Islamic Extremism and the Crystallization of Norms: AnAgent-Based Model of Prison Radicalization

Abstract

Prisons in the United States are often considered incubators for the exchange of radical ideas. Global terrorism and the rise of homegrown Islamic radicalization has exacerbated these concerns and has been the subject of congressional hearings to prevent Qutbism from infiltrating the U.S. prison system. Qutbism, the foundation of radical Islamic extremism, espouses violence against non-Muslim communities, particularly the United States. One option that has been proposed to mitigate prison radicalization revolves around an effective housing strategy. Current discussions on this topic consider either integrating radical inmates with the regular population or keeping them separate in a segregated housing unit. To determine the efficacy of each housing strategy, we have constructed an agent-based model that uses norm crystallization to simulate prison radicalization. In the model, we vary the density of the inmate population, the mobility of radical inmates, and the initial population of radical inmates. With these three variables we compare baseline, integration and segregation models to determine the attractiveness of Qutbism among prison inmates, the number of converts for both radical Islam and some other form of extremism, and the time it takes to crystallize norms. The results provide valuable insights in determining an effective housing strategy. While the absence of Islamic radicals does not outright prevent prison radicalization, a housing strategy of segregation both reduce their influence over the inmate population and increases the time it takes to disseminate Qutbism. The implications of this research are important to understanding prison radicalization which has been neglected as a method of inquiry into terrorism studies. A greater emphasis has been placed on explanations of radicalization, and the detection of Islamic terrorists. However, the apprehension of radical Islamic terrorists within the United States places them near other criminal offenders. Determining the most effective housing strategy is important to mitigate the spread of Qutbism in U.S. prisons and reduce the potential risks to public safety.