Abstract
The likelihood component of risk deserves special attention. It is unique in part because of the two methods used to assess its magnitude. As discussed in Chap. 4 and noted elsewhere, direct assessments of the likelihood component of risk leverage probability distributions of threat incidents to specify the probability that a future incident, should it occur, will be of a certain type or possess a specific characteristic. In contrast, indirect assessments use the number of risk factor-related incidents and/or a change in the magnitude of a risk factor to infer the potential for a future type of threat incident.
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Notes
- 1.
Blitzstein, J., Hwang, J. Introduction to Probability. CRC Press, 2014.
- 2.
Popper, Karl, The Logic of Scientific Discovery. New York: Basic Books, 1959.
- 3.
The probability of being assigned a specific erroneous role if roles are assigned randomly is 1/(N-1).
- 4.
Odegard, et al., Western Style Fast Food Intake and Cardiometabolic Risk in an Eastern Country; Circulation, July 8, 2102. http://circ.ahajournals.org/content/126/2/182
- 5.
A. Clauset, M. Young. Scale Invariance in Global Terrorism; Feb 3, 2005.
- 6.
Additive white Gaussian noise has uniform power in the frequency domain and a normal distribution in the time domain.
- 7.
An assumption of normality is not required. However, absent other information regarding the risk factor in question, the normal distribution is considered the most generally applicable.
- 8.
Perimeter Security Design; https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1624-20490-0371/430_ch4.pdf
- 9.
Andrey Andreyevich Markov, Russian mathematician, 1856–1922.
- 10.
See the justification for this view of passwords later in this section.
- 11.
Although the process is not ergodic it is stationary since S(t) will be constant over some time scale determined by the password policy.
- 12.
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Young, C.S. (2019). Elementary Stochastic Methods and Security Risk. In: Risk and the Theory of Security Risk Assessment. Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30600-7_8
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