Keywords

1 Introduction

The need for a global transition to a low carbon economy has gained a lot of attention in recent years following the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 whose main aim is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG ) emissions , thus necessitating a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources . Although many developed countries especially in Europe are able to more easily shift to renewables, the question that arises is, are developing countries such as those in Africa ready for this shift? The strong correlation between economic development and energy consumption also raises the question as to how African countries can address energy poverty and access challenges while at the same time protecting the environment? Given the energy challenges and low rates of economic development in most Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, this chapter poses the following question: are these countries ready to say goodbye to fossil fuels? Meeting developmental goals in these countries and addressing energy challenges will indeed require massive investments in the energy sector , especially if the focus is on clean energy sources such as renewables.

Generally, SSA have vast energy resources, including both conventional and unconventional resources , most of which are untapped. The region, for instance has a natural gas potential of approximately 503.3 Trillion Cubic Feet (Tcf) (BP, 2017) . However, low electrification rates coupled with heavy reliance on inefficient energy sources such as traditional biomass are rampant. Fluctuating fossil fuel prices coupled with their negative impact on the environment, has led to massive investments and an increase in the development of alternative clean energy sources (Nalule, 2018). Renewable Energy Sources (RES ) are now widely recognised as not only being pivotal to solving SSAs energy access challenges, but also those concerning climate change (Avila et al., 2017). Taking into consideration that SSA has massive energy resources such as coal and other fossil fuels, and given the region’s energy access challenges, the fundamental question that arises in this chapter is whether these resources could be utilised in a sustainable manner to address the challenge of energy access? Is a transition to low carbon economy in SSA a myth and if so, what practical steps need to be considered?

In addressing the questions raised above, a four-step framework is employed. Section 2 of this chapter discusses the definition and evolution of energy transition and addresses the developments in Africa with respect to a transition to a low carbon economy; Sect. 3 discusses African efforts in decarbonisation , including the deployment of renewables, energy efficiency and electric vehicles (EVs ); Sect. 4 examines climate change in the context of Africa and Sect. 5 sets out the concluding remarks. Although this chapter looks at Africa in general, emphasis is placed on SSA.

2 Energy Transition : African Perspective

2.1 Understanding Energy Transition

The main global topic in the energy sector right now is ‘a transition to a low carbon economy’. However, this has proved difficult not only in Africa but also Europe and other parts of the globe although the European Union is rightly recognised as leading efforts to address climate change through the development of low carbon legal and policy frameworks (Wood, 2018); however, as discussed below, European countries do not always act so ‘green’ in Africa and abroad. Before we even dwell on the meaning of energy transition , we cannot ignore the recent protests in France by the ‘gilets jaunes ’, who have complained about the sharp increase in diesel taxes —taxes motivated by environmental and climate concerns. France has been a great supporter of the climate change conference having even hosted the 2015 Conference on Climate Change in Paris. However, the protests that started in November 2018 are a reflection of how hard it is to smoothly transition to a low carbon economy.

Energy is central to the economic development of a country, it is used in everyday life for lighting, heating , cooking and transport , to mention but a few (Nalule, 2018). A transition in the energy sector therefore is capable of having a significant impact on the ways of life of different people both socially and economically. This has proved true in France and, in this regard, while suspending the fuel tax increase, the French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, in a statement noted that he understood the protestors’ anger, “…it is the anger of the French who work and work hard, but still have difficulty making ends meet, who find their backs against the wall. They have a sense of profound injustice at not being able to live a dignified life when they are working” (Willsher, 2018). This statement clarifies the realities of not only poorer people in Europe but also those in African countries , and this in turn makes it clear that countries cannot simply say goodbye to fossil fuels without finding cheaper alternatives. It is one thing to have ambitious policies on paper and it is another thing to put these in practice and make them acceptable to struggling populations.

2.2 Definition of Energy Transition

Understanding energy transition necessitates understanding the term transition. In simple terms, transition means the process or a period of changing from one state or condition to another (Oxford Dictionary, 2019). With respect to energy transition , there is no agreed definition. Some scholars have defined it as the change in the composition (structure) of primary energy supply, the gradual shift from a specific pattern of energy provision to a new state of an energy system (Smil, 2010). Basically, energy transition involves the long-term structural change to energy systems. We note here the influence of international institutions in the formulation of the energy transition definition and focus. This influence is mainly driven by these institutions’ long-term strategy and objectives. Taking the example of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA ), it focuses its definition on a transition to renewables. In this regard, IRENA defines energy transition as a pathway toward transformation of the global energy sector from fossil-based to zero-carbon by the second half of this century. According to IRENA , the focus of this transition is to tackle climate change by reducing energy-related CO2 emissions and thereby increasing renewable energy and energy efficiency measures while at the same time reducing the consumption of fossil fuels (IRENA, 2018). In brief, this definition suggests a transition to a low carbon economy, a topic which has attracted massive literature (Niamir et al., 2018).

The above definition notwithstanding, discussions about energy transition should take into consideration the availability of energy resources, the affordability of these resources, the reliability, efficiency, sustainability and the costs of obtaining energy carriers. But we note that all the above elements cannot be fulfilled at once. There are instances where the resources are available and affordable, but not sustainable or in the case of fossil fuels not environmentally friendly. This therefore highlights the progressive character of energy transition , implying that it has to happen gradually and in different stages. Europe is a good example of the progressive character of energy transition , for instance, initially, in the nineteenth century, the focus for European countries was to shift from wood and water power to coal ; in the twentieth century the focus was to shift from coal to oil; in the twenty first century the focus is to shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy . As will be discussed in the next section, the situation for countries in SSA is different, as most of these countries’ focus is to shift from wood to electricity grids (even if these are powered by high-carbon intensity energy resources such as coal). Geography is key in understanding energy transition , for instance, in the post-Communist states of Eastern and Central Europe (ECE) energy developments have focused on the geographical position of these countries between exporting states of the former Soviet Union, on the one hand, and the energy-importing states of Western and Southern Europe , on the other; thus, energy transition has in the past focused on introducing competition in the energy sector through liberalization (Bouzarovski, 2009). It is also noted that post-socialist reforms of energy industries in this region provide unique insights into the complex relations of power, economic transformation and spatial inequality that govern energy production and consumption (Bouzarovski, 2009).

