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Predicting Runoff, Sediment and Management Scenarios for Reducing Soil Erosion in Data Scarce Regions, Blue Nile Basin

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Advances of Science and Technology (ICAST 2018)

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Abstract

This study presents modeling runoff and sediment with management scenarios for watershed management and resource erosion in Koga watershed using AnnAGNPS model. Calibration of the model was carried from 1988–2001 and validation from 2002–2007. The result of sensitivity analysis indicated that the CN was the most sensitive parameter to runoff and peak runoff rate whereas LS and K-factor were for sediment yield following RF, and these parameters were subjected to calibration. For model calibration, R2 of 0.69, 0.35, 0.55; NSE of 0.69, −0.38, 0.55; RSR of 0.54, 1.14, 0.67; and PBIAS of 0.07%, −80.56% and 4.09% were obtained for surface runoff, peak runoff rate, and sediment load, respectively. Similarly validation results indicated an R2 of 0.76, 0.54, 0.62; NSE of 0.76, 0.38, 0.62; RSR of 0.43, 0.71, 0.56, and PBIAS of 2.31%, −36.58% and 5.68% for surface runoff, peak runoff rate, and sediment load, respectively. Where the model efficiency was rated at the range of fair to excellent for three of the outputs of the model for both calibration and validation period. Only 21.5% of the area was able to generate the 78.8% of total soil erosion, with higher than tolerable limit. Hence converting of 21.5% of highest eroding cropland cells either to forest or grassland would reduce soil erosion, sediment yield and load significantly. Ultimately it would help to reduce the sedimentation in Koga dam which could result in reduction of storage capacity.

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Acknowledgment

We would like to than Bahir Dar University, Blue Nile Water Institute for funding this research project. In addition our thanks also extended to the National Meteorological agency (NMA) and Ministry of Water Irrigation and Electricity of Ethiopia for providing climatic and hydrological data respectively.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Amhara Design Supervision Works Enterprise, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

    Berhanu M. Mekuria

  2. Faculty of Civil and Water Resources Engineering, Bahir Dar Institute of Technology, Bahir Dar University, P.O. Box 26, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

    Mamaru A. Moges

  3. Blue Nile Water Institute, Watershed Hydrology Directorate, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

    Mamaru A. Moges

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  1. Berhanu M. Mekuria
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Correspondence to Mamaru A. Moges .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Civil and Water Resources Engineering, Bahir Dar Institute of Technology, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

    Fasikaw Atanaw Zimale

  2. Faculty of Civil and Water Resources Engineering, Bahir Dar Institute of Technology, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

    Temesgen Enku Nigussie

  3. Faculty of Chemical and Food Engineering, Bahir Dar Institute of Technology, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

    Solomon Workneh Fanta

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Mekuria, B.M., Moges, M.A. (2019). Predicting Runoff, Sediment and Management Scenarios for Reducing Soil Erosion in Data Scarce Regions, Blue Nile Basin. In: Zimale, F., Enku Nigussie, T., Fanta, S. (eds) Advances of Science and Technology. ICAST 2018. Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, vol 274. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15357-1_2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15357-1_2

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