Abstract
In a previous study, we traced the channel of infection at the Japan Coast Guard Academy as a closed space using real epidemic data. We introduced a refinement to a previous epidemic model to account for the incubation period and proposed a discrete-time epidemic model for seasonal influenza; in this manner, we obtained a reasonable incubation period and average infectivity ratio. In this study, to implement a realistic simulation, we investigate a simple method for calculating an accurate infectivity rate from real data. Therein, we consider a series of classes, including large classes attended by all students and classes for each grade, and multiplexed infection.
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Iwanaga, S., Yoshida, H., Kinjo, S. (2020). Feasibility Study on Multi-agent Simulations of a Seasonal Influenza Epidemic in a Closed Space. In: Sato, H., Iwanaga, S., Ishii, A. (eds) Proceedings of the 23rd Asia Pacific Symposium on Intelligent and Evolutionary Systems. IES 2019. Proceedings in Adaptation, Learning and Optimization, vol 12. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37442-6_19
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37442-6_19
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