Taking stock of the above, we note that in developed countries such as those in Europe, one of the recognised and celebrated transitions was a historic shift from biomass to fossil fuels. But before we accept a particular global definition of energy transition (current focus being a shift from fossil fuels to renewables ), we need to recognise that developing and developed countries face different energy challenges, and as such the definition should apply differently in these countries. Of course, there is literature that analyses the historical shift and evolution of energy usage. In the distant past, we notice that traditional families in Europe relied on the burning of biomass to meet their energy needs. The nineteenth century was characterised by industrialisation necessitating the transition from wood and water power to coal in the nineteenth century, or from coal to oil in the twentieth (Bouzarovski, 2009). Historically, developed countries such as the UK were heavily reliant on coal to the extent that when faced with a ‘coal panic’ in the late nineteenth century, extreme solutions were suggested including: the urging of military strategists to seize control of coal reserves in foreign lands; and the urging of companies to drive their workers harder to increase the domestic production of coal (Podobnik, 2006). These suggested solutions were however rejected not only by unions inside Britain but also other colonial powers (Podobnik, 2006). Technological innovation and the development of new fuels has in recent years led the UK to focus on a transition from fossil fuels to low carbon energy resources.Footnote 1 These developments in the energy sector therefore reveal the progressive nature of energy transition and as such developing countries and developed countries are at different stages of this transition.

2.3 Energy Transition from an African Perspective

As discussed in the previous section, developing and developed countries face different energy challenges. For instance, whereas in developed countries the use of biomass such as charcoal and firewood is predominantly historical and a topic of the nineteenth century, developing countries such as those in SSA , in contrast, on the other hand are still struggling with a reliance on traditional energy (Nalule, 2018). Understanding the difference between modern energy and traditional energy is also key in understanding energy transition from an African perspective. Modern energy can be distinguished from traditional energy by looking at the quality of energy used, for instance with regard to traditional energy candles, kerosene, and lamps are used for lighting; and firewood for cooking (Nalule, 2018). On the other hand, with regard to modern energy, electricity, natural gas , and liquefied natural gas (LNG ) are used for lighting and cooking, respectively (Nalule, 2018). The focus for SSA countries is access to electricity. We note that electricity in its natural form tends to appear as lighting and static, the technological advancement have enabled primary sources of energy such as coal , nuclear power , running water and of late renewable energy sources to provide this electricity. In this respect, for a country with more than 80% of the population lacking electricity, the focus will not entirely be on the kind of primary energy used to provide this electricity, but rather on ensuring that people shift from wood and biomass usage.

Energy transition is therefore influenced by various factors including: geography ; social and economic situation; political climate ; availability of energy resources; the country’s energy strategy (in the UK for instance the national strategy focuses on a transition to a low carbon economy). Literature has flourished with respect to the latter and as such many energy scholars have focused on a transition to a low carbon economy (Bulkeley et al., 2010; Silver and Marvin, 2018). Discussions on the influence of geography to a low carbon economy are also worth highlighting given the fact that geographical and economic situations have a significant influence on energy transition . These discussions by scholars have also enabled the introduction of various concepts that are believed to have an influence on energy transition including: location, landscape, territoriality, spatial differentiation, scaling, and spatial embeddedness. Bridge et al. (2013) note that more attention to the spaces and places that transition to a low-carbon economy will produce can help better understand what living in a low-carbon economy will be like (Bridge et al., 2013).

Additionally, recognising the differences in societies, literature has flourished discussing terms such as energy justice , climate justice and just transition . Climate justice takes into account the need to share the benefits and burdens of climate change from a human rights perspective; energy justice refers to the application of human rights across the energy life-cycle (Jenkins et al., 2016; Sovacool and Dworkin, 2015); and environmental justice aims to treat all citizens equally and to involve them in the development, implementation and enforcement of environmental laws , regulations and policies (Heffron and McCauley, 2018). A concept that is of relevance to this chapter is that of a just transition which aims to capture the just process when societies move towards an economy free of CO2 emission (see Chaps. 19, 20 and 21 for further discussion of energy justice and just transitions). It has been noted that justice is an important element to the transition, because often the rhetoric of governments, companies, institutions and researchers simply discuss ‘a transition to low carbon economy’ with no concomitant mention of ‘just’ (Heffron and McCauley, 2018). Scholars have also expressed the need to have a united justice, i.e. a concept that aims to unify all the other concepts of justice including climate , energy and environment (Heffron and McCauley, 2018).

Drawing from the discussion above, it is worth exploring what a just transition means to developing countries such as those in SSA. The Oxford Dictionary defines ‘just’ to mean behaving according to what is morally right and fair (Oxford Dictionary, 2019.). At this juncture, it is worthwhile to explore the energy access challenges in developing countries . Globally, it is estimated that approximately 1.2 billion people have no access to modern energy such as electricity and nearly 3 billion people rely on traditional biomass (such as wood and charcoal ) for cooking and heating . (United Nations Foundation, 2019). This number is high in SSA with over 290 million people having no access to modern energy such as electricity (International Energy Agency (IEA), 2014: 13). This is despite the region’s richness in energy resources with an estimated 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves , equivalent to around 5% of the world total (IEA , 2014: 14). According to the African Development Bank (AfDB) . Africa’s power connectivity stands at 39 MW per million inhabitants, the lowest for any developing region. Besides having the lowest level of connectivity in the region, recurrent outages and load shedding are also a major challenge (African Development Bank Group (AfDB, 2019). The AFDB also estimates that more than 30 African countries experience recurrent outages , with opportunity costs amounting to as much as 2% of the total annual value of the economy (AfDB, 2019). Taking stock of the discussion above, a question arises: is it morally right and fair to have over 200 million people lacking access to electricity? The answer to this question is definitely in the negative.

