Abstract
This chapter examines who won the campaigns in NY-19, NY-22, and NY-24 and interprets the results.
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Notes
- 1.
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Jay Newton-Small, “Vulnerable Democrats ran away from Obama,” October 14, 2014, http://time.com/3507165/alison-grimes-barack-obama-midterm-elections/
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David Farenthold, “GOP dominates midterms, take control of Senate,” The Washington Post, November 5, 2014, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/2014/11/05/4156eaf0-5330-11e4-892e-602188e70e9c_story.html?utm_term=.a722c9e22bad
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Jason Horowitz, “Rep. Michael Grimm pleads guilty, but says he won’t resign,” The New York Times¸ December 23, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/24/nyregion/rep-michael-grimm-pleads-guilty-to-tax-fraud.html?_r=0
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“How unpopular is Donald Trump?” Five Thirty Eight, November 6, 2018, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
- 6.
Camila Domonoske, “A Boatload of Ballots; Midterm Voter Turnout Hit 50 year High,” NPR, November 8, 2018, https://www.npr.org/2018/11/08/665197690/a-boatload-of-ballots-midterm-voter-turnout-hit-50-year-high
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Zach Williams and Rebecca Lewis, “New York House general election results,” City and State NY, November 6, 2018, https://cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/new-york-congress-general-election-results-2018.html
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Jason Horowitz, “Rep. Michael Grimm pleads guilty, but says he won’t resign,” The New York Times¸ December 23, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/24/nyregion/rep-michael-grimm-pleads-guilty-to-tax-fraud.html?_r=0
- 9.
Alexander Burns, “Donavan, Staten Island Prosecutor, Wins Congressional seat Grimm held,” The New York Times, May 5, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/06/nyregion/daniel-donovan-elected-to-congress-from-new-york.html
- 10.
Lisa Foderaro, “Democrats Hope to Beat New York City’s Only G.O.P. Congressman, It Won’t Be Easy,” The New York Times, September 27, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/27/nyregion/dan-donovan-staten-island-trump-max-rose.html
- 11.
Lisa Foderaro, “Democrats Hope to Beat New York City’s Only G.O.P. Congressman, It Won’t Be Easy,” The New York Times, September 27, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/27/nyregion/dan-donovan-staten-island-trump-max-rose.html
- 12.
Lisa Foderaro, “Democrats Hope to Beat New York City’s Only G.O.P. Congressman, It Won’t Be Easy,” The New York Times, September 27, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/27/nyregion/dan-donovan-staten-island-trump-max-rose.html
- 13.
Zach Williams and Rebecca Lewis, “New York House general election results,” City and State NY, November 6, 2018, https://cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/new-york-congress-general-election-results-2018.html
- 14.
Chris Baker, “It’s over. Anthony Brindisi defeats Tenney in 22nd Congressional Race,” Syracuse.com, November 20, 2018, https://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/11/its_over_brindisi_defeats_tenney_in_22nd_congressional_race.html
- 15.
Dispatch Staff, “After 3 week, NY-22 race is settled,” Oneida Daily Dispatch, November 28, 2018, https://www.oneidadispatch.com/news/after-three-weeks-ny%2D%2Drace-is-settled/article_8fbbb202-f354-11e8-b068-b7b7cc869674.html
- 16.
Natasha Vaughn, “Five things to know about Anthony Brindisi’s post-election plans,” Binghamton Press & Sun Bulletin, December 6, 2018, https://www.pressconnects.com/story/news/local/2018/12/06/anthony-brindisi-congress-agenda-ny-22-district/2192369002/
- 17.
Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien, “Congressional Election Forecasting: Structure-X Models for 2014,” PS: Political Science and Politics, 47.4 (October 2014): 782.
- 18.
Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien, “Congressional Election Forecasting: Structure-X Models for 2014,” PS: Political Science and Politics, 47.4 (October 2014): 782.
- 19.
Joseph Bafumi, Robert Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, “Balancing, Generic Polls and Midterm Congressional Elections,” The Journal of Politics, 72.3 (July 2010): 705–706.
- 20.
