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Conclusions: A Sino-American Grand Bargain to Settle the Disputes?

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Order, Contestation and Ontological Security-Seeking in the South China Sea

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Abstract

This chapter asserts that the main obstacle to striking a grand bargain between China and the US over their competing order-building projects is the ontological insecurity each of them is facing. Built on a socially constructed discourse and narrative that the territories were a historically undisputable part of China until France and Japan invaded them, territorial irredentism is essential for contemporary China to validate its national identity as a re-emerging East Asian power. The US believes that its national identity as a liberal hegemon is threatened by a revisionist, non-liberal China. To preserve the rules-based liberal order is crucial for it to keep its national identity intact. To make its order-building legitimate, China must act and speak in accordance with publicly accepted norms and rules. This would require China to be committed to contemporary international norms and rules rather than to the vaguely defined historic rights and the unsubstantiated nine-dash-line map.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Ikenberry, After Victory, 52–53.

  2. 2.

    Ikenberry, After Victory, chapters 1–3.

  3. 3.

    Cordner, “The Spratly Islands Dispute and the Law of the Sea,” 68.

  4. 4.

    Zhu Feng, “Chinese Perspectives on the US Role in Southeast Asia,” Southeast Asian Affairs 2013, ed. Daljit Singh (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2013), 51–60.

  5. 5.

    Charles L. Glaser, “A U.S.-China Grand Bargain? The Hard Choice between Military Competition and Accommodation,” International Security 39, no. 4 (2015): 49–90; Michael Mastanduno, “Order and Change in World Politics: The Financial Crisis and the Breakdown of the US-China Grand Bargain,” in Power, Order, and Change in World Politics, ed. G. John Ikenberry (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014), 162–191.

  6. 6.

    Glaser, “A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?” 49–50. Quotation at p. 49.

  7. 7.

    Glaser, “A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?” 79.

  8. 8.

    Glaser, “A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?” 50.

  9. 9.

    Glaser, “A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?” 51.

  10. 10.

    For a similar argument, see Neal G. Jesse et al., “The Leader Can’t Lead When the Followers Won’t Follow: The Limitations of Hegemony,” in Beyond Great Powers and Hegemons: Why Secondary States Support, Follow, or Challenge, eds. Kristen P. Williams, Steven E. Lobell and Neal G. Jesse (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2012), 1–30.

  11. 11.

    Mastanduno, “Order and Change in World Politics,” 165–166.

  12. 12.

    Mastanduno, “Order and Change in World Politics,” 163.

  13. 13.

    Mastanduno, “Order and Change in World Politics,” 175–189. Quotation at p. 181.

  14. 14.

    Goh, The Struggle for Order.

  15. 15.

    As a neorealist, Glaser is primarily focused on the physical security aspect of China’s interests and policy, and consequently argues that it is another issue if China pursues ‘nonsecurity motives’ in attaining regional hegemony. Glaser, “A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?” 64. In contrast, Mastanduno discusses US changing perceptions of China’s rise, based on a belief that the US has been a ‘resident power’ in East Asia and the self-appointed regional stabiliser. Mastanduno, “Order and Change in World Politics,” 185–187.

  16. 16.

    Douglas Stuart, “San Francisco 2.0: Military Aspects of the U.S. Pivot toward Asia,” Asian Affairs: An American Review 39, no. 4 (2012): 202–218 at 206.

  17. 17.

    The key Chinese laws were promulgated in the 1990s: the ‘Law on the Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone’ of February 1992 and the ‘Law on the Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf’ of June 1998.

  18. 18.

    Beckman, “The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea,” 163; Chang, “China’s Claim of Sovereignty over Spratly and Paracel Islands,” 408–409; Dzurek, “The Spratly Islands Dispute,” 48.

  19. 19.

    “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Jiang Yu’s Regular Press Conference on September 15, 2011,” Consulate-General of the PRC in Vancouver, September 16, 2011, http://vancouver.china-consulate.org/eng/fyrth/t860126.htm (accessed September 24, 2017).

  20. 20.