In this respect, it is essential to seriously take into consideration the influence of geography and economic situation of countries before making a transition to a low carbon economy a global goal. The ability of a society to shift from one form of energy to another is basically influenced by that society’s economic prosperity, geographical structure and international relations (Bridge et al., 2013). In an African perspective, with regard to energy transition , we have to note that a majority of the people especially in rural areas live below the poverty line and heavily rely on firewood and charcoal to meet their energy needs (Nalule, 2018). As such these people cannot easily shift from traditional biomass to electricity (renewable based) or LNG unless if these sources of energy are made more affordable for them. Of course, the situation is different for urban Africa, where people basically rely on modern energy including electricity and LNG : additionally, energy is essential for the booming urbanisation taking place in different African countries (Silver and Marvin, 2018). In this respect, the energy access challenges in various developing countries have to be put into consideration before we can globally agree to say goodbye to fossil fuels and other traditional energy sources. This said, a just transition in SSA should focus on utilising all energy sources to not only address energy access challenges but also to ensure the economic development of these countries. Of course, environmental protection should be at the centre of this transition, and in this regard clean technology should be employed to utilise fossil fuels . Also, it is important to note that energy transition is a progressive process and it differs depending on the country and region concerned. It is true there are some countries in SSA that can perhaps more easily transition to a low carbon economy; also, people in urban areas can transition to a low carbon economy more easily than those in rural areas. All these need to be considered when discussing a transition to a low carbon economy in Africa.

3 African Efforts in Decarbonisation

Decarbonisation in simple terms refers to the reduction or removal of carbon dioxide from energy sources. This has been a major goal for many countries aiming to decarbonise the power sector by among others increasing the share of low carbon energy such as renewables; additionally, the reduction of GHG emissions from fossil fuel use via carbon capture and storage technologies and switching from coal to gas has also been identified as forms of decarbonisation , although not without controversy. Although there are various issues to be addressed with regard to decarbonisation . In this section, the focus is on the renewable energy sources in the African energy sector . Before discussing renewables , a brief overview of reliance on fossil fuels will be discussed together with climate change challenges.

3.1 Fossil Fuels Deployment in SSA

As mentioned in the previous section, there are various energy challenges in SSA including lack of access to electricity and heavy reliance on biomass fuel. In the Southern African countries, it has been observed that besides the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC ) and Mozambique , most countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region have a supply deficit. According to the SADC Energy Monitor, as of November 2015, the Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) installed generation capacity stood at 61,859 MW, although available generation was only 46,910 MW (SADC, 2016: 33).

SAPP heavily relies on coal for electricity generation and this accounts for over 62% of the total generation capacity , followed by renewables including hydro at 21%, wind at 43%, solar PV at 2.9%, and distillate at 4.4%. Although traditional biomass in the form of firewood is relied on by most people in rural areas, we note that in terms of electricity generation , this has minimal capacity and as such biomass generally stands at 0.07% of the SAPP installed generation capacity (SADC, 2016: 33).

3.1.1 Coal

Coal is a major source of energy not only in Africa but also other regions including Asia , Europe , and America. It provides approximately 41% of the world’s electricity needs, and global coal supply is predicted to increase at an average rate of 0.6% through 2020 (IEA , 2019). However, there are concerns that developed and developing countries should reduce their coal dependence for energy production and instead look to other cleaner technologies such as renewables (Nalule, 2018).

Before we explore coal dependence in SSA countries, it is worth noting that reliance on fossil fuels is not only a problem in SSA but also other parts of the globe including the EU in countries such as Poland (Leal-Arcas et al., 2019). Despite hosting the 2018 COP24 which aims at reducing GHG emissions by reducing dependence on fossil fuels, Poland is heavily reliant on coal (Euractiv, 2018). The country is indeed endowed with massive coal resources. According to the World Energy Council , global proven hard coal resources are estimated at 665 billion tonnes and Poland accounts for 8.3% of these (676 billion tonnes). As of 2016, total proven hard coal resources in Poland amounted to 58,579 million tonnes and economic reserves were 2,982.72. In 2017, out of the 81 million tonnes of hard coal produced in Europe , 65.5 million tonnes were produced from Poland . With respect to energy mix, in 2015, Poland ’s total primary energy supply was dominated by coal (50.8%), oil (24.5%), gas (14.6%), wind (1.0%) and hydro (0.2%). The coal resources in Poland are worth exploring given the country’s history of opposing EU carbon reduction goals. For instance, in June 2011, Poland was the only EU member state to oppose a more ambitious 25% 2020 emissions reduction target. The country also opposed the EU energy talks when it refused to back a plan that would reduce the surplus of Kyoto carbon permits .

The above situation therefore highlights the fact that transitioning to low carbon economy is not only hard to achieve in SSA but also other parts of the globe. Back to SSA, taking the example of Southern Africa, coal is the most dominant source of electricity in the SADC region, contributing to over 60%, followed by hydro , which contributes 21% of electricity generation capacity. This heavy reliance on coal in SAPP can be attributed to the fact that South Africa dominates the power generation as it accounts for 76% of the overall generation capacity. Moreover, as of March 2015, at least 86% of South Africa ’s total generation capacity of 44,170 MW came from coal fired plants, while 82% of Botswana ’s electricity was produced from coal, and 63% for Zimbabwe . High reliance on coal for electricity in South Africa is the main reason for the high GHG emissions.