Jeffrey Jones, “Midterm Seat Loss Averages 37 for Unpopular Presidents,” Gallup, September 12, 2018. https://news.gallup.com/poll/242093/midterm-seat-loss-averages-unpopular-presidents.aspx
- 21.
Joseph Bafumi, Robert Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, “Balancing, Generic Polls and Midterm Congressional Elections,” The Journal of Politics, 72.3 (July 2010): 706.
- 22.
Rachel Bitecofer, “Signs, Signs, Everywhere Are Signs: Why Democrats Will Win Big in the 2018 Midterms,” Wason Center Blog, September 26, 2018, http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/signs-signs-everywhere-are-signs-why-democrats-will-win-big-in-the-2018-midterms/
- 23.
“How Popular is Donald Trump?” Five Thirty Eight, November 8, 2018, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo
- 24.
Matthew Ylegias. “Donald Trump, the resistance, the limits of normcore politics.” Vox. July 3, 2018. https://www.vox.com/2018/7/3/17379766/trump-norms-democracy
- 25.
Will Kane. “White house resistance to Trump unlike anything before; Berkley politics expert argues.” Berkley News. September 6, 2018. http://news.berkeley.edu/2018/09/06/white-house-resistance-to-trump-is-unlike-anything-before-berkeley-politics-expert-argues/
- 26.
Phillip Bump, “Trump has embraced campaign rallies,” The Washington Post, October 10, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/10/trump-has-embraced-campaign-rallies-golf-remains-his-true-love/?utm_term=.9ae44240257f
- 27.
David Jackson, “Trump hones campaign themes: Kavanaugh, impeachment, nicknames,” USA Today, October 22, 2018, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/17/donald-trump-midterm-themes-kavanaugh-impeachment-nicknames/1590500002/
- 28.
Chris Cadelago, “Trump’s midterm pitch: vote for me,” Politico, October 10, 2018, https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/10/trump-midterm-pitch-886196
- 29.
Amina Dunn, John Laloggia, and Carroll Doherty, “In midterm voting decisions, policy took back seat to partisanship,” Pew Research Center, November 29, 2018, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/29/in-midterm-voting-decisions-policies-took-a-back-seat-to-partisanship/
- 30.
Luke Perry, “NY-22 Minute: Tenney on Trump – ‘Most Successful Presidency in Modern History,’” Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research, May 23, 2018, https://www.ucpublicaffairs.com/home/2018/5/23/2ug497y7z5cbqvc6sg1eix3mnmzzi0
- 31.
- 32.
Allison Graves, “Viral Image about Florida Baseless,” Politifact, August 9, 2016, https://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2016/aug/09/viral-image/viral-image-about-voter-fraud-completely-baseless/
- 33.
Cassie Owens, “Internet: Philly Rigged the 2012 Election. Experts: Still No,” Politifact, August 12, 2016, https://www.politifact.com/pennsylvania/statements/2016/aug/12/viral-image/internet-philly-rigged-2012-presidential-election-/
- 34.
Nadia Pflaum, “Viral post alleges voter fraud in Wood County, OH,” Politifact, August 16, 2016, https://www.politifact.com/ohio/statements/2016/aug/16/viral-image/viral-post-alleges-voter-fraud-wood-county-ohio/
- 35.
C. Eugene Emery, “Viral post claiming voter fraud in 2012 election errs on photo id numbers,” Politifact, August 9, 2016, https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/aug/09/viral-image/viral-post-claiming-voter-fraud-2012-election-errs/.
- 36.
Linda Qui, “Trump’s baseless claims about the election being ‘rigged,’” Politifact, August 15, 2016, https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/aug/15/donald-trump/donald-trumps-baseless-claims-about-election-being/
- 37.
Amy Sherman, “Following Trump voter fraud allegations, claim that 5.7 million noncitizens voted in wrong,” Politifact, June 22, 2017, https://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2017/jun/22/ainsley-earhardt/following-trump-voter-fraud-allegations-claim-57-m/
- 38.
Luke Perry, “NY-22 Minute: Tenney Believes ‘Deep State’ Responsible for Ben Carson’s Office Furniture,” Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research, March 21, 2018, https://www.ucpublicaffairs.com/home/2018/3/21/ny-22-minute-tenney-believes-deep-state-responsible-for-ben-carsons-office-furniture-by-luke-perry
- 39.
