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Polish–US Relations in the Trump Era: From Worries to Honeymoon?

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Abstract

Poland is often labeled as the most Atlanticist country in Central Europe. This Atlanticism appears to have resulted in a systematic alignment with US positions at the expense of European solidarity and a preference for American military hardware. However, a more detailed analysis demonstrates that there was no equivalence between post-communism and Atlanticism and that there has been an ebb and flow in Polish Atlanticism. When Poland participated in the US invasion of Iraq, the relation between Warsaw and Washington reached a climax, then Poland became more determined to participate in the development of EU security and defense policies and to diversify its strategic partners. However, when it comes to territorial security, the United States still remains its most important ally.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, PiS) is a national-conservative political party, which rules Poland since 2015. Following the October 2019 elections, it has 235 seats in the Sejm (lower chamber) and 48 in the Senate (in 2015, the PiS had 235 seats in the Sejm and 61 in the Senat). State Electoral Commission (PKW). “Official results of the 2019 elections,” https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2019/pl/wyniki/sejm/pl and https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2019/pl/wyniki/senat/pl. “Official results of the 2015 elections,” https://parlament2015.pkw.gov.pl/349_Wyniki_Sejm.html and https://parlament2015.pkw.gov.pl/351_Wyniki_Senat.html.

    The party was founded in 2001 by the Kaczyński twins, Lech and Jarosław, as a Christian democratic party. In 2005, it won the parliamentary election while Lech Kaczyński won the presidency (he died in the Smolensk plane crash in 2010). Law and Justice formed coalition with far-right League of the Polish Families (LPR) and populist Self-defense of the Republic of Poland (Samoobrona). Jarosław Kaczyński served as Prime Minister, before calling elections in 2007 because of the collapse of the coalition. The party came in second to liberal Civic Platform (PO) and sat in the opposition until 2015, when it has won the parliamentary and presidential elections. The party platform is dominated by a social conservative agenda, values the influence of Catholicism in public square and favors economic interventionism. The party is mildly Euroskeptic, shares similar political tactics with Hungary’s Fidesz but with anti-Russian stances. The PiS MEPs sit in the European Conservatives and Reformists group in the European Parliament.

  2. 2.

    Interview with Jerzy Kozminski, Polish ambassador to the United States (1994–1998), January 2012, Warsaw.

  3. 3.

    On this period, see Kerry Longhurst and Marcin Zaborowski, The New Atlanticist: Poland’s Foreign and Security Policy Priorities (Londres: Chatham House, 2007); Andrzej Krzeczunowicz, Krok po kroku Polska Droga do NATO (Krakow: Znak, 1999); Roman Kuźniar, Poland’s Foreign Policy After 1989 (Warsaw: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar, 2009); and Amélie Zima, “La construction politique de l’atlantisme en Europe centrale,” Études internationales 49, no. 2 (Spring 2018): 391–418.

  4. 4.

    Interview with Janusz Onyszkiewicz, Polish Defense minister (1990–1993 and 1997–2000), November 2011, Warsaw.

  5. 5.

    Polska a bezpieczeństwo europejskie,” speech of Polish Foreign Affairs Minister Krzysztof Skubiszewski, North Atlantic Assembly, November 1990, London, in Janusz Stefanowicz, Polska-NATO, wybór dokumentów, 19901997 (Warsaw: ISP-PAN, 1997).

  6. 6.

    Interview with Andrzej Olechowski, Polish Foreign Affairs Minister (1993–1995), October 2011, Warsaw.

  7. 7.

    The European Union has been established by the Maastricht treaty that came in force in 1993. It is the polling of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC, established by the 1951 treaty of Paris), the European Economic Community (EEC, established by the 1957 Rome Treaty), and Euratom (European Atomic Energy Community created in 1957). From six members, the EU has grown to 28 members and its current legal basis is the Treaty of Lisbon that came in force in 2009. Its main institutions are the Commission, the European Parliament, the Central European Bank, and the European Court of Justice.

  8. 8.

    The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is a security-oriented intergovernmental organization. Its mandate includes issues such as crisis management, post-conflict rehabilitation, arms control, promotion of human rights, freedom of the press, and fair elections. Its 57 members are European, Central Asian, and North American States. It has its roots in the 1975 Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE) held in Helsinki, Finland, which was an East–West forum during the Cold War. The fall of the USSR brought about changes in CSCE that eventually has become the OSCE in 1994.