It has been argued that hydroelectricity could play a big role in reducing South Africa ’s GHG emissions, especially given the large hydro schemes in the Congo and Mozambique , which could provide an alternative electricity source for South Africa (Mukheibir, 2017). Besides the option of hydroelectricity to replace coal, other lower GHG emission electricity generation options such as imported natural gas feeding into combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) and the pebble bed modular reactor have also been suggested for South Africa especially due to their low GHG emissions (Mukheibir, 2017). Although coal is a main source for South Africa , Botswana , and Zimbabwe , other SADC countries such as DRC , Lesotho , Malawi , and Zambia solely rely on hydropower as a source of electricity generation . Recent criticism over the use of coal has encouraged investments in other energy sources including oil , gas , and renewables , in the generation of electricity. There are also plans for more modern technologies such as supercritical, fluidised bed combustion , and integrated gasification combined-cycle plants , although these still incentivise the use of fossil fuels and have associated problems for addressing climate change.

3.1.2 Oil

Africa is home to massive oil resources. Generally, oil is considered the most important source of energy as it is used in automobiles, planes, trains, and ships among many other uses. In terms of access to energy, electricity is also generated from distillate power plants which basically generate electricity using diesel fuel in countries such as Mozambique , Namibia , and Tanzania and it accounts for close to 5% of the total electricity generation . In this regard, oil resources can contribute in addressing the challenge of energy poverty in Africa (Nalule, 2018).

3.1.3 Fossil Fuels and Low Carbon Transitions in Africa

Indeed, over 80% of Africa’s electricity is generated from fossil fuels (Mekonnen et al., 2018).

Additionally, global demand for fossil fuels is expected to grow by around a third by 2040 (BP , 2018). This increase is mainly driven by increasing prosperity in fast-growing emerging economies such as China and India . Additionally, the increase is also supported by population growth , estimated to increase by around 1.7 billion to reach nearly 9.2 billion people in 2040 (BP , 2018). Moreover, the global boom in urbanisation is projected to increase, as almost 2 billion more people are likely to live in urban centres by 2040 and Africa is projected to contribute one-third of this increasing urbanisation: Productivity levels are also expected to increase, and it is estimated that 2.5 billion people will be lifted from low incomes (BP , 2018). All these global developments imply that Africa will require massive energy resources, especially fossil fuels, to not only cope with the population growth but also with booming urbanisation . Moreover, industrialisation is escalating in most African countries necessitating further demand, again most likely from fossil fuels. Currently, the industrial sector (including the non-combusted use of fuels) consumes around half of all global energy and feedstock fuels, residential and commercial buildings account for 29%, transport 20%, and other sectors account for the remainder (BP, 2018). In the BP Evolving Transition scenario, the industrial sector is expected to account for around half of the increase in energy consumption (BP , 2018).

The simple truth, then, is that Africa will require more energy to meet the anticipated growth in urbanisation , population growth and industrialisation . It is naive to think somehow that the continent will by-pass using fossil fuels in this context, particularly with respect to domestic sources of oil, gas and coal . This does not, however, mean that ‘The Long Goodbye’ to fossil fuel use in Africa will necessarily be that long. Despite the potential of fossil fuels to tackle the challenge of energy access in SSA and to ensure economic development , there are various limitations to the development of this sector including lack of exploration to increase the size of proven reserves; lack of human skills and resources; and lack of essential infrastructure such as pipelines, storage, and refining facilities (Nalule, 2018). With respect to energy infrastructure , it is notable that there are limited petroleum refineries on the African continent leading to Africans being unable to fully benefit from their massive oil resources. The continent, despite its massive oil and gas resources, remains a net importer of petroleum products, thus necessitating the need to invest in more oil refineries . For instance, the African continent has around 46 refineries, far less in number compared to the US with its 137 operating refineries as of January 2015 (Nalule, 2018). Investment in petroleum refineries which have been embraced by the US and other developed countries have indeed contributed to their export capacity in refined products. For instance, in 2013, the United States produced 18.9 million barrels per day of refined petroleum products, more than any other country.

Consumption of fossil fuels is also significantly lower in Africa relative to other regions, and reserves are not huge (Ritchie and Roser, 2019), although an important caveat is that individual country consumption and reserves differs markedly. Importantly, between 1990–2005, Africa was responsible for just 2.5% of global cumulative CO2 emissions from fossil fuels (Mekonnen et al., 2018). There are also international initiatives, notably the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC ), notably the Paris Agreement , which aims, amongst other goals, to limit anthropogenic global warming to 1.5°C and “reaffirms the obligations of developed countries to support the efforts of developing country Parties to build clean, climate-resilient futures” (UNFCCC, 2019) through finance, technology and capacity-building support.Footnote 2

Although subsequent sections of this chapter will focus on the role of renewable energy in Africa, it is also worth pointing out other problems with the reducing fossil fuel use in Africa. 60% of international public finance in African energy goes to fossil fuels. In stark contrast, just 18% goes to cleaner alternatives. This leads to concerns that other, typically wealthy countries might be offshoring GHG emissions (Russell, 2018). Indeed, between 2014 and 2016, the “single biggest public investor in African energy was China. Hailed as a world leader on renewable energy development, 85% of its investments [US $5 billion a year] in African energy went into coal , oil and gas ” (Russell, 2018). Germany , another world leading driver of renewables , was the third largest provider of public finance in fossil fuels. One reason underlying this trend in promoting fossil fuel use include countries embarking on the low carbon energy transition attempting to secure energy supplies. Whatever the reasons, this increases the risk of locking in fossil fuel dependence and aggravating attempts to deploy renewables in Africa. It also leads to the increasing risk of fossil-fuel related fiscal burdens, especially in SSA given future population growth coupled with economic growth (Worrall et al., 2018). Critically, without alternatives to fossil fuels, there is a need for African countries to continue to develop and industrialise and tackle energy access issues (Nalule, 2018).

