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The Relationship Between Bitcoin Trading Volume, Volatility, and Returns: A Study of Four Seasons

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Information Systems (EMCIS 2018)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing ((LNBIP,volume 341))

Abstract

We study the relationship between Bitcoin trading volume, volatility, and returns using financial data for the period July 2010–November 2017. When we compare the raw annualized volatility of the Bitcoin exchange rate against common currencies, we observe that Bitcoin’s is higher. However, when the volume of Bitcoin transactions is considered, the volatility of the Bitcoin stabilizes significantly. Then we divide our sample into four distinct time periods, defined by three important events, namely, the loss of public confidence in the banking system in 2013, the MtGox Bitcoin Exchange hack in early 2014, and the introduction of the Bitcoin legislation in Japan in April 2017. Using asymmetric EGARCH models with the lag of the natural logarithm of the volume of the Bitcoin both as a regressor in the mean equation as well as in the specification of the conditional variance as multiplicative heteroskedasticity we show that volume and volatility are related after 2013, and volume and returns are related before the MtGox hack, positively and significantly. Further, during the euphoric period between the beginning of 2013 and up to the MtGox hack an unexpected rise in Bitcoin returns increases Bitcoin volatility more than an unexpected, equally sized decrease (asymmetry).

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Notes

  1. 1.

    During the first quarter of 2014 the exchange rate of Bitcoin had decreased to $298.73 from $1,128.47 since November 2013. Adverse events such as the closing of the Mount Gox Exchange and the negative outlook from the Chinese government have all played a role in damaging the performance of Bitcoin.

  2. 2.

    The data for the Bitcoin exchange rate as well as the exchange rate of all other currencies was used from the Federal Reserve, www.quandl.com and www.oanda.com. Volume data is available from the 14th of September 2011.

  3. 3.

    Assuming that there are 252 trading days in the year.

  4. 4.

    www.cryptocoinsnews.com.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus

    Angelika Kokkinaki, Svetlana Sapuric & Ifigenia Georgiou

Authors
  1. Angelika Kokkinaki
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  2. Svetlana Sapuric
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  3. Ifigenia Georgiou
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Correspondence to Angelika Kokkinaki .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus

    Marinos Themistocleous

  2. University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal

    Paulo Rupino da Cunha

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Kokkinaki, A., Sapuric, S., Georgiou, I. (2019). The Relationship Between Bitcoin Trading Volume, Volatility, and Returns: A Study of Four Seasons. In: Themistocleous, M., Rupino da Cunha, P. (eds) Information Systems. EMCIS 2018. Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, vol 341. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11395-7_1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11395-7_1

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-11394-0

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-11395-7

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