    Barry Posen, “Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of US Hegemony,” International Security 28, no. 1 (2003): 5–46. According to Mastanduno, ‘[t]he dollar and the navy were the lynchpins of US hegemony’. Mastanduno, “Order and Change in World Politics,” 167.

  21. 21.

    Gao and Jia, “The Nine-Dash Line in the South China Sea,” 114.

  22. 22.

    Gao and Jia, “The Nine-Dash Line in the South China Sea,” 108, 112–113, 116.

  23. 23.

    Gao and Jia, “The Nine-Dash Line in the South China Sea,” 121, 123.

  24. 24.

    Gao and Jia, “The Nine-Dash Line in the South China Sea,” 119.

  25. 25.

    Fu and Wu, How Have We Come to This Stage in the South China Sea, 76.

  26. 26.

    Mingjiang Li, “The People’s Liberation Army and China’s Smart Power Quandary in Southeast Asia,” Journal of Strategic Studies 38, no. 3 (2015): 359–382 at 367–378.

  27. 27.

    Daniel Deudney, “Ground Identity: Nature, Place, and Space in Nationalism,” in The Return of Culture and Identity in IR Theory, eds. Yosef Lapid and Friedrich Kratochwil (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1996), 129–145 at 130, 131–133.

  28. 28.

    Chris Buckley, “China Shows off Military Might as Xi Jinping Tries to Cement Power,” New York Times, July 30, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/30/world/asia/china-military-parade-xi-jinping.html (accessed August 14, 2017). See also: Miles Maochun Yu, “Understanding China’s Strategic Culture through Its South China Sea Gambit,” Hoover Institution, May 9, 2016, http://www.hoover.org/research/understanding-chinas-strategic-culture-through-its-south-china-sea-gambit (accessed August 25, 2017).

  29. 29.

    Robert S. Ross, “China’s Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, and the U.S. Response,” International Security 34, no. 2 (2009): 46–81.

  30. 30.

    See Chap. 6 above. Nirupama Rao, former Indian foreign secretary, attributed it to the Chinese attempts to change the status quo of the disputed territory gradually. Nirupama Menon Rao and Justin Seledyn, The Face-Off in Doklam: Interpreting India-China Relations. Asia Report no. 37 (Sigur Center for Asian Studies, George Washington University, 2017 ), 4, https://www2.gwu.edu/~sigur/assets/Docs/publications/asiareports/AsiaReport-37-v6.pdf (accessed February 5, 2018).

  31. 31.

    Zhou, “Between Assertiveness and Self-Restraint,” 869.

  32. 32.

    Glaser, “A US-China Grand Bargain?” 66.

  33. 33.

    Glaser, “A US-China Grand Bargain?” 67.

  34. 34.

    See, e.g. Li Xiaokun and Zhang Ting, “Foreign Minister Warns of South China Sea Issue,” China Daily, July 26, 2010, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-07/26/content_11046544.htm (accessed November 26, 2017).

  35. 35.

    Zhou, “Between Assertiveness and Self-Restraint,” 877.

  36. 36.

    See, for instance, Graham Allison, “What Xi Jinping Wants,” The Atlantic, May 31, 2017, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/05/what-china-wants/528561/ (accessed November 26, 2017); Stephen Biddle and Ivan Oelrich, “Future Warfare in the Western Pacific,” International Security 41, No. 1 (2016): 7–48.

  37. 37.

    Glaser, “A US-China Grand Bargain?” 64.

  38. 38.

    Ernest Z. Bower and Gregory B. Poling, “Advancing the National Interests of the United States: Ratification of the Law of the Sea,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 25, 2012, https://www.csis.org/analysis/advancing-national-interests-united-states-ratification-law-sea (accessed September 13, 2017).

  39. 39.

    Bower and Poling, “Advancing the National Interests of the United States.”

  40. 40.

    Robert A. Manning and James Przystup, “Stop the South China Sea Charade,” Foreign Policy, August 17, 2017, http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/17/stop-the-south-china-sea-charade/ (accessed September 14, 2017).

  41. 41.