4 Climate Change Challenges in Africa

In the previous section we explored the reliance of fossil fuels in the SSA energy mix. Fossil fuels have been firmly attributed to causing GHG emissions and as such efforts to tackle climate change are, among other initiatives, focused on reducing the reliance of fossil fuels.

There have been various global efforts to tackle climate change. For instance, recently, the 24th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP24 ) was held in Katowice, Poland from the 2nd–14th December 2018. COP24 involved the most important climate talks and negotiations since the COP21 Paris Agreement reached in 2015. It was at COP21 that world leaders agreed to ensure that global warming stayed below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Commitments were also made at COP21 to increase financing for climate action and the development of ‘national climate plans’ by 2020. In the same spirit, COP24 focused on discussions of how to put the 2015 Paris Agreement into practice including how governments will measure, report on and verify their emissions. There are indeed various national, regional and global efforts to address climate change. The global energy challenge in the twenty first century is to bring about a new transition, towards a more sustainable energy system characterised by universal access to energy services, and security and reliability of supply from efficient, low-carbon sources (Bridge et al., 2013). Shifting to a low carbon economy requires taking into consideration the energy challenges faced by various societies. This also should focus on the social, political and economic situation in those regions.

In this section the effects of climate change in SSA will be discussed. On the one hand, according to the Oxford Dictionary, “climate change is a change in global or regional climate patterns, in particular a change apparent from the mid to late 20th century onwards and attributed largely to the increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced by the use of fossil fuels” (Oxford Dictionary, 2019). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC ), on the other hand defines climate change as the state of climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability by its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer (IPCC , 2007). These changes affect the general environment and this in turn not only affects humans but also other species and the biosphere.

The world has experienced events which have been connected to climate change including more frequent wildfires , longer periods of drought and an increase in the number, duration and intensity of tropical storms . It has been noted that Africa is the most vulnerable continent to climate change impacts (Adenle et al., 2017), as it is expected to severely disrupt water and food systems, public health and agricultural livelihoods, not to mention causing enhanced droughts, sea level rise, and changes in the incidence and prevalence of vector-borne disease (Adenle et al., 2017). These projected changes are expected to exacerbate already high levels of food and water insecurity, poverty and poor health and undermine economic development (Adenle et al., 2017). In addition, it has been observed that climate change impacts to the agricultural sector are likely to drive rapid urbanisation in Africa. It has been argued that changes in the climate push people from rural areas to urban areas, and as such urbanisation is seen as an ‘escape’ from the deteriorating agricultural productivity caused by climate change (Nalule, 2018).

In the Southern African region, for instance, the effects of climate change in the form of frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods are not only evident in sectors such as agriculture and fishery but also present in the energy sector : for instance, countries that rely heavily on large hydropower schemes have indeed been affected with the climate change impacts such as droughts. A case in point is the SADC country of Zambia , which was left facing a 560-megawatt power deficit due to reduced water levels at the Kariba lake reservoir. Indeed, research on the effects of climate change on the Zambezi River Basin points to the fact that an increasingly dry climate will typically reduce hydropower generation for both new and existing plants; as such it has been found necessary to not only seek other alternative energy sources but also to integrate both climate change and upstream development demands into the feasibility studies before investment decisions are made (Nalule, 2018). The negative impact of climate change have therefore made it crucial for the region to ensure the deployment of climate resilient energy assets (Stiles and Murove, 2015: 9). A case in point is the El Niño climate event in Southern Africa which left approximately 21.3 million people in the region requiring emergence assistance due to the drought it has caused since 2015 (United States Agency for International Development (USAID), 2017a). El Niño has deteriorated various sectors such as agriculture, food security , livestock, nutrition and water, sanitation and hygiene conditions in countries such as Lesotho , Madagascar , Malawi , Mozambique , Swaziland , Zambia and Zimbabwe (USAID, 2017a). Basically, El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon that involves fluctuations of sea surface temperatures and winds across the equatorial Pacific Ocean . Historically, it raises chances of receiving below average rainfall during the main crop growing season in Southern Africa. Besides Southern Africa, the impacts of climate change have also been evident in East African countries such as Kenya , South Sudan , and Uganda , which have been hit with major drought leading to famine in various parts of these countries (Nalule, 2018). Reflecting on the discussion above, it goes without saying that Africa will experience diverse and severe impacts of climate change, making adaptation essential in these countries. Adaptation refers to the efforts across scales to build resilience and reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change (Europa, 2019). However, this faces many varying constraints in different African countries including among others insufficient climate data; limited engagement of adaptation responses to national planning processes and local expertise; failure to make adaptation responses broad so as to not only cover climate change but also climate variability and broader developmental issues; and insufficient adaptation finances. Additionally, there are other challenges facing adaptation in Africa including technical, political, institutional, economic, and social dimensions. For instance, with regard to the technical challenges, it is hard to develop better projections of climate change in African countries (although this is important for adaptation) and this is due to a lack of historical information on weather and climate (Nalule, 2018).

