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Probabilities and Expectations

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Market-Consistent Prices

Abstract

In this chapter we introduce the language of probability theory on finite sample spaces. A probability measure assigns to each possible outcome of a random experiment a number that is interpreted as its “likelihood” of occurrence. We explore elementary properties of probability measures and introduce the important concepts of expectation and variance of a random variable. In the last section we also give a very brief account of the important discussions about the meaning of probability.

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References

  1. D. Gillies, Philosophical Theories of Probability (Routledge, London, 2000)

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  2. I. Hacking, The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas About Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2006)

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Koch-Medina, P., Munari, C. (2020). Probabilities and Expectations. In: Market-Consistent Prices. Birkhäuser, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39724-1_2

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