Demand Management Model Based on Quantitative Forecasting Methods and Continuous Improvement to Increase Production Planning Efficiencies of SMEs Bakeries

Abstract

In the last quarter of 2018, the manufacturing sector grew 11.4%, of which 19.6% was accounted for by the food industry. However, one of the main problems faced by micro and small companies is poor management, since many of these businesses plan based on experience. In addition, inaccurate demand forecasting generates losses for these organizations due to overproduction or understocking. While the former triggers losses from elevated operating costs, the latter leads to loss of revenue and unsatisfied customers and compromises future demand rates. Therefore, a demand management model was designed to provide accurate and relevant information, which may improve production planning based on the continuous improvement approach. The model increased the planning from 91.2% to 96.2% in a micro business dedicated to the production and sale of bread.