5 Decarbonisation Through the Deployment of Renewables

The development of renewable energy sources is not only essential to tackle energy access challenges in SSA but also recognised as being essential in the decarbonisation of the power sector . Moreover, the need to reduce carbon emissions has not only emphasised the role of renewable energy and the deployment of clean technologies, but it has also triggered scholars to consider other mechanisms such as improved electricity storage as ways of curbing emissions, albeit this depends on the competitiveness of renewable energy against conventional electricity generation .Footnote 3

Typically, by definition, renewable energies are energy sources that are continually replenished by nature and derived directly from the sun (such as thermal, photo-chemical and photo-electric), indirectly from the sun (such as wind, hydropower and photosynthetic energy stored in biomass ) or from other natural movements and mechanisms of the environment (such as geothermal and tidal energy ) (Ellabban et al., 2014).

There are various advantages of renewable energy sources , for instance, hydro resources have considerable potential to be utilised for power generation. On the other hand, solar and wind energy resources are considered to be excellent for applications such as water pumping, water heating and power generation through centralised schemes, mini-grids and stand-alone systems (Ershad, 2017). Notwithstanding the advantages associated with renewable energy sources , there are some shortcomings relating to the reliance of renewables to expand supply of electricity, which are prone to impacts of climate change hence hampering hydropower , the intermittency and variability of solar and wind and the risk of over-generation and curtailment (Avila et al., 2017).

At the national level, SSA countries are investing more in renewables. South Africa , a country which meets 80% of its energy needs from coal-fired plants , has plans to diversify its energy production through the deployment of renewables. In this respect, the country has goals to reach 11.5 GW capacity of onshore wind , 8 GW capacity of solar PV and 600 MW capacity of CSP (concentrated solar power ) by 2030. In Kenya , there are ambitious plans to diversify the energy sector through the deployment of renewables especially geothermal . At present, Kenya ’s energy mix is dominated by biomass at 67%; petroleum at 22% and 9% electricity. Kenya is the 8th in the world with respect to geothermal energy production, and there are plans to add 1,745 MW of geothermal generation by 2025. In Zambia , there huge hydro resources and the country is estimated to possess 40% of the water resources in SADC, although Zambia is estimated to have developed only 2,177 MW. Around 6,000 MW of hydro potential is still unexploited and as such this presents a huge renewable energy potential in the country (Zambia Development Agency, 2014). We note that access to energy is a big challenge in many of these countries despite their richness in energy resources. For instance, in Zambia , despite the country’s richness in energy resources, only around 22% of the 13.5 million people in Zambia have access to electricity and these are mostly based in rural areas, where it is estimated that 22% are electrified compared to 4.5% in urban areas. This differs from most African countries, where it is usually the urban areas which are highly electrified.Footnote 4

There are indeed various developments at the national level but in this section the focus will be on regional efforts to deploy renewables in SSA.

5.1 SSA Regional Efforts in Renewable Energy

Although the SSA region still faces the challenge of energy poverty , there is potential to meet this challenge by utilising the enormous renewable resources available in the region. There is no doubt that SSA is very rich in renewable energy resources, with solar potential totalling about 10,000 GW; wind potential, totalling about 109 GW, mostly in the coastal countries; geothermal capacity estimated at 15 GW especially in the East African Rift Valley; and exploitable hydropower estimated at about 350 GW mainly located in Angola, Cameroon , Ethiopia, Gabon, and DRC (Avila et al., 2017). Despite these enormous resources and the global commitment to increase the percentage of renewables in the energy mix, there are some basic requirements that need to be fulfilled if the vision is to be attained. These requirements were summarised by Arila et al. in their renewable guide to include among others: policies that incentivise renewable energy deployment; enabling legal frameworks; innovative financing mechanisms; and electricity supply strategies that prioritise the diversity of resources such as dispatchable renewables (Avila et al., 2017).

At a regional level, there should be a legal basis for the development of the energy sector and in this respect renewables. Typically, treaties are the legal basis for regional cooperation in the development of the different energy sectors including the renewable energy sector. The SADC Treaty for instance under Chapter seven provides for the different areas of regional cooperation, amongst which is cooperation in infrastructure and environment.Footnote 5 It is worth noting that the SADC Treaty does not expressly make mention of regional cooperation in the energy sector or specifically the renewable energy sector . Nevertheless, this falls under infrastructure, which is expressly mentioned in the Treaty. Comparatively, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Treaty under Chapter V expressly mentions the need for cooperation in the energy sector and environment.Footnote 6 Whereas the ECOWAS Treaty goes ahead to mention the energy sector , it does not however make specific reference to renewables. These treaties are backed by the various energy protocols which detail cooperation in the energy sector at a regional level. A case in point is the ECOWAS Energy Protocol which is elaborative with respect to the governance of the energy sector at the regional level.

Besides the various Regional Economic Communities (RECs) Treaties and energy protocols, there are other instruments that have an impact on not only the renewable energy sector but energy in general. These take the form of master plans and other regional programmes. In SADC, for instance, the Energy Sector Plan (ESP), which is under the auspices of the SADC Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan, is intended to address four key strategic objectives including ensuring energy security , improving access to modern energy services, tapping the abundant energy resources, and achieving financial investment and environmental sustainability (Nalule, 2018). One of the sectors covered by the ESP includes renewable energy and energy efficiency. Furthermore, in SADC, besides the master plan there have been an implementation of programmes in the renewable energy sector in line with the SADC Energy Protocol including the following: the Energy Sector Plan of the SADC Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan (REASAP, 2012); the Regional Energy Access Strategy and Action Plan (REASAP, 2012); the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Strategy & Action Plan (REEESAP 2016–2030); the Programme for Biomass Energy Conservation (ProBEC) ; and the United Nations Development Programme-supported Financing Energy Services for Small-Scale Energy Users Project (SADC, 2016: 55). In ECOWAS , besides the Energy Protocol and the Treaty, the ECOWAS/UEMOA White Paper on access to energy services for populations in rural and peri-urban areas was adopted in 2006, and this encourages the use of renewable energy in reaching the electrification goals (ECOWAS, 2019).

