Development of Landscape-Adaptive Land Use of the Upper Volga Region Based on Geostatistical Methods

Abstract

The article describes the applying of statistical methods in research in the field of agricultural geography—the science of the emergence, functioning, and development of agro-geosystems. The agro-geological systems are understood as geocomplexes, certain components of which are changed as a result of human agricultural activity. The paper shows the use of analysis of variance in determining the influence of environmental features of geocomplexes of various ranks on the yield of plants and some other production and natural parameters of farms. The characteristics of the main macro-geocomplexes (agro-ecological sections and meso-geocomplexes), genera, and types of agricultural landscapes located within the Tver region, Russia, and whose conditions are the objects of analysis. Studies have shown that crop yield variability, soil acidity, as well as the proportion of pastures in farms are less than 30% determined by the peculiarities of the natural environment of geosystems of different levels. From 30 to 50% of the content’s variability of plant nutrients in the soil, their rockiness and swampiness, as well as the proportion of hay harvests in farms depend on the natural structure of geosystem. Other elements of the structural organization of agricultural enterprises are more than half determined by the nature of the interaction of macro-, meso-, and microterritories. The influence of landscape factors on plant productivity is individual for each crop. So the main part of the variability of potato yield is explained by differences at the micro-level. Only 10–13% of the variability of the yield of perennial grasses and 11–14% of grain yield are explained by the effect of macro factors. For flax, this indicator is 17–19%. The combination of agro-climatic—neotectonic and granulometric properties of agro-geosystems determines about 8% of the yield variability of annual grasses. Consequently, the process of determining the set of crops for the development of farming systems should be based on knowledge of the variability of their yields, primarily within the types and kinds of agricultural landscapes, and, if possible, at lower taxonomic levels. Indicators such as the degree of development of agricultural landscapes and the average size of the contour of farming land can be very confidently determined when analyzing the conditions of the macroenvironment. However, in this case, it is necessary to take into account local peculiarities which may lead to significant adjustments in each individual farm. The use of track analysis allows it to identify the factors of direct impact on the production process of crops. The comparison of its results with the data of correlation analysis allows it to highlight the “active” factors, the effect of which is described by reliable travel and correlation coefficients, and the “potential” factors whose direct influence is obscured by many reasons. The analysis showed that all the studied types of agricultural landscapes of the upper Volga region can be divided into two groups according to the number of active and potential factors, i.e., in geocomplexes with a relatively homogeneous lithogenic basis and in landscapes on two-layered sediments. The latter are distinguished by a large number of active factors and, commonly, by a wider range, exposed to their effects by crops. This allows us to conclude that the design of crop rotations in the above described groups of landscapes should take into account an individual set of factors which are actively or potentially influencing the production process. The paper shows that the methodology for assessing the productivity of agricultural landscapes can be based on the use of its integral indicators. In conjunction with geographic information systems and mathematical modeling techniques, they allow to reveal areas for measures to optimize the melioration status of geocomplexes. The paper identifies systems of environmental management and land melioration measures aimed to increase the degree of the potential productivity of agricultural landscapes for legume-grass stands. All systems can be combined into three groups: (1) adaptive placement of grasslands depending on the granulometry and geological structure of the soil; (2) adaptive placement of grassland with drainage/irrigation amelioration; and (3) adaptive placement of grassland with water amelioration and land management activities (integration of a certain number of fields for hay harvest into the crop rotation). Areas of these groups of activities were identified at the periphery of the upper Volga region.