Jon Greenberg, “Trump says collusion is not a crime. That’s not right.” Politifact, July 31, 2018, https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2018/jul/31/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-collusion-no-crime-right/
- 40.
“Ex-Trump Attorney Michael Cohen Pleads Guilty to Campaign Finance Violations,” CBS News, August 21, 2018, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/michael-cohen-plea-deal-details-today-2018-08-21/
- 41.
Luke Perry, “NY-22 Minute: Tenney Joins 10 Republicans Calling for Investigation of Comey, Clinton, & More,” Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research, April 18, 2018, https://www.ucpublicaffairs.com/home/2018/4/18/ny-22-minute-tenney-joins-10-republicans-calling-for-investigation-of-comey-clinton-more-by-luke-perry
- 42.
Andrew Donavan, “President Trump Tweets: ‘Vote Claudia!’ in New York’s 22nd District,” Local SYR.com , November 5, 2018, https://www.localsyr.com/news/local-news/president-trump-tweets-vote-claudia-in-new-york-s-22nd-district/1574009179
- 43.
Luke Perry, “Comparing John Katko (NY-24) and Claudia Tenney (NY-22): Trump Endorsement,” Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research, August 27, 2018, https://www.ucpublicaffairs.com/home/2018/8/27/john-katko-
- 44.
Mark Weiner, “Rep. John Katko on Mueller Investigation: ‘It’s not a witch hunt,” Syracuse.com, August 22, 2018, https://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/08/rep_john_katko_on_mueller_investigation_its_not_a_witch_hunt.html
- 45.
This data was retrieved from Tracking Congress in the Age of Trump by Five Thirty Eight available at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/house/
- 46.
Mark Weiner, “Rep. John Katko: Trump follower or independent voice? A look at 11 key votes,” Syracuse.com, July 31, 2018, https://www.syracuse.com/expo/news/erry-2018/07/aed9a4ab9f1853/rep-john-katko-trump-follower.html
- 47.
Luke Perry, “Comparing John Katko (NY-24) and Claudia Tenney (NY-22): Trump Endorsement,” Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research, August 27, 2018, https://www.ucpublicaffairs.com/home/2018/8/27/john-katko-
- 48.
Luke Perry, “John Katko Talks Congress, Campaign, Sessions, and Trump,” Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research, September 12, 2018, https://www.ucpublicaffairs.com/home/2018/9/10/john-katko-ny-24-talks-congress-campaign-sessions-trump-with-luke-perry
- 49.
William Kemple, “Rep. Faso ‘Disappointed’ by Trump’s response to Russia interference in US matters,” Daily Freemen, March 26, 2018, https://www.dailyfreeman.com/news/rep-faso-disappointed-by-trump-s-response-to-russian-interference/article_6a28f44e-4d98-5dc5-9cc5-fd42b24a898a.html
- 50.
“Faso criticizes Trump’s unwillingness to blame Putin for election meddling” Hudson Valley One, July 16, 2018, https://hudsonvalleyone.com/2018/07/16/faso-criticizes-trumps-unwillingness-to-blame-putin-for-election-meddling/
- 51.
Nina Schutzman, “John Faso endorsed by President Trump in 19th District Race,” Poughkeepsie Journal, October 23, 2018, https://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/story/news/local/2018/10/23/john-faso-endorsed-president-trump-19th-district-race/1739680002/
- 52.
Jeff Mason and Roberta Rampton, “Defiant Trump blames media, fellow Republicans for House lost,” Reuters, November 7, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-press/defiant-trump-blames-media-fellow-republicans-for-house-losses-idUSKCN1NC2ND
- 53.
John Faso made these comments in an interview conducted by Bloomberg available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-11-13/rep-faso-says-he-wouldn-t-have-won-by-embracing-trump-video
- 54.
John Faso made these comments in an interview conducted by Bloomberg available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-11-13/rep-faso-says-he-wouldn-t-have-won-by-embracing-trump-video
- 55.
Amanda Purcell, “Faso reflects on what might have been,” Hudson Valley 360, December 6, 2018, https://www.hudsonvalley360.com/article/faso-reflects-what-might-have-been
- 56.