5.2 Institutions

Besides the establishment of various laws and policies, efforts to mainstream renewable energy and energy efficiency (RE & EE) have been experienced in SSA at the regional level through the establishment of regional centres. There is no doubt that SSA REC through their various activities in the renewable energy sector aim at meeting the objectives of the UNs Sustainable Energy for All initiatives. The establishment of RE & EE regional centres indeed follows the successful establishment of regional power pools such as the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP ) and the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP) in Southern and Eastern Africa, respectively. Whereas regional power pools are mostly concerned with power trading, the RE & EE centres are mostly concerned with the promotion of RE & EE technologies and the development of markets. This is envisaged through sharing information and best practices; developing sound policy, regulatory, and legal frameworks; and building the capacity within the member states of RECs concerned. These centres are at different stages of development with some RECs such as ECOWAS having functional institutions and others such as EAC and SADC being in the preparatory stages of establishing these institutions. In West Africa, the ECOWAS Regional Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (ECREE) legally came into existence by the adoption of Regulation C/REG 23/11/08 in 2008 at the 61st Session of ECOWAS Council of Ministers—and the secretariat of the centre was established in Praia, Cape Verde in 2010 (ECOWAS, 2019).

Although we note that in West Africa the renewable centre has been in existence for more than a decade, in East and Southern Africa, preparations are still underway to establish the regional renewable energy centres. In EAC, for instance, the East African Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (EACREE) was approved during the 33rd Meeting of Council of Ministers held on 29 February 2016. In fact, Makerere University College of Engineering, Art, Design and Technology (CEDAT) was designated as a Centre of Excellence for EACREE. In Southern Africa, the establishment of the SADC Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (SACREE) was approved by the SADC energy ministers on 24 July 2015.

Whereas the objectives of RE & EE centres are promising, it is imperative to note that these will not be achieved by the mere establishment of these centres. There is a need to strengthen not only regional institutions such as regional regulator associations, but also to establish and strengthen national institutions (SADC, n.d.: 35). These are necessary to adopt and implement regional RE & EE projects. However, we note that not all countries are at the same level of establishing the necessary institutions. In SADC for instance, the Regional Electricity Regulatory Association (RERA) is comprised of only 12 Regulatory Agencies implying that three SADC member states have not yet set up national regulatory authorities. Moreover, in order to achieve regional renewable energy targets, there is a need to establish renewable energy agencies and national frameworks for RE in all member states of various RECs (SADC, n.d.: 35).

Due to the various challenges in different countries such as political instability, lack of technical expertise, and financial constraints, SSA RECs are facing discrepancies in the development of RE policies and frameworks at the national level. Taking the example of SADC, South Africa seems to be a step ahead when it comes to RE national policies. For instance, in 2011 the Department of Energy launched the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPP or REI4P) and this is used to tender large-scale installation including technologies such as solar PV , onshore wind , small hydro , landfill gas, and biomass (SADC, n.d.). There are therefore various challenges when it comes to implementing both regional policies and institutional mechanisms aimed at promoting the development of renewable energy as a mechanism of tackling energy access and climate change in SSA.

5.3 Energy Efficiency in SSA

A discussion on renewable energy brings into play the issue of energy efficiency. Generally, the global energy consumption is on the increase in many countries, leading not only to increased local air pollution but also GHG emissions. Energy efficiency and various technological advancements in the energy sector are considered as some of the available options for the reduction of carbon emissions . Moreover, energy efficiency is also considered as a complement of renewable energy—considering that the reduction of energy demand through energy efficiency is capable of improving the financial feasibility of renewable energy options (SADC, 2015).

Although there are common challenges faced by both the developed and developing countries as regards the enhancement of energy efficiency, there are some challenges which are unique to SSA countries. These include, lack of local trained workforce; poor regulatory environment and governance; and lack of access to financing for energy efficiency projects. Notwithstanding the challenges encountered in employing energy efficient techniques, many governments and firms around the world have adopted policies and programs to capture the benefits that accrue from energy efficiency. In SSA, several countries have employed different energy efficiency activities including basic Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL) replacement programs. In the SADC region, over ten-member states have instituted CFL replacement programs (SADC, 2015). Other initiatives include solar water heating; demand market participation; standards and labelling; hot water load control; awareness programs; and energy audits in the industrial and building sectors. Ghana, for instance, introduced a programme for labelling appliances, aimed at revealing to the consumers the energy consumption and efficiency of the product. These efforts together with the regulatory framework have led to an estimated peak energy savings of over 120 mega- watts (MW). Additionally, the programme has saved the country USD 105 million in generation investment and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by over 11,000 tons annually (USAID, 2017b). In South Africa , the establishment of energy efficiency incentive programs by Eskom led to the saving of over three gigawatts of total cumulative energy (USAID, 2017b). In Namibia , in an endeavour to increase research in energy efficiency, the Department of Civil Engineering built a demonstration and research house, where 60–70% of energy is saved in the residential building through thermal envelope, air tightness, and sub-soil heat exchangers (SADC, n.d.: 42). Mauritius, on the other hand, instituted a National Energy Efficiency Programme. Improved cook stove programs are also being embraced in various SSA countries as a form of energy efficiency: In the SADC region for instance, all the countries except Mauritius and Seychelles have programs aimed at increasing the use of energy efficient cook stoves (SADC, 2015).

