Advertisement

Population Distribution in the Pacific Islands, Proximity to Coastal Areas, and Risks

Chapter
First Online:
  • 670 Downloads
Part of the Springer Climate book series (SPCL)

Abstract

Pacific island countries (PICs) are highly susceptible to sea-level rise and extreme events due to their size, location, and isolated nature. Populations in PICs are generally concentrated along the coast due to transportation ease, reliance on tourism for income, and livelihoods tied to marine resources. A majority of PICs are low-lying islands and with populations distributed mainly along the coastal regions leaves them more vulnerable to climatic impacts. A detailed analysis of the exposure of populations of 12 PICs to climate change-related hazards revealed that approximately 54% of the population lives within 500 m of the coastline. In particular, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu are identified to be extremely vulnerable. They have the highest proportion of population living within close proximity of the coast, with 68.8%, 74.3%, and 64.9% of the population living within 200 m of the coast for Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu, respectively. The implications of these results emphasise the importance of prioritising the populations of the small islands of the Pacific for future adaptation to coastal hazards.

Keywords

Climate change Pacific Coastal hazards Population distribution Sea-level rise Climate impacts 
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

References

  1. Air Worldwide (2011) Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) Component 2: Exposure Data Collection and Management. In: Bank TW (ed) Belgium: Technical Report Submitted to the World BankGoogle Scholar
  2. Albert S, Grinham A, Gibbes B, Leon J, Church J (2016) Sea-level rise has claimed five whole islands in the Pacific: first scientific evidence. Environ Res Lett 11(5):1–9.  https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054011/pdfCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Barnett J (2001) Adapting to climate change in Pacific Island countries: the problem of uncertainty. World Dev 29(6):977–993. https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/34507CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Barnett J (2011) Dangerous climate change in the Pacific Islands: food production and food security. Reg Environ Chang 11(1):229–237.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0160-2CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Barnett J, Adger WN (2003) Climate dangers and atoll countries. Clim Chang 61(3):321–337CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Barragán JM, de Andrés M (2015) Analysis and trends of the world’s coastal cities and agglomerations. Ocean Coast Manage 114:11–20.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.06.004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Birk T (2012) Relocation of reef and atoll island communities as an adaptation to climate change: learning from experience in Solomon Islands. In: Climate Change and Human Mobility: Global Challenges to the Social Sciences. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 81–109CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Campbell J, Barnett J (2010) Climate change and small island states: power, knowledge and the South Pacific. Routledge, LondonCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Caramel L (2014) Besieged by the rising tides of climate change. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/01/kiribati-climate-change-fiji-vanua-levu
  10. DESA (2015) World population prospects: The 2015 revision, key findings and advance tables. United Nations, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  11. Duvat V, Magnan A, Pouget F (2013) Exposure of atoll population to coastal erosion and flooding: a South Tarawa assessment, Kiribati. Sustain Sci 8(3):423–440.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-013-0215-7CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Factsheet (2017) People and Oceans. Paper presented at The Ocean Conference, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  13. Haberkorn G (2008) Pacific Islands’ population and development: Facts fictions and follies. NZ Popul Rev 33(34):95–127Google Scholar
  14. Kumar L, Taylor S (2015) Exposure of coastal built assets in the South Pacific to climate risks. Nat Clim Chang 5(11):992CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Kumar L, Eliot I, Nunn PD, Stul T, McLean R (2018) An indicative index of physical susceptibility of small islands to coastal erosion induced by climate change: an application to the Pacific islands. Geomat Nat Haz Risk 9(1):691–702.  https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2018.1455749CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Leatherman SP, Beller-Simms N (1997) Sea-level rise and small island states: an overview. J Coast Res 24:1–16. https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/25736084.pdfGoogle Scholar
  17. Martínez M, Intralawan A, Vázquez G, Pérez-Maqueo O, Sutton P, Landgrave R (2007) The coasts of our world: Ecological economic and social importance. Ecol Econ 63(2–3):254–272.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.10.022CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Matsuoka Y, Kainuma M, Morita T (1995) Scenario analysis of global warming using the Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). Energy Policy 23(4–5):357–371CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. McCubbin S, Smit B, Pearce T (2015) Where does climate fit? Vulnerability to climate change in the context of multiple stressors in Funafuti, Tuvalu. Glob Environ Chang 30:43–55.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.10.007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. McLean R, Tsyban A, Burkett V, Codignotto J, Forbes D, Mimura N et al (2001) Coastal zones and marine ecosystems. Retrieved from Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. http://papers.risingsea.net/IPCC.html
