Abstract
The possibility of adapting agricultural ecosystems and modelling their condition under changing economic conditions is determined by agricultural status indicators under current conditions compared to retrospective indicators characterizing the socio-economic and ecological status of rural areas and the agricultural ecosystem as a whole. The analysis of their development involves a systematic approach, the first phase of which is the development of a verbal model taking into account statistical data on the economic, social and environmental situation of agricultural areas. For this purpose, three districts of the Republic of Crimea (Krasnogvardeysky, Dzhankoysky and Saksky) were selected as pilot regions. The indicators were calculated to identify strong and weak development trends and the ability to adapt the regions to the conditions of changes in economic activity. It can be seen that at this stage the Krasnogvardeysky region occupies the best position (integral coefficient: 0.3), where the economic and social coefficients are highest; the position of the Dzhankoysky and Saksky regions is approximately the same (integral coefficients: 0.19 and 0.18, respectively). The development of a methodology for ecosystem modelling initially involves the assessment of individual elements. First simulations of winter crops were carried out, thereafter an agro-ecological evaluation of soils based on soil parameter modelling. Further development steps of the methodology are (1) the analysis of the status of all regions of the Republic of Crimea (RC) and (2) the identification of optimization and sustainability regions using logical-mathematical models and fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM). In particular, they will address the questions of how rational solutions can be found for their development and how emerging problems can be eliminated.
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The reported study was funded by RFBR according to the research projects #19-016-00148-a; #19-04-00939-a).
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Dunaeva, I., Popovich, V.V., Pashtetsky, V.S., Terleev, V.V., Nikonorov, A.O. (2020). Application of Ecosystem Modelling Methodology on Rural Areas of Crimea—Systematic Approach. In: Mirschel, W., Terleev, V., Wenkel, KO. (eds) Landscape Modelling and Decision Support. Innovations in Landscape Research. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37421-1_3
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