In terms of regional efforts, various institutions including the SAPP in SADC have played a big role in promoting energy efficiency including developing specific programs for CFL replacement and initiating an expanded Energy Efficiency Framework. The Framework covers four technologies including CLFs, Commercial lighting retrofits, solar water heating, and distribution transformer retrofits. Additionally, in the SADC region, there are more than five national utilities which, on the basis of the SAPP initiative, developed demand-side management (DSM) on their own (SADC, 2015). In terms of energy intensity (this is used as a measure of energy efficiency of an economy), some countries are doing better than others, for instance in the SADC region, the DRC , Mozambique , and Zimbabwe have the highest, at 19.1, 17.9, and 17.5 Megajoules, respectively (SADC, 2015). Due to the employment of energy efficiency in the SADC region, there was a demand energy reduction of 4500 MW by the end of 2015 (SADC, 2016).

5.4 Movement to Electric Vehicles

The transport sector is one of the largest contributors of GHG emissions and this has necessitated steps to find alternative transport thus leading to the introduction of e-transport. In the EU there is an ambitious target to reduce the use of internal combustion engine vehicles by 50% by 2030. Further to this, the alternative fuels directive encourages Member States to develop systems which enable EVs to feed power back into the grid.

With respect to Africa, there are no ambitious plans and not much progress has been made in the deployment of EVs as is the case in Europe . However, EVs have made their way in countries such as South Africa , Kenya , Madagascar and Zimbabwe . In South Africa , electric cars were introduced by Nissan Leaf in 2014. BMW later also entered the market introducing its i3 and i8 brands. Jaguar Land Rover also has plans to enter the SA electric vehicle market. The brand in partnership with electric vehicle charging authority GridCars, and with a R30-million infrastructure investment- plans to invest in EV infrastructure including setting up 82 new public charging stations in the country’s major hubs and along frequently-travelled holiday routes (Jaguar, 2019). In Kenya , people are embracing second hand EVs and close to 100 units have been imported, mostly Nissan Leafs. There are plans to grow an all-electric fleet (Nissan Leafs) to 200 by 2020 (Nopia, 2019). Used Nissan Leafs EVs are also common in Zimbabwe and these are sourced from Japan . The country also has electric motorbikes mostly from the Chinese market. Nevertheless, on a general basis, Zimbabwe generally has a small vehicle market with annual new gas/diesel sales of under 5,000. In Madagascar , EVs were introduced in 2015 with the arrival of two Chinese EVs , the BAIC EV-Series and the BYD Qin PHEV (CleanTechnica, 2018). Additionally, in Uganda, there is potential and support for EV. In this respect, Kiira Motors Corporation (KMC) an Automotive Manufacturing Company was incorporated by the Government of Uganda and Makerere University with the main aim of championing value addition in the Domestic Automotive Industry. In 2011, the company designed Africa’s first electric car , and this was followed by its first hybrid car in 2014 and a solar bus in 2016. The electric car , under the Kiira EV Smack is a 5-seater front-wheel drive sedan with a traction motor powered by a rechargeable battery bank and an internal combustion engine-based generator (KMC, 2019a); the Kiira EV is Africa’s first electric vehicle. It employs a simple battery electric vehicle powertrain consisting of an Energy storage bank, energy converter and an electric motor (KMC, 2019a). It is powered by electricity which is stored in the battery bank through repetitive charging. The solar bus is under ‘the Kayoola bus concept’, the bus relies on lithium-ion batteries to power an electric motor that is coupled to a 2-speed pneumatic shift transmission (KMC, 2019b).

6 Conclusions

Renewable energy is accepted not only as a solution to energy access challenges but also to climate change . However, as discussed in the sections above, SSA countries are not ready to bid farewell to fossil fuels as these energy sources still have a significant role to play in not only tackling energy access challenges but also in ensuring the economic development of SSA countries. However, given the negative impacts of fossil fuels to the environment, SSA countries should make efforts to mitigate these effects by among others deploying clean technologies.

With more investments in clean energy and reforms in the energy laws, SSA is expected to transition to a low a carbon economy. However, this should not be expected to happen at the same rate as the developed regions, such as those in Europe , as such global efforts to decarbonise have to take into consideration the differences not only in economic development but also the geographic and social dimensions of various countries. Nevertheless, there are efforts in SSA to not only switch to renewables in power generation but also to move to e-transport . Such initiatives are what will help drive SSA forward in the low-carbon energy transition , although it is not without challenges. Additionally, global discussions on energy transition , especially a transition to a low carbon economy, have not placed significant focus on what practical steps are required for developing countries to achieve this transition.

Nevertheless, we have seen incidences where regional organisations compromise their targets to accommodate countries that are heavily reliant on fossil fuels. The EU , although a champion of the transition to a low carbon economy, is a good example of that especially with respect to its patience and compromise to Poland , a country heavily reliant on coal. This highlights the reality of low carbon transitions. With respect to SSA regional organisations, there have been regional efforts to shift to low carbon economies and these are supported in turn at the national level as countries are embracing renewable energy and energy efficiency. Nevertheless, the enormous energy access challenges in SSA makes us question the practicability of saying goodbye to fossil fuels when over 200 million people still rely on inefficient forms of energy such as firewood and candles for cooking and lighting, respectively.

In conclusion therefore, it is imperative to understand energy transition as a progressive process which cannot happen on a global level but rather differs depending on the country and region concerned. Technological advancement and the level of economic development of a country also plays a big role in energy transition . For instance, in the EU countries are moving towards smart grids , smart meters and electric vehicles . These are all enabled by the technological advancement of these countries and also due to the available investments; however, a country like Malawi in Southern Africa or Uganda in East Africa cannot jump from firewood to smart grids or electric cars —energy transition evolves with social and economic advancements and as such bidding farewell to fossil fuels should take into consideration the energy challenges of different countries and also focus on applying justice in the movement to a low carbon future .