Amanda Purcell, “Faso reflects on what might have been,” Hudson Valley 360, December 6, 2018, https://www.hudsonvalley360.com/article/faso-reflects-what-might-have-been
- 57.
Dan Freedman, “Tale of two NY Republicans: a winner and loser,” Times Union, November 29, 2018. https://www.timesunion.com/7day-state/article/Tale-of-two-N-Y-Republicans-A-winner-and-a-loser-13432643.php
- 58.
Patrick Lynch, “Midterm Elections and Economic Fluctuations: The Response of Voters Over Time,” Legislative Studies Quarterly, 27.2 (May 2002): 269–270.
- 59.
Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien, “Congressional Election Forecasting: Structure-X Models for 2014,” PS: Political Science and Politics, 47.4 (October 2014): 782.
- 60.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, “U.S. Economy at a Glance,” Accessed December 15, 2018, https://www.bea.gov/news/glance
- 61.
Erik Wasson and Sho Chandra, “‘Trump Effect’ Overpowers Booming Economy Ahead of Midterms,” Bloomberg, October 19, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-19/-trump-effect-overpowers-booming-economy-as-driver-in-midterms
- 62.
Paul Davidson and Adam Shell, “Trade wars, taxes, and immigration, among top economic issues for voters in 2018,” USA Today, November 5, 2018, https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/11/05/midterm-elections-economy/1856916002/
- 63.
Paul Davidson and Adam Shell, “Trade wars, taxes, and immigration, among top economic issues for voters in 2018,” USA Today, November 5, 2018, https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/11/05/midterm-elections-economy/1856916002/
- 64.
Josh Boak, “Why aren’t many Americans benefitting from a robust economy?” USA Today, June 15, 2018, https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2018/06/15/why-many-americans-arent-benefiting-robust-us-economy/705655002/
- 65.
Josh Boak, “Why aren’t many Americans benefitting from a robust economy?” USA Today, June 15, 2018, https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2018/06/15/why-many-americans-arent-benefiting-robust-us-economy/705655002/
- 66.
“President Trump Job Approval- The Economy,” Real Clear Politics, accessed December 15, 2018, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval_economy-6182.html#polls
- 67.
Aimee Picchi, “Is Trump Right that it’s the best economy and jobs EVER?” CBS News, June 5, 2018, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-economy-jobs-best-ever-tweet-today-fact-check-2018-06-04/
- 68.
Erik Wasson and Sho Chandra, “‘Trump Effect’ Overpowers Booming Economy Ahead of Midterms,” Bloomberg, October 19, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-19/-trump-effect-overpowers-booming-economy-as-driver-in-midterms
- 69.
Byron York, “Of course Trump is talking about the economy. Who says he’s not?” Washington Examiner, November 5, 2018, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/of-course-trump-is-talking-about-the-economy-who-says-hes-not
- 70.
Robert Harding, “Five reasons why Rep. John Katko won reelection in House race against Dana Balter,” The Citizen, November 8, 2018, https://auburnpub.com/blogs/eye_on_ny/five-reasons-why-rep-john-katko-won-re-election-in/article_b81ae282-e25a-11e8-bcbe-ab3d15ea16b2.html
- 71.
Robert Harding, “Five reasons why Rep. John Katko won reelection in House race against Dana Balter,” The Citizen, November 8, 2018, https://auburnpub.com/blogs/eye_on_ny/five-reasons-why-rep-john-katko-won-re-election-in/article_b81ae282-e25a-11e8-bcbe-ab3d15ea16b2.html
- 72.
Lisa Foderaro, National Democrats Wade, Uninvited, Into New York House Race, The New York Times, May 30, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/30/nyregion/perez-williams-katko-balter-syracuse-house-election.html
- 73.
Lisa Foderaro, National Democrats Wade, Uninvited, Into New York House Race, The New York Times, May 30, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/30/nyregion/perez-williams-katko-balter-syracuse-house-election.html
- 74.
Mark Weiner, “Why were NY-24 polls so off?” Syracuse.com, June 28, 2018, https://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/06/why_was_ny-24_poll_so_off_dana_balter_finished_strong_pollster_says.html
- 75.