  21. Mertz O, Halsnæs K, Olesen JE, Rasmussen K (2009) Adaptation to climate change in developing countries. Environ Manag 43(5):743–752.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-008-9259-3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Mimura N (1999) Vulnerability of island countries in the South Pacific to sea level rise and climate change. Clim Res 12(2–3):137–143CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Mohan P, Strobl E (2017) The short-term economic impact of tropical Cyclone Pam: an analysis using VIIRS nightlight satellite imagery. Int J Remote Sens 38(21):5992–6006.  https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2017.1323288CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Mote PW, Salathe EP (2010) Future climate in the Pacific Northwest. Clim Chang 102(1–2):29–50.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9848-zCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Nicholls RJ, Wong PP, Burkett V, Codignotto J, Hay J, McLean R et al (2007) Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Parry M, Canziani O, Palutikof J, van der Linden P, Hanson C (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 44Google Scholar
  26. Nunn PD (2013) The end of the Pacific? Effects of sea level rise on Pacific Island livelihoods. Singap J Trop Geogr 34(2):143–171.  https://doi.org/10.1111/sjtg.12021CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Nunn PD, Mimura N (1997) Vulnerability of South Pacific island nations to sea-level rise. J Coast Res 24:133–151Google Scholar
  28. Nunn PD, Kumar L, Eliot I, McLean RF (2016) Classifying Pacific islands. Geosci Lett 3(1):7.  https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-016-0041-8CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Olsthoorn AA, Maunder WJ, Tol RS (2002) Tropical cyclones in the southwest Pacific: impacts on Pacific island countries with particular reference to Fiji. In: Climate, change and risk. Routledge, London, pp 245–268Google Scholar
  30. Parker R (2018) Unregulated population migration and other future drivers of instability in the Pacific. https://think-asia.org/bitstream/handle/11540/8562/Parker_Unregulated_population_migration.pdf?sequence=1:http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8562
  31. Post JC, Lundin CG (1996) Guidelines for integrated coastal zone management. The World Bank, Washington, DCCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. PRISM (2019) Statistics of Pacific Island Countries and Territories. Pacific Community (SPC). https://prism.spc.int. Accessed 2 June 2019
  33. Ramsay D (2011) Coastal erosion and inundation due to climate change in the Pacific and East Timor. In: Stephens S, Bell R (eds) Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program. Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Australia, p 78Google Scholar
  34. Seto KC, Fragkias M, Güneralp B, Reilly MK (2011) A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion. PLoS One 6(8):e23777.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0023777CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Small C, Nicholls RJ (2003) A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones. J Coast Res 19(3):584–599. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4299200Google Scholar
  36. Terry JP, Lau AA (2018) Magnitudes of nearshore waves generated by tropical cyclone Winston, the strongest landfalling cyclone in South Pacific records. Unprecedented or unremarkable? Sediment Geol 364:276–285.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sedgeo.2017.10.009CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Van Aalst MK (2006) The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters. Disasters 30(1):5–18.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00303.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Von Glasow R, Jickells TD, Baklanov A, Carmichael GR, Church TM, Gallardo L, Raine R (2013) Megacities and large urban agglomerations in the coastal zone: interactions between atmosphere, land, and marine ecosystems. Ambio 42(1):13–28.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0343-9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Warrick R, Oerlemans J (1990) Sea level rise. In: Climate change: The IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  40. Watson RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH, Dokken DJ (1998) The regional impacts of climate change. IPCC, Geneva. http://www.tucson.ars.ag.gov/unit/publications/PDFfiles/1244.pdfGoogle Scholar
  41. White I, Falkland T, Perez P, Dray A, Metutera T, Metai E, Overmars M (2007) Challenges in freshwater management in low coral atolls. J Clean Prod 15(16):1522–1528.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2006.07.051CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Woodroffe CD (2008) Reef-island topography and the vulnerability of atolls to sea-level rise. Glob Planet Chang 62(1–2):77–96CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of Environmental and Rural ScienceUniversity of New EnglandArmidaleAustralia
  2. 2.Faculty of Animal Science and Export Agriculture, Department of Export AgricultureUva Wellassa UniversityBadullaSri Lanka

Personalised recommendations

Cite chapter

Buy options