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Europe’s Sustainable Road Freight Transport to 2050: Closing the Gap Between Reality and Vision

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Air Power and Freight

Part of the book series: SpringerBriefs in Energy ((BRIEFSENERGY))

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Abstract

The previous chapter deals with the recovery of energy use by the rebound effect of the freight transport sector. The chapter has two main objectives: (1) to imagine the future by proposing a vision to achieve a sustainable freight system; and (2) to provide transport policy solutions for the sector to 2050. This chapter describes Europe’s freight transport system (mainly the road mode: EUFT). Following the step by step description of backcasting the method is applied to freight transport to make decisions, formulate measures and strengthen their acceptance. Our analysis demonstrates that the system is under pressure as environmental limits are reached and as infrastructure bottlenecks worsen. Our findings also confirm that by using the knowledge of stakeholders, we can make decisions more rationally and propose a framework to identify policy targets, build storylines, and find key megatrends to build the vision. We propose a vision which allows freight transport in the European Union (Freight) to take actions to face challenges effectively. The vision is a reaction to the megatrends.

Our stakeholder led approach enables: (a) making decisions for freight transport planning; (b) developing the vision for freight; (c) the identification of the quantitative targets to 2050 and (d) the policy analysis of Freight in the European Union. By backcasting storylines, an action plan can be generated to propose a roadmap towards a leaner, low carbon and resilient Freight system. Our backcasting exercise produces 12 policy areas to promote the sustainability of the Freight sector by 2050 in the EU. Measures span from targets for energy efficiency of moving freight to modal split, e-infrastructure, to truck dimension and to the expansion of a low carbon infrastructure capacity achieved through enlarging the rail network. The backcasting method provides an opportunity for stakeholders to: (a) experience the future to 2050, (b) adopt a common understanding for the future of freight and (c) acquire legitimacy for those policies. The BaU (business as usual) future does not include the limits to growth argument; this chapter challenges that view.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Freight transport includes: road freight, rail freight and inland waterways freight. We exclude airfreight from this study.

  2. 2.

    One key difference, with other studies, is the time length of previous studies with the Shell scenarios (open futures) taking the longest amongst the most well-known ones. This is a much longer period than that taken by the FVision workshops.

  3. 3.

    Globally the freight transport sector (combining the sectors of the EU-28 Member States and the rest of the world) accounts for roughly 47% of total energy use in 2006 (all modes included) and the share is growing from 38% (Gilbert and Perl 2008). Trucking energy use accounts for one quarter of total energy use of world transport (Exxon-mobil 2013).

  4. 4.

    The precautionary principle argues that it is better to act now rather than later since the consequences of not acting outweigh those in its absence.

  5. 5.

    The terminology used at the workshops poses problems when the quantitative targets are presented. A few stakeholders, who were invited to participate in building the vision to 2050, were reported to be confused when using the concept of vision and scenario. This proves to be a useful learning outcome as it becomes obvious that many stakeholders are not familiar with visioning and backcasting exercises and they have to be constantly reminded of what a vision involves at each meeting.

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Acknowledgements

The overall result of this visioning exercise can be found in the book Freightvision published in 2011 (Helmreich and Keller 2011). This methodological chapter is partly based on the work in Helmreich, S. and Keller H. provided the initial concept for the overall vision. This work would have been possible without the FVision team: S. Helmreich, H. Keller, J. Schmiele, T. Mattila, Antikainnen, R., Dueh, J., Meyer-Ruhle, O., Vellay, C., Jorna, R., Zuiver H., Jammerneg, W., Rosic, H., Bauer, G., and Berry John. As well as the many companies’ executives that attended our meetings in Belgium. This article acknowledges funding by the EC. The project was funded (Contract n.: TREN/FP7TR/21927-“FREIGHTVISION”) Duration: 01.09.2008.

Research assistance for updating Graphs and Tables is gratefully acknowledged by J. Navarro Guevara. Research assistance by Nihan Akyelken (University of Oxford, Transport Studies Unit, School of Geography and Environment) is also acknowledged.

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  1. National Autonomous University of Mexico, (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México) Institute of Economic Research, Mexico, Mexico

    David Bonilla

  2. Transport Studies Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    David Bonilla

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Bonilla, D. (2020). Europe’s Sustainable Road Freight Transport to 2050: Closing the Gap Between Reality and Vision. In: Air Power and Freight . SpringerBriefs in Energy. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-27783-3_3

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