    Homeland Security Digital Library, “China-U.S. Joint Statement,” November 17, 2009, https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=31925 (accessed February 2, 2018).

  42. 42.

    Han Xudong, an army colonel and a professor at National Defense University, wrote in the Liaowang (Outlook), a CCP magazine, that “China’s comprehensive national strength, especially in military capabilities, is not yet enough to safeguard all of the core national interests. In this case, it’s not a good idea to reveal the core national interests.” Edward Wong, “China Hedges Over Whether South China Sea Is a ‘Core Interest’ Worth War,” New York Times, March 30, 2011, https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/31/world/asia/31beijing.html (accessed April 6, 2019).

  43. 43.

    John Pomfret, “Beijing Claims ‘Indisputable Sovereignty’ over the South China Sea,” Washington Post, July 31, 2010, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/30/AR2010073005664.html (accessed November 26, 2017); Edward Wong, “Security Law Suggests a Broadening of China’s ‘Core Interests’,” New York Times, July 2, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/03/world/asia/security-law-suggests-a-broadening-of-chinas-core-interests.html (accessed November 26, 2017).

  44. 44.

    Cited in John Pomfret, “Clinton Wades into South China Sea Territorial Dispute,” Washington Post, July 23, 2010, http://voices.washingtonpost.com/checkpoint-washington/2010/07/clinton_wades_into_south_china.html (accessed November 26, 2017). See also Mark Landler, “Offering to Aid Talks, U.S. Challenges China on Disputed Islands,” New York Times, July 23, 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/24/world/asia/24diplo.html (accessed November 26, 2017); Greg Sheridan, “China Actions Meant as Test, Hillary Clinton Says,” The Australian, November 9, 2010, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/china-actions-meant-as-test-hillary-clinton-says/news-story/bbce0c20fb6caa5071c56de35c567c9d (accessed November 26, 2017); Wong, “China Hedges over Whether South China Sea Is a ‘Core Interest’ Worth War”.

  45. 45.

    Mitzen and Larson, “Ontological Security and Foreign Policy,” 16.

  46. 46.

    Steele, Ontological Security in International Relations; Jelena Subotić, “Narrative, Ontological Security, and Foreign Policy Change,” Foreign Policy Analysis 12, no. 4 (2016): 610–627.

  47. 47.

    Gustafsson, “Routinised Recognition and Anxiety,” 619; Mitzen, “Ontological Security in World Politics.”

  48. 48.

    Bahar Rumelili, “Identity and Desecuritisation: The Pitfalls of Conflating Ontological and Physical Security,” Journal of International Relations and Development 18, no. 1 (2013): 52–74.

  49. 49.

    Mitzen and Larson, “Ontological Security and Foreign Policy,” 14.

  50. 50.

    Mitzen, “Ontological Security in World Politics,” 359.

  51. 51.

    The trap is that ‘it was the rise of Athens [read China] and the fear that this instilled in Sparta [read the US] that made the war inevitable’. Graham Allison, “The Thucydides Trap,” Foreign Policy, June 9, 2017, http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/09/the-thucydides-trap/ (accessed December 24, 2017). His ideas are fully developed in his Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? (Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017).

  52. 52.

    Patrick, “World Order: What, Exactly, Are the Rules?” 8.

  53. 53.

    Glaser, “A U.S.-China Grand Bargain?” 80.

  54. 54.

    Manning and Przystup, “Stop the South China Sea Charade”.

  55. 55.

    Gordon Lubold and Jeremy Page, “US to Challenge China with More Patrols in Disputed Waters,” Wall Street Journal, September 1, 2017. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-readies-plan-to-increase-patrols-in-south-china-sea-1504299067 (accessed September 14, 2017).

  56. 56.

    Manning and Przystup, “Stop the South China Sea Charade”.

  57. 57.

    Goddard, When Right Makes Might, 12–13.

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Heritage, A., Lee, P.K. (2020). Conclusions: A Sino-American Grand Bargain to Settle the Disputes?. In: Order, Contestation and Ontological Security-Seeking in the South China Sea. Governance, Security and Development. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-34807-6_7

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