Robert Harding, “Dana Balter takes money lead over GOP Rep. Katko in final weeks of election,” Auburnpub.com , October 26, 2018, https://auburnpub.com/blogs/eye_on_ny/democrat-balter-takes-money-lead-over-gop-rep-katko-in/article_afdff7ac-d89f-11e8-bbba-13df4f9aa562.html
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Robert Harding, “Eye on NY: Dana Balter reflects on ‘phenomenal’ campaign for Congress,” Auburnpub.com , November 26, 2018, https://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/06/why_was_ny-24_poll_so_off_dana_balter_finished_strong_pollster_says.html
- 77.
Bridget Bowman, “Meet the Challengers Who Outraised House Incumbents,” Roll Call, October 18, 2017, https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/meet-challengers-outraised-house-incumbents
- 78.
Andrew Solender, “Out-of-district donations dominate congressional fundraising,” City and State NY, September 18, 2018, https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/new-york-congressional-fundraising-out-of-district-donations.html
- 79.
Samantha Madison, “No reimbursement coming for Trump’s Utica visit,” Observer Dispatch, September 12, 2018, https://www.uticaod.com/news/20180912/no-reimbursement-coming-for-trumps-utica-visit
- 80.
Luke Perry, “NY-22 Minute: Tenney States Many Murderers Are Democrats,” Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research, February 21, 2018, https://www.ucpublicaffairs.com/home/2018/2/21/ny-22-minute-tenney-states-many-mass-murderers-are-democrats-by-luke-perry
- 81.
Luke Perry, “NY-22 Minute: Tenney States Many Murderers Are Democrats,” Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research, February 21, 2018, https://www.ucpublicaffairs.com/home/2018/2/21/ny-22-minute-tenney-states-many-mass-murderers-are-democrats-by-luke-perry
- 82.
Luke Perry, “Sockpuppet Social,” Stateline NY, October 5, 2018, https://statelineny.atavist.com/sockpuppet-social?preview
- 83.
Andrew Solender, “John Faso has one problem, and it’s Antonio Delgado,” Chronogram, November 1, 2018, https://www.chronogram.com/hudsonvalley/john-faso-has-one-problem-and-its-antonio-delgado/Content?oid=6671617
- 84.
Andrew Solender, “John Faso has one problem, and it’s Antonio Delgado,” Chronogram, November 1, 2018, https://www.chronogram.com/hudsonvalley/john-faso-has-one-problem-and-its-antonio-delgado/Content?oid=6671617
- 85.
Andrew Solender, “John Faso has one problem, and it’s Antonio Delgado,” Chronogram, November 1, 2018, https://www.chronogram.com/hudsonvalley/john-faso-has-one-problem-and-its-antonio-delgado/Content?oid=6671617
- 86.
Chris McKenna, “Delgado Leads NY-19 Democrats in Fundraising,” Times Herald Record, January 13, 2018, https://www.recordonline.com/news/20180113/fray-delgado-leads-ny19-democrats-in-4th-quarter-fundraising
- 87.
Jesse Smith, “In congressional race, Delgado rakes in more than Faso, but campaigns very close in cash-on-hand,” Hudson Valley One, October 19, 2018, https://hudsonvalleyone.com/2018/10/19/in-congressional-race-delgado-rakes-in-more-than-faso-but-campaigns-very-close-in-cash-on-hand/
- 88.
Andrew Solender, “Out-of-district donations dominate congressional fundraising,” City and State NY, September 18, 2018, https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/new-york-congressional-fundraising-out-of-district-donations.html
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- 90.
This was retrieved from Indivisible’s website at https://indivisible.org/about
- 91.
This was retrieved from Indivisible’s website at https://indivisible.org/about
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Lara Putnam and Theda Skocpol, “Middle America Reboots Democracy,” Democracy, February 20, 2018, https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/middle-america-reboots-democracy/
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Perry, L. (2019). Who Won and Why. In: Donald Trump and the 2018 Midterm Battle for Central New York. Palgrave Studies in US Elections. Palgrave Pivot, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-13023-7_4
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