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A Hybrid Approach for Short-Term NO2 Forecasting: Case Study of Bay of Algeciras (Spain)

  • Steffanie Van RoodeEmail author
  • Juan Jesus Ruiz-Aguilar
  • Javier González-Enrique
  • Ignacio J. Turias
Conference paper
Part of the Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing book series (AISC, volume 950)

Abstract

A hybrid model is proposed in this research in order to forecast concentration values of NO2 with one-hour prediction horizon in the air quality monitoring network of the Bay of Algeciras area (Spain). Air pollution is an important environmental problem these days and it requires control. However, it is not an easy task. The main problem is that air pollution data series are non-lineal and non-stationary. Thus, techniques based on regression and simple models are not able to entirely capture the phenomenon behaviour. A LASSO-ANN hybrid model is proposed. The first step has been to predict the linear part of the time-series performing a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model. Later, an artificial neural network (ANN) model has been performed to predict the residual sequence, the unexplained part of the LASSO model. The chaotic residual behaviour has been smoothed using an autoregressive moving window and applying the window median. The last step has been to aggregate the predicted NO2 value and its predicted residual. The model has been validated and tested using cross-validation based on R correlation coefficient, MSE, MAE and d index of agreement, and also Friedman test and LSD test. In addition, the proposed approach has been compared to a simple ANN model. The results reveal that hybrid model presents a better performance than a multiple linear regression and also a simple ANN model. The main purpose is to develop a forecasting model capable of capturing the non-linear information of the variable and increase the accuracy of the outputs.

Keywords

Air pollution forecast Artificial neural networks Hybrid models LASSO 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This work is part of the coordinated research projects TIN2014-58516-C2-1-R and TIN2014-58516-C2-2-R supported by MICINN (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad - Spain). Monitoring data have been kindly provided by the Environmental Agency of the Andalusian Government.

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Steffanie Van Roode
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  • Juan Jesus Ruiz-Aguilar
    • 1
    • 3
  • Javier González-Enrique
    • 1
    • 2
  • Ignacio J. Turias
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Intelligent Modelling of Systems Research Group, Polytechnic School of EngineeringUniversity of CádizAlgecirasSpain
  2. 2.Department of Computer Science Engineering, Polytechnic School of EngineeringUniversity of CádizAlgecirasSpain
  3. 3.Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Polytechnic School of EngineeringUniversity of CádizAlgecirasSpain

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