Abstract
In the 21st century, a significant increase in the duration of the navigation period on the Northern Sea Route is expected. This is due to the stronger warming of the climate in the Arctic. Current climate models are characterized by considerable uncertainty in the sensitivity of the characteristics of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean to current climate changes. In order to take into account, the uncertainty of the results of numerical calculations for models, together with the uncertainty of the observational data, Bayesian analysis methods are used. This paper analyzes the changes in the duration of the navigation period (NPD) on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model ensemble under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) anthropogenic scenarios using Bayesian statistics. For various scenarios of anthropogenic impact, it was found that the expected duration of the navigation period on the Northern Sea Route will be 2–3 months by the middle of the XXI century and 3–6 months by its end.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsReferences
Mokhov, I.I.: Contemporary climate changes in the Arctic. Herald Russ. Acad. Sci. 85(3), 265–271 (2015)
Mokhov, I.I., Khon, V.Ch.: The duration of the navigation period and changes for the Northern Sea Route: model estimates. Arct. Ecol. Econ. 2(18), 88–95 (2015)
Mokhov, I.I., Khon, V.Ch., Prokof’eva, M.A.: New model estimates of changes in the duration of the navigation period for the Northern Sea Route in the 21st century. Dokl. Earth Sci. 468(2), 641–645 (2016)
Khon, V.C., Mokhov, I.I., Semenov, V.A.: Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations. Environ. Res. Lett. 12(2), 024010 (2017)
Mokhov, I.I.: Assessment of the ability of contemporary climate models to assess adequately the risk of possible regional anomalies and trends. Dokl. Earth Sci. 479(2), 482–485 (2018)
Eliseev, A.V., Semenov, V.A.: Arctic climate changes in the 21st century: ensemble model estimates accounting for realism in present-day climate simulation. Dokl. Earth Sci. 471(1), 1183–1187 (2016)
Hoeting, J.A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A.E., et al.: Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial. Stat. Sci. 14(4), 382–417 (1999)
Kibanova, O.V., Eliseev, A.V., Mokhov, I.I., Khon, V.C.: Variations in the duration of the navigation period along the Northern Sea Route in the 21st century based on simulations with an ensemble of climatic models: Bayesian estimates. Dokl. Earth Sci. 481(1), 907–911 (2018)
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (Agreement no. 14.616.21.0082) using the results of the projects of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and Programs of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Grants 17-05-01097, 18-05-60111). The development of the model weighting technics was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant 18-47-06203).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Kibanova, O.V., Eliseev, A.V., Mokhov, I.I., Khon, V.C. (2019). Bayes Estimates of Variations of the Duration of the Navigation Period Along the Northern Sea Route in the XXI Century from Simulations with Ensemble of Climate Models. In: Karev, V., Klimov, D., Pokazeev, K. (eds) Physical and Mathematical Modeling of Earth and Environment Processes (2018). Springer Proceedings in Earth and Environmental Sciences. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11533-3_45
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11533-3_45
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-11532-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-11533-3
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)