Is Disruption Taking Apart the Carmakers’ World?

Abstract

The word disruption, in its original sense, expresses the concept that even successful companies can fail, despite continuing to do what they did before well. In the digital era, it is often used both when a company is well-managed but fails, and when it fails because it is badly managed. In the car industry potential disruption is generated by the combined effect of more digital technologies, platforms (Uber, Lyft, Didi), electromobility (Tesla), and autonomous driving (Apple and Google). Disruptors in automotive industry are big data and machine intelligence companies, at their core; they use direct-to-consumer models; they are venture-backed startups; they make decisions with incomplete data and uncertainty; they hire the best; they are organised in small teams; and they take risks and break rules. Choosing the most appropriate moment to enter the market or drastically change strategies is more important than ever in a highly changing environment. The history of technological innovation is full of potential disruptors that could offer superior performance to rivals, but which failed to identify the right moment to enter the market. Finally, how can disruption be managed? The first step is to predict the impact of a new disruptive business model on consumer behaviour. The second involves estimating how many consumers could move to the new product. In the automotive industry, how many consumers would adopt a level 4 or level 5 driverless car? The third step is to extend the analysis of the impact of a disruptive business model to other related sectors.