The Effect of Fear, Threat, and Trust Among Voters in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election: An Abstract

Abstract

The 2016 United States’ presidential election has been deemed “An Election like No Other” and could be characterized as the ultimate insider, Clinton, versus the ultimate outsider, Trump. This research, utilizing data (n = 375 likely voters) collected one week prior to the presidential election, finds that the brand image of a presidential candidate is formed through the dynamics of threat/fear and political trust. Trump tapped into a general belief that people do not trust the government, and the government is not working for them. He stated that government was broken and that he was the person who could fix it. The lack of a relationship between trust in the government and evaluation of Clinton as a candidate means that she was unable to establish a relationship between all the good government does for people and support for her candidacy. Trump avoided any negative feelings of political cynicism, which can be attributed to his “outsider” status in the minds of voters. He also understood the level of political cynicism in the country would be directed toward an experienced politician. It was found that voters’ levels of nostalgia, belief in equal rights for immigrants, free-trade resentment, and concerns over their financial future impacted their view of the political system. While voters’ trust in government and political cynicism impacted their perception of the image of the candidates, the opinion that immigration harms/benefits the country proved to be a significant and direct factor in evaluating the candidates.

The 2020 presidential election of the United States is approaching. Based on our research findings, we predict whether Trump, incumbent president, will be reelected depending on three factors. First, how much of the 2016 election issues remains intact toward the election? If still intact, they could be recycled for the incoming election. Second, how do voters view Trump? Is he a Washington insider or yet an outsider after serving one term? Surprisingly, Trump is still called a president like no other previous president. Third, have new issues appeared since Trump took the White House? Especially, the trade tensions with China and nuclear threats from North Korea have recently intensified—what is their impact on the 2020 election. Future studies need to expand this research by examining the added issues facing presidential candidates in the upcoming election.