Dam-Operation Policy During Hurricane Season Using Regional Flows with Canonical Correlation Analysis

Abstract

The period of hurricanes extends along the Mexican coast from May to October and year after year causes considerable economic and human damage. An important part of risk management during a disaster of this type is the operation of dams. Many of these structures are used for water supply and electric-power generation; however, their maximum flow-control capacity is of great importance for flood-risk management.

The hydrometric data of 15 stations located within the basin of the El Caracol dam are used. Maximum precipitation data are also used in 27 stations within the basin. Note that the series used contain data for years with hurricane records. With these data, a regional frequency analysis is performed using the Gradex approach, which highlights the impact of precipitation from hurricane events.

Using a matrix of physiographic, climatological, and environmental basin characteristics, in addition to the characteristics of the reservoir and the operation of the dam, a principal component analysis EOF is performed to prioritize the variables that must be included in the operation policy of the dam. With the satellite images recorded every 15 min, the precipitation intensities of the hurricanes are calculated using the hydro-estimator technique and correlated with the flow rates measured by performing a canonical correlation analysis. The results show that downscaling between the precipitation data coming from the satellite images and the measured flow rates on the surface, it is possible to propose a policy for the supply and control operation of dams. The conclusion is that the hydro-estimator techniques together with the canonical correlation analysis are adequate procedures to propose the operation policies in dams during the hurricane season.