  9. 9.

    Amélie Zima, D’ennemi à allié. L’adhésion de la Hongrie, de la Pologne et de la République tchèque à l’OTAN (19891999) (Bruxelles: Peter Lang, 2019), 73–91.

  10. 10.

    The eight countries were the following: Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, and Spain.

  11. 11.

    CBOS, “Polacy o roli Stanów Zjednoczonych w świecie,” November 2004, https://www.cbos.pl/SPISKOM.POL/2004/K_178_04.PDF.

  12. 12.

    CBOS monthly opinion pools made between January and December 2004 showed that the Polish opposition to the sending of Polish soldiers in Iraq was between 60 et 74%. See CBOS, “Stosunek do obecności polskich żołnierzy w Iraku,” December 2004, https://www.cbos.pl/SPISKOM.POL/2004/K_194_04.PDF.

  13. 13.

    The PO liberal government (2007–2015) initiated a modernization plan of 91 billion zloty (approximatively 23 billion US dollars) for 2014–2022. The PiS government has found this plan unrealistic and forecasted it downwards: 72 billion zloty (18 billion US dollars) for 2017–2022.

  14. 14.

    Interview with Jerzy Maria Nowak, Polish representative at OSCE, at the International Atomic Agency and at the European representation at the UN (1991–1997), general director for security policy at the Polish Minister for Foreign Affairs, member of the team in charge of the negotiations with NATO, December 2011, Warsaw.

  15. 15.

    Since EU adhesion in 2004, the Polish support has always been massive: around 70% in the 2000s and above 80% since 2014. See CBOS, “Jakiej Unii chcą Polacy?” April 2017, https://www.cbos.pl/SPISKOM.POL/2017/K_050_17.PDF.

  16. 16.

    Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska, PO) is a liberal-conservative political party. The party was formed in 2001. In the 2001 general election, PO emerged as the largest opposition party, behind the ruling centre-left Democratic Left Alliance (SLD). PO remained the second-largest party at the 2005 general election behind the national-conservative party PiS. After the collapse of the coalition led by PiS in 2007, Civic Platform won the general election and formed a government with the agrarian Polish People’s party (PSL). Following the Smolensk plane crash, Bronislaw Komorowski became the first President from PO in the 2010 presidential election. Tusk was then reelected as Prime Minister in the 2011 general election but stepped down in 2014 to assume the post of President of the European Council. Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz led the party in the 2015 general election but PO was defeated by the PiS party and President Komorowski failed in running for reelection. Since 2015, PO is the second-largest party in Poland. Following the October 2019 elections, it has 134 seats in the Sejm (lower chamber) and 43 in the Senate (in 2015, the PO had 138 seats in the Sejm and 34 in the Senat). State Electoral Commission (PKW). “Official results of the 2019 elections,” https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2019/pl/wyniki/sejm/pl and https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2019/pl/wyniki/senat/pl. “Official results of the 2015 elections,” https://parlament2015.pkw.gov.pl/349_Wyniki_Sejm.html and https://parlament2015.pkw.gov.pl/351_Wyniki_Senat.html. Since its creation, the party has shown stronger electoral performances in Warsaw and all the biggest Polish cities as well as in the west and the north of Poland.

  17. 17.

    One of the key opponents to the consolidation of CSDP during the Polish presidency was the UK.

  18. 18.

    “Rozmowa Sikorski-Rostowski. ‘Można za*ć PiS komisją specjalną ws Macierewicza’,” Wprost, June 22, 2014, https://www.wprost.pl/453226/rozmowa-sikorski-rostowski-mozna-zac-pis-komisja-specjalna-ws-macierewicza.html.

  19. 19.

    NATO, “NATO Welcomes Its 24th Centre of Excellence,” September 30, 2015, https://www.act.nato.int/nato-welcomes-its-24th-centre-of-excellence.

  20. 20.

    The White House, “Remarks by President Obama and President Duda of Poland After Bilateral Meeting,” July 8, 2016, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/07/08/remarks-president-obama-and-president-duda-poland-after-bilateral.

  21. 21.

    Witold Waszczykowski, “W Rosji otwierają się szampany? Szef MSZ: przestrzegałbym władców Kremla,” Interview by Bogdan Rymanowski, TVN24, November 9, 2016, https://www.tvn24.pl/wybory-w-usa-witold-waszczykowski-o-konsekwencjach-dla-polski,690507,s.html.

