Fuzzy Multiple Methods of Diagnosis and Credit Risk of Bankruptcy of the Agricultural Enterprises of the Region on the Basis of Score and MDA-Models

Abstract

The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for comprehensive assessment of the creditworthiness and risk of bankruptcy of industry enterprises in the region based on fuzzy-multiple aggregation of estimates obtained through the use of a combination of classical MDA and scoring models. The technique is based on the use of fuzzy three-level classifiers and allows the aggregation of estimates for a group of models and a set of enterprises in the industry. Initially, bankruptcy risk estimates are calculated for a set of regional enterprises based on classical models (for example, Altman, Taffler, Seyfullin-Kadikov). Then they are aggregated across the aggregate of enterprises, with the result that we get an aggregated assessment of the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises in the industry according to each of the methods. Finally, the obtained aggregate estimates are used to form a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises in the industry in the region. The novelty of the proposed methodology consists in the possibility of combining the conclusions obtained on the basis of various non-standardized methods using different evaluation criteria. In addition, the method allows to take into account in the model weights, reflecting the importance of enterprises in the final assessment and the reliability of the models for the studied group of enterprises.