations in production volumes caused by the mentioned circumstances, has acquired the most important scientific and practical value. The development of a toolkit for solving this problem is given in this paper. For this purpose, a comparative analysis of applied econometric models is carried out, designed to predict the dynamics of economic processes subjected to influences that affect the volume of production. The advantages and disadvantages of trend-seasonal models are compared with other econometric models that take into account these factors. A modified algorithm for constructing trend-seasonal models is proposed, which increases their accuracy by taking into account the functionality of modern tabular processors. It allows automating complex blocks of this algorithm. The accuracy of models built on the basis of the modified algorithm is compared with models built based on the standard algorithm. Its practical feasibility is proved when introducing the Industry 4.0 technologies.