Abstract
Common forecasting methods fail to accurately model the nonlinear and time-varying fluctuations of product demand. Reservoir computing (RC) utilizes a dynamical system to project time-series data to a higher-dimensional state representation extracting mathematical relations within complex demand functions. We demonstrate forecasting accuracy of RC on a multivariate product demand dataset.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Bengio, Y., Simard, P., Frasconi, P.: Learning long-term dependencies with gradient descent is difficult. IEEE Trans. Neural Networks 5, 157–166 (1994)
Coulibaly, P.: Reservoir computing approach to Great Lakes water level forecasting. J. Hydrol. 381(1–2), 76–88 (2010)
Ediger, V.Ş., Akar, S.: ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey. Energy Policy 35(3), 1701–1708 (2007)
Hammer, B., Steil, J.J.: Tutorial: perspectives on learning with RNNs. In: Proc. ESANN, pp. 357–368 (2002)
Holt, C.C.: Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages. Int. J. Forecast. 20(1), 5–10 (2004)
Hyndman, R.J., Athanasopoulos, G.: Forecasting: Principles and Practice. OTexts (2018)
Jaeger, H.: The “echo state” approach to analysing and training recurrent neural networks. GMD Report 148. German National Research Center for Information Technology (2018)
Jaeger, H., Haas, H.: Harnessing nonlinearity: predicting chaotic systems and saving energy in wireless communication. Science 304, 78–80 (2004)
Kohzadi, N., Boyd, M.S., Kermanshahi, B., Kaastra, I.: A comparison of artificial neural network and time series models for forecasting commodity prices. Neurocomputing 10(2), 169–181 (1996)
Larger, L., Soriano, M.C., Brunner, D., Appeltant, L., Gutiérrez, J.M., Pesquera, L., Mirasso, C.R., Fischer, I.: Photonic information processing beyond Turing: an optoelectronic implementation of reservoir computing. Opt. Express 20, 3241–3249 (2012)
Maass, W., Natschläger, T., Markram, H.: Real-time computing without stable states: a new framework for neural computation based on perturbations. Neural Comput. 14(11), 2531–2560 (2002)
Salmen, M., Ploger, P.G.: Echo state networks used for motor control. In Proceedings of the 2005 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation, pp. 1953–1958 (2005)
Seabold, S., Perktold, J.: Statsmodels: econometric and statistical modeling with python. In: 9th Python in Science Conference (2010)
Sheng, C., Zhao, J., Liu, Y., Wang, W.: Prediction for noisy nonlinear time series by echo state network based on dual estimation. Neurocomputing 82, 186–195 (2012)
Taylor, J.W.: Short-term electricity demand forecasting using double seasonal exponential smoothing. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 54(8), 799–805 (2003)
Triefenbach, F., Demuynck, K., Martens, J.P.: Large vocabulary continuous speech recognition with reservoir-based acoustic models. IEEE Signal Process. Lett. 21(3), 311–315 (2014)
Verstraeten, D., Schrauwen, B., Dieleman, S., Brakel, P., Buteneers, P., Pecevski, D.: Oger: modular learning architectures for large-scale sequential processing. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 13, 2995–2998 (2012)
Williams, B., Durvasula, P., Brown, D.: Urban freeway traffic flow prediction: application of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and exponential smoothing models. Transp. Res. Rec.: J. Transp. Res. Board 1644, 132–141 (1998)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Calvimontes, J., Bürger, J. (2020). Product Demand Forecasting Based on Reservoir Computing. In: Leiras, A., González-Calderón, C., de Brito Junior, I., Villa, S., Yoshizaki, H. (eds) Operations Management for Social Good. POMS 2018. Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-23816-2_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-23816-2_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-23815-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-23816-2
eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)