  22. 22.

    Radoslaw Sikorski, “NATO przejrzało na oczy,” Interview by Jędrzej Bielecki, Rzeczpospolita, July 7, 2016, https://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1313362-NATO-przejrzalo-na-oczy.html.

  23. 23.

    Andrzej Duda, ‘President Duda’s Letter to His Excellency Donald Trump’, November 9, 2016, Official Website of the Polish Presidency, President.PL, November 9, 2016, https://www.president.pl/en/news/art,293,president-dudas-letter-to-his-excellency-donald-trump.html.

  24. 24.

    PESCO highlighted a tension within the PiS government. Defense Minister Macierewicz, in function from 2015 to 2017 and one of the strongest proponents of the US orientation, did not want to ratify it contrary to Prime minister Morawiecki.

  25. 25.

    Antoni Macierewicz’s activities and networks have been investigated by Tomasz Piatek, a journalist for the liberal daily Gazeta Wyborcza. See Thomasz Piatek, Macierewicz i jego tajemnice (Warsaw: Arbitror, ​​2017). It shows, among other things, the troubled ties of the former Minister with a former US senator who became a lobbyist for Lockheed-Martin and with individuals linked to the mafias and Russian military intelligence services. It earned its author the 2017 award from Reporters Without Borders.

  26. 26.

    The BBN is the National Security Office.

  27. 27.

    Justyna Koć, “Gen. Mirosław Różański: W miarę jedzenia apetyt maleje,” Wiadomo.co, June 15, 2019, https://wiadomo.co/gen-miroslaw-rozanski-w-miare-jedzenia-apetyt-maleje/.

    General Mirosław Różański, commander-in-chief of the armed forces (DG RSZ), is one of the 40 generals who had resigned since PiS won the elections. The reasons for these resignations, which have been accompanied by numerous dismissals, can be explained by the disagreement with the political line adopted by the PiS concerning the modernization of the armed forces and the creation of the Territorial Guard. This poses a problem of oversight and weakening of the armed forces as those officers had been trained in the academies of NATO countries, had a knowledge on the functioning of NATO and field-experience, mainly in Iraq and Afghanistan.

  28. 28.

    The White House, “Statement from the Press Secretary Regarding the Nomination of Poland for Entry into the Visa Waiver Program,” last modified October 4, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-press-secretary-regarding-nomination-poland-entry-visa-waiver-program/.

    In 2017, the European Parliament asked the European Commission to restore visa obligations for US citizens as Washington refuses to grant access to the territory to nationals of five European countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Poland, and Romania).

  29. 29.

    The proposal of President Duda to name the compound “Trump” was criticized by the political opposition. Barbara Zdrojewska, a PO senator, said on Twitter: “President Duda decided to take advantage of Trump’s vanity and came out with this Fort Trump. Had he done it in a private conversation, jokingly, it would have been a crafty move, but blurting it out during a news conference in front of half of the world was pathetic. He humiliated himself, us and Trump,” Barbara Zdrojewska (@BZdrojewska), September 18, 2018, https://twitter.com/BZdrojewska/status/1042154794830454786. Tomasz Siemoniak, former PO Defense Minister, also criticizes this proposition: “What an embarrassment in front of the entire world! Even leaders of banana republics had more respect for themselves and their countries than President Duda does,” Tomasz Siemoniak (@TomaszSiemoniak), September 18, 2018, https://twitter.com/TomaszSiemoniak/status/1042151789179674624. Our translation for both tweets.

  30. 30.

    “Prezydent Duda w USA marzy o ‘Fort Trump’,” Gazeta Wyborcza, September 18, 2018, http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23938280,prezydent-duda-w-usa-marzy-o-ford-trump.html?disableRedirects=true.

  31. 31.

    “Fort Trump odjeżdża. Amerykanie nie zbudują stałej bazy w Polsce,” Gazeta Wyborcza, March 14, 2019, http://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,24546215,fort-trump-odjezdza-amerykanie-nie-zbuduja-stalej-bazy-w-polsce.html.

  32. 32.

    There are already 4500 US soldiers in Poland in the framework of NATO EFP (nonpermanent presence).

  33. 33.

