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Defeating Presidents from Within: Regime Insiders and Turnover in Senegal

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Party Proliferation and Political Contestation in Africa

Part of the book series: Contemporary African Political Economy ((CONTAPE))

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Abstract

This chapter explains why it is that politicians who have accessed state resources through ministerial appointments, known as “ex-regime insiders,” who were the most serious electoral challengers in the 1993, 2000, 2007, and 2012 presidential elections, and why those insiders brought about presidential turnover in 2000 and 2012 only. The analysis first discusses the sources of insider advantage, identifying various opportunities that insiders’ access to the state gives them to develop a competitive edge over other opposition candidates in presidential elections. With quantitative and qualitative data about presidential candidates in Senegal’s 1993, 2000, 2007, and 2012 elections, the chapter illustrates these mechanisms and evaluates the extent to which insiders outperform outsiders. Then, it accounts for how presidential turnovers happened in 2000 and 2012, but not in 1993 and 2007. The research uses primary and secondary sources to trace how more contingent factors (uncertainty about the timing of succession and insider candidates’ resistance to negotiating patronage) influenced each campaign, while also demonstrating how structural factors (opposition coalescence and economic performance) also heightened chances of turnover in 2000 and 2012. The chapter closes by addressing the implications of insider advantage for democratization in Senegal under both Wade and Macky Sall.

The statements and analysis expressed are solely those of the author and have not been approved by the House of Delegates or the Board of Governors of the American Bar Association and do not represent the position or policy of the American Bar Association.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Even if we more restrictively operationalize insiders as candidates who have been ministers just within the last electoral cycle, the difference in means is striking, with insiders (N = 10) winning an average of 13.3% of the vote share and outsiders (N = 31) winning an average of 0.24%. The difference is statistically significant at the 99% level.

  2. 2.

    The insiders for 1993 and 2000 remain the same; for 2007, Seck and Niasse count as insiders but Tanor Dieng is an outsider; and for 2012, only Sall remains an insider. Thus, there would be no outsiders with over 5% in 1993 and 2000; one of three in 2007, and three of four in 2012.

  3. 3.

    Insider candidates with under 5% would constitute 33% (2/6) in 1993, 0% (0/4) in 2000; 27% (3/11) in 2007; and 13% (1/8) in 2012.

  4. 4.

    Seck had spent his entire political career in the PDS, culminating in his Prime Ministership. Thus, in the 2007 elections, his opposition “relegated to second tier the classical opposition” of outsiders (Diop 2006: 119–120).

  5. 5.

    He announced, “maa waxoon, waxeet,” (“I take back what I said”), referencing prior promises not to run again.

  6. 6.

    Interview with Diattara, 4/22/12, Thiès.

  7. 7.

    Interview with Oumar Hassimou Dia, 5/3/12, Dakar. Interview with Babou Dieng, 5/11/12, Dakar.

  8. 8.

    Interview with Tall, 6/5/12, Dakar.

  9. 9.

    Interview with Dièye, 8/13/10, Saint-Louis.

  10. 10.

    Interview with Thiam, 8/7/10, Dakar.

  11. 11.

    After the PDS in France defected to Sall, authorities confiscated Sall’s passport on his return to Dakar. Sall was accused of laundering money, as was Abdoulaye Sall.

  12. 12.

    Both trials were criticized for flaws in upholding the rule of law. The UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention declared Karim Wade’s two-year-long detention arbitrary. The ECOWAS Court of Justice found that Sall was denied rights to counsel and due process, as well as subjected to arbitrary detention for several months based on parliamentary immunity.

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  1. American Bar Association Rule of Law Initiative, Washington, DC, USA

    Catherine Lena Kelly

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Kelly, C.L. (2020). Defeating Presidents from Within: Regime Insiders and Turnover in Senegal. In: Party Proliferation and Political Contestation in Africa. Contemporary African Political Economy. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19617-2_5

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