Energy and Emission Modelling for Climate Change Mitigation from Road Transportation in the Middle East: A Case Study from Lebanon
Road transportation worldwide is undergoing a rapid transition to more sustainable alternative fuel vehicle technologies as an effective means of dealing with climate change and related challenges. This chapter provides an assessment framework and a case study of the potential savings in energy use and CO2 emissions from alternative fuel vehicle technologies compared to existing conventional vehicles, including the dynamic modelling of different mitigation strategies at the fleet level. The case study is done in an urban area of Lebanon’s Greater Beirut Area which has one of the most unsustainable road transport systems in the region. The framework highlights the need to account for real-world driving and weather conditions since poor roads, congested traffic, and extreme weather conditions common in the developing countries of the Middle East can reduce the benefits of these vehicles. Results show that introducing micro-hybrid vehicles to make up 35% of the fleet in 2040 reduces energy use and emissions by 19% compared to the business-as-usual scenario, thereby stabilizing growth trends in 2040 as compared to 2010 figures. The addition of 10% hybrid electric vehicles by 2040 to the first strategy leads to 11% additional savings compared to 2010. This shows the need to incentivize cleaner fuel vehicles and to systematically explore additional strategies for reducing energy consumption and emissions in road transportation.
KeywordsReal driving conditions Alternative fuel vehicles Energy consumption GHG emissions Cost analysis Developing countries Road passenger transport System dynamics Mitigation strategies
- André, M. (1998). Building-up of representative driving cycles for vehicle pollutant emission measurements. INSA Lyon.Google Scholar
- CDR (2017). Environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) for the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system between Tabarja and Beirut and feeders buses services. Beirut.Google Scholar
- Fong, W. K., Matsumoto, H., & Lun, Y. F. (2009). Application of system dynamics model as decision making tool in urban planning process toward stabilizing carbon dioxide emissions from cities. Building and Environment, 44, 1528–1537. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2008.07.010.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Haddad, M., Mansour, C., Stephan, J., (2015). Unsustainability in emergent systems: A case study of road transport in the greater Beirut area. In 2015 International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management (IEOM). (pp. 1–10). Dubai: IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/IEOM.2015.7093899.
- Haddad, M. G., Mansour, C. J., & Afif, C. (2017). Future trends and mitigation options for energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in a developing country of the Middle East Region: A case study of Lebanon’s road transport sector. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 23, 263–276. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-017-9579-x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Kahn Ribeiro, S., Kobayashi, S., Beuthe, M., Gasca, J., Greene, D., Lee, D. S., Muromachi, Y., Newton, P.J., Plotkin, S., Sperling, D., Wit, R., Zhou, P. J. (2007). Transport and its infrastructure. In Transport and its infrastructure. In Climate change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. (pp. 324–386). https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.
- Kruse, R. E., & Huls, T. A. (1973). Development of the Federal Urban Driving Schedule. In SAE Technical Paper. SAE International. https://doi.org/10.4271/730553.
- Mansour, C. J., & Haddad, M. G. (2017). Well-to-wheel assessment for informing transition strategies to low-carbon fuel-vehicles in developing countries dependent on fuel imports: A case-study of road transport in Lebanon. Energy Policy, 107, 167–181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.04.031.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Mansour, C., Zgheib, E., & Saba, S. (2011). Evaluating impact of electrified vehicles on fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions reduction in Lebanese driving conditions using onboard GPS survey. In Energy Procedia (pp. 261–276). Beirut: Elsevier B.V. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2011.05.030.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Mansour, C., Bou Nader, W., Breque, F., Haddad, M., & Nemer, M. (2018a). Assessing additional fuel consumption from cabin thermal comfort and auxiliary needs on the worldwide harmonized light vehicles test cycle. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 62, 139–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2018.02.012.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Mansour, C., Haddad, M., & Zgheib, E. (2018b). Assessing consumption, emissions and costs of electrified vehicles under real driving conditions in a developing country with an inadequate road transport system. Transportation Research Part D, 63, 498–513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2018.06.012.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- MOE (2015). Lebanon’s intended nationally determined contribution under the United Nations framework convention on climate change. Beirut, Lebanon.Google Scholar
- MOE/UNDP/ECODIT (2011). State & Trends of the Lebanese Environment 353.Google Scholar
- MOE/UNDP/GEF (2015). National greenhouse gas inventory report and mitigation analysis for the transport sector in Lebanon. Beirut, Lebanon.Google Scholar
- MOE/UNDP/GEF (2016). Lebanon’s Third National Communication to the UNFCCC. Beirut, Lebanon.Google Scholar
- MOE/URC/GEF (2012). Lebanon technology needs assessment report for climate change. Beirut, Lebanon.Google Scholar
- OECD/IEA (2016). World energy statistics 2016. Paris, France. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264263079-en.
- Omran, M., Ojeil, J., Fawaz, Y. (2015). Economic impacts of adopting a sustainable transport system in Beirut (No. 28), Sustainable Transport Series. Beirut.Google Scholar
- Pasaoglu, G., Harrison, G., Jones, L., Hill, A., Beaudet, A., & Thiel, C. (2016). A system dynamics based market agent model simulating future powertrain technology transition: Scenarios in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 104, 133–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.028.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Tamsanya, S., Chungpaibulpatana, S., & Limmeechokchai, B. (2009). Development of a driving cycle for the measurement of fuel consumption and exhaust emissions of automobiles in Bangkok during peak periods. International Journal of Automotive Technology, 10, 251–264. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12239-009-0030-4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- U.S. EIA (2016). International energy outlook 2016, International Energy Outlook 2016. Washington, DC. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2016).pdf.
- UITP (2016). Mena Transport Report 2016.Google Scholar
- UNECE (2013). For Future Inland Transport Systems (ForFITS) User Manual.Google Scholar
- UNECE (2017). ForFITS tool for emissions reduction in transport.Google Scholar
- USDOE (2014). Vehicles per capita other regions [WWW Document].Google Scholar
- Ventana Systems Inc (2013). Vensim® User Manual.Google Scholar
- Watson, H. C., Milkins, E. E., Braunsteins, J. (1982). Development of the Melbourne peak cycle. In Second conference on traffic energy and emissions Melbourne. Melbourne.Google Scholar
- WEC (2011). Global transport scenarios 2050, World Energy Council. London, United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.05.049.