    Juliusz Sabak, “Deklaracja Duda-Trump. Kluczowe wnioski,” Defence 24, June 13, 2019, https://www.defence24.pl/deklaracja-duda-trump-kluczowe-wnioski-analiza.

  34. 34.

    Paweł Wroński, “Trump: będzie 2 tys. więcej żołnierzy USA w Polsce,” Gazeta Wyborcza, June 12, 2019, http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24893819,trump-bedzie-2-tys-wiecej-zolnierzy-usa-w-polsce.html.

  35. 35.

    Justyna Koć, “Gen. Stanisław Koziej o spotkaniu Duda-Trump: Nic wielkiego się nie dzieje,” Wiadomo.co, June 12, 2019, https://wiadomo.co/gen-stanislaw-koziej-o-spotkaniu-duda-trump-nic-wielkiego-sie-nie-dzieje/.

  36. 36.

    On Polish domestic situation, see Georges Mink, “L’Europe centrale à l’épreuve de l’autoritarisme,” Politique étrangère (Summer 2016): 89–101; Maciej Gdula, Nowy Autorytaryzm (Warsaw: Wydawnictwo Krytyki Politycznej, 2018).

  37. 37.

    IPN laws of January 26 and June 27, 2018. See Institut Pamieci Narodowej. Ustawa, O IPN, https://ipn.gov.pl/pl/o-ipn/ustawa/24216,Ustawa.html. On IPN creation and functioning, see Georges Mink, “Is There a New Institutional Response to the Crimes of Communism? National Memory Agencies in Post-Communist Countries: The Polish Case (1998–2014), with References to East Germany,” Nationalities Papers 45, no. 6 (2017): 1013–1027.

  38. 38.

    AJC (@AJCGlobal), January 27, 2018, https://twitter.com/ajcglobal/status/957319879421460480.

  39. 39.

    US Congress, Senate. Justice for Uncompensated Survivors Today (JUST), Act of 2017, S.447, 115th Cong., 1st sess., introduced in Senate February 2, 2017, https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/447.

  40. 40.

    Jewish property was confiscated by the Nazi Germans, then taken over by the Communist State and by Poles, who often came from territories taken over by the USSR and acquired property rights through a long and uninterrupted occupation. Synagogues have been returned to Jewish communities. But private property can only be claimed by their owners or their heirs. Such goods may have been occupied, sold, and resold legally. Thus, land may still be claimed by heirs of former owners, but postwar buildings belong to other owners.

  41. 41.

    “Deklaracja warszawska dotycząca ponownego zjednoczenia Europy,” June 1, 2019, https://www.premier.gov.pl/files/files/deklaracja_warszawska_dotyczaca_ponownego_zjednoczenia_europy_-_nasza_unia_nasza_przyszlosc.pdf.

  42. 42.

    Ibid.

  43. 43.

    According to a British official based in Poland, there is a long way to go for the British–Polish DCA to have the same dimension as Lancaster House, interview made in February 2019.

  44. 44.

    See HM Government, “National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review 2015: A Secure and Prosperous United Kingdom,” 2015, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/555607/2015_Strategic_Defence_and_Security_Review.pdf; Ministerstwo Obrony Narodowej, “Koncepcja Obronna Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej,” May 2017, https://www.gov.pl/attachment/78e14510-253a-4b48-bc31-fd11db898ab7.

  45. 45.

    Interview with a British official based in Poland, February 2019, Warsaw.

  46. 46.

    Zbigniew Lentowicz, “Brytysjkie rakiety przeciwlotnicze kuszą Warszawę,” Rzcezpospolita, January 23, 2019, https://www.rp.pl/Przemysl-Obronny/310049941-Brytyjskie-rakiety-przeciwlotnicze-kusza-Warszawe.html.

  47. 47.

    Interview with Tomasz Siemoniak, PO Defense Minister (2011–2015), February 2019, Warsaw.

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Acknowledgement

The author would like to thank Dr. Marek Madej (University of Warsaw) for his comments and suggestions on an earlier version of the text. This chapter is mainly based on fieldworks made in Warsaw and on semi-structured interviews with key diplomatic actors.

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Zima, A. (2020). Polish–US Relations in the Trump Era: From Worries to Honeymoon?. In: Quessard, M., Heurtebize, F., Gagnon, F. (eds) Alliances and Power Politics in the Trump Era. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37258-3_4

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