Skip to main content

Government and Nonprofit Personnel Forecasting

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting

Part of the book series: Palgrave Studies in Public Debt, Spending, and Revenue ((PDSR))

  • 444 Accesses

Abstract

Governments and nonprofits project the supply and demand of current and future personnel as well as personnel expenditures. Accurate personnel projections are critical to helping an organization strategically plan for personnel needs in relation to its mission. Accurate personnel expenditure forecasts are also critical to helping an organization budget for short- and long-term costs associated with personnel compensation. Despite this essential function of government and nonprofit strategic human resource management, there is little examination of it in the literature. Based on a literature review conducted in this chapter, only a few articles consider government and nonprofit personnel projections and forecasts. Many rely on surveys with small samples or are from decades ago. Further, there is almost no insight into the methodologies that are utilized for personnel projections and forecasts, limiting insight for practitioners looking for evidence-based recommendations. This chapter considers these limitations and makes a variety of recommendations to help pave the way for future research that can build the literature and inform practitioners.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 149.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • American Hospital Association. (2018). Fast facts on US hospitals. Retrieved from https://www.aha.org/statistics/2018-01-09-fast-facts-us-hospitals-2018.

  • Anderson, M. W. (2004). The metrics of workforce planning. Public Personnel Management, 33(4), 363–378.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arapis, T., Reitano, V., & Bruck, E. (2017). The fiscal savings behavior of Pennsylvania school districts through the great recession. Public Budgeting & Finance, 37(3), 47–70.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Armstrong, M., & Taylor, S. (2014). Armstrong’s handbook of human resource management practice (13th ed.). Philadelphia, PA: Kogan Page Ltd.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barrett, N., Fowles, J., Jones, P., & Reitano, V. (2019). Forecast bias and fiscal slack accumulation. The American Review of Public Administration, 49(5), 601–613.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berne, R., & Stiefel, L. (1993). Cutback budgeting: The long-term consequences. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 12(4), 664–684.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bretschneider, S. I., Straussman, J. J., & Mullins, D. (1988). Do revenue forecasts influence budget setting? A small group experiment. Policy Sciences, 21(4), 305–325.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, G. G., Weikart, L. A., & Williams, D. W. (2015). Calculating payroll. In Budget tools: Financial methods in the public sector (2nd ed., pp. Online). Los Angeles: SAGE.

    Google Scholar 

  • Choudhury, E. H. (2007). Workforce planning in small local governments. Review of Public Personnel Administration, 27(3), 264–280.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fishbein, J., & Vehaun, D. (2009). Managing the personnel budgeting process. Government Finance Review, 67–75. Retrieved from http://www.gfoa.org/sites/default/files/GFR_AUG_09_67.pdf.

  • Frank, H. A., & Zhao, Y. (2009). Determinants of local government revenue forecasting practice: Empirical evidence from Florida. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 21(1), 17–35.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goodman, D., French, P. E., & Battaglio, R. P., Jr. (2015). Determinants of local government workforce planning. The American Review of Public Administration, 45(2), 135–152.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guidestar. (2015). Nine things you might not know about non-profits. Williamsburg, VA: Guidestar.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hartman, W. T. (1998). School district budgeting. Lanham: Scarecrow Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hulpke, J. F., Watne, D. A., & Waldo, D. (1976). Budgeting behavior: If, when, and how selected school districts hide money. Public Administration Review, 36, 667–674.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacobson, W. S. (2010). Preparing for tomorrow: A case study of workforce planning in North Carolina municipal governments. Public Personnel Management, 39(4), 353–377.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacobson, W. S., & Sowa, J. E. (2016). Municipal human resource management: Challenges and innovative practices in turbulent times. State and Local Government Review, 48(2), 121–131.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kavanagh, S. C., & Williams, D. W. (2016). Informed decision-making through forecasting: A practitioner’s gide to government revenue analysis. Chicago: Government Finance Officers Association.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kong, D. (2007). Local government revenue forecasting: The California county experience. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 19(2), 178–199.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee, T. M., & Plummer, E. (2007). Budget adjustments in response to spending variances: Evidence of ratcheting of local government expenditures. Journal of Management Accounting Research, 19, 137–167.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maynard, A. (2006). Medical workforce planning: Some forecasting challenges. Australian Economic Review, 39(3), 323–329.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McNichol, E. (2012). Some basic facts on state and local government workers. Retrieved from https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/2-24-11sfp.pdf.

  • Melchor, O. H. (2013). The government workforce of the future: Innovation in strategic workforce planning in OECD countries. OECD Working Papers on Public Governance (21), https://doi.org/10.1787/5k487727gwvb-en.

  • Miranda, R., Kavanagh, S., & Roque, R. (2002). Technology needs assessment: Evaluating the business case for ERP and financial management systems. Chicago: Government Finance Officers Association.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Center for Education Statistics. (2018). Public school expenditures. Washington, DC. Retrieved from https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_cmb.asp.

  • Nielsen, G. L., & Young, A. R. (1973). Manpower planning: A Markov chain application. Public Personnel Management, 2(2), 133–144.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pynes, J. E. (2004). The implementation of workforce and succession planning in the public sector. Public Personnel Management, 33(4), 389–404.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reddick, C. G. (2006). Assessing local government revenue forecasting techniques. International Journal of Public Administration 27(8–9), 597–614.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reitano, V. (2017). Investing in collections software to allow for monthly property tax payments. Working Paper: WP17VR1. Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Retrieved from https://www.lincolninst.edu/sites/default/files/sources/events/reitano_wp17vr1.pdf.

  • Reitano, V. (2018). An open systems model of local government forecasting. The American Review of Public Administration, 48(5), 476–489.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roque, R. (2010). Optimizing ERP in your organization. Government Finance Review, 46–50. Retrieved from www.gfoa.org/sites/default/files/GFR_AUG_10_46.pdf.

  • Schroeder, L. (1980). Probabilistic projections of public employment and expenditures. Public Finance Quarterly, 8(3), 259–276.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ványolós, I. (2011). The impact of state-imposed fund balance limits on school districts: Evidence from New York state. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 23(2), 166–187.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wong, J. D. (1995). Local government revenue forecasting: Using regression and econometric revenue forecasting in a medium-sized city. Journal of Public Budgeting and Financial Management, 7, 315–335.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Vincent Reitano .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2019 The Author(s)

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Reitano, V. (2019). Government and Nonprofit Personnel Forecasting. In: Williams, D., Calabrese, T. (eds) The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting. Palgrave Studies in Public Debt, Spending, and Revenue. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-18195-6_18

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-18195-6_18

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-18194-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-18195-6

  • eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics