Abstract
All data and geospatial analyses come with uncertainty. Although its importance has been widely recognized, uncertainty issues are still not correctly addressed in most of the current geospatial research. This chapter aims to provide an overview of the concepts, sources and tools to manage the uncertainty in geospatial analysis. To this end, we intend to increase the awareness about the importance of uncertainty for all geospatial data and analyses. Due to time and chapter length considerations, we address this topic from the Land Use Cover Change Modelling perspective.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Aldwaik SZ, Onsted JA, Pontius RG Jr (2015) Behavior-based aggregation of land categories for temporal change analysis. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 35:229–238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2014.09.007
Ascough JC, Maier HR, Ravalico JK, Strudley MW (2008) Future research challenges for incorporation of uncertainty in environmental and ecological decision-making. Ecol Modell 219:383–399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.07.015
Aspinall RJ, Pearson DM (1995) Describing and managing uncertainty of categorical maps in GIS. In: Fisher P (ed) Innovations in GIS, vol 2. Taylor & Francis, London, Bristol, pp 71–83
Batisani N, Yarnal B (2009) Uncertainty awareness in urban sprawl simulations: lessons from a small US metropolitan region. Land Use Policy 26:178–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.01.013
Bolliger J, Schmatz D, Pazúr R et al (2017) Reconstructing forest-cover change in the Swiss Alps between 1880 and 2010 using ensemble modelling. Reg Environ Change 17:2265–2277. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1090-4
Botterweg P (1995) The user’s influence on model calibration results: an example of the model SOIL, independently calibrated by two users. Ecol Modell 81:71–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3800(94)00161-A
Bradley AV, Rosa IMD, Pontius RG Jr et al (2016) SimiVal, a multi-criteria map comparison tool for land-change model projections. Environ Model Softw 82:229–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.016
Brown JD (2004) Knowledge, uncertainty and physical geography: towards the development of methodologies for questioning belief. Trans Inst Br Geogr 24:367–381. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0020-2754.2004.00342.x
Burnicki AC, Brown DG, Goovaerts P et al (2010) Propagating error in land-cover-change analyses: impact of temporal dependence under increased thematic complexity. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 24:1043–1060. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658810903279008
Castilla G, Hay GJ (2007) Uncertainties in land use data. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:1857–1868. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1857-2007
Chuvieco E (2016) Fundamentals of satellite remote sensing. In: An environmental approach, 2 edn. CRC Press, Boca Raton
Congalton RG (1997) Exploring and evaluating the consequences of vector-to-raster and raster-to-vector conversion. Photogramm Eng Remote Sens 63:425–434
Congalton RG, Fenstermaker LK, John R, Mcgwire KC (1991) Remote sensing and geographic information system data integration: error sources and research issues. Photogramm Eng Remote Sens 57:677–687
Conway TM (2009) The impact of class resolution in land use change models. Comput Environ Urban Syst 33:269–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2009.02.001
Dendoncker N, Schmit C, Rounsevell M (2008) Exploring spatial data uncertainties in land-use change scenarios. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 22:1013–1030. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658810701812836
Díaz-Pacheco J, Van Delden H, Hewitt R (2018) The importance of scale in land use models: experiments in data conversion, data resampling, resolution and neighbourhood extent. In: Camacho Olmedo MT, Paegelow M, Mas J-F, Escobar F (eds) Geomatic approaches for modeling land change scenarios. Springer, Cham, Switzerland, pp 163–186
Dunn WN (2001) Using the method of context validation to mitigate type III error in environmental policy analysis. In: Hisschemöller M, Hoppe R, Dunn WN, Ravetz JR (eds) Knowledge, power and participation in environmental policy analysis. Taylor & Francis, New York, pp 417–436
Elsawah S, Pierce SA, Hamilton SH et al (2017) An overview of the system dynamics process for integrated modelling of socio-ecological systems: lessons on good modelling practice from five case studies. Environ Model Softw 93:127–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.03.001
Ferchichi A, Boulila W, Farah IR (2017) Reducing uncertainties in land cover change models using sensitivity analysis. Knowl Inf Syst. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10115-017-1102-9
García Martínez ED, Chas-Amil ML, Touza J (2015) Assessment of the Spanish land cover information to estimate forest area in Galicia. Boletín la Asoc Geógrafos Españoles 69:333–350
García-Álvarez D (2018) The influence of scale in LULC modelling. A comparison between two different LULC maps (SIOSE and CORINE). In: Camacho Olmedo MT, Paegelow M, Mas J-F, Escobar F (eds) Geomatic approaches for modeling land change scenarios. Springer, Cham, Switzerland, pp 187–213
García-Álvarez D, Camacho Olmedo MT (2017) Changes in the methodology used in the production of the Spanish CORINE: uncertainty analysis of the new maps. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 63:55–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2017.07.001
Gómez Delgado M, Barredo JI (2006) Sistemas de información geográfica y evaluación multicriterio en la ordenación del territorio, 2nd edn. Ra-Ma, Madrid
Gómez Delgado M, Bosque Sendra J (2004) Aplicación de análisis de incertidumbre como método de validación y control del riesgo en la toma de decisiones. GeoFocus 4:179–208
Goodchild MF (1991) Issues of quality and uncertainty. In: Muller J-C (ed) Advances in cartography. International Cartographic Association, Elsevier Applied Science, London, New York, pp 17–42
Grinblat Y, Gilichinsky M, Benenson I (2016) Cellular automata modeling of land-use/land-cover dynamics: questioning the reliability of data sources and classification methods. Ann Am Assoc Geogr 106:1299–1320. https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2016.1213154
Hagen A (2003) Fuzzy set approach to assessing similarity of categorical maps. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 17:235–249. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658810210157822
Hewitt R, Van Delden H, Escobar F (2014) Participatory land use modelling, pathways to an integrated approach. Environ Model Softw 52:149–165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.10.019
Houet T, Vacquié L, Sheeren D (2015) Evaluating the spatial uncertainty of future land abandonment in a mountain valley (Vicdessos, Pyrenees - France): insights from model parameterization and experiments. J Mt Sci 12:1095–1112. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-014-3404-7
Hunter G (2005) Managing uncertainty in GIS. In: Longley PA, Goodchild MF, Maguire DJ, Rhind DW (eds) Geographical information systems: principles, techniques, management and applications. Wiley, Hoboken, pp 633–641
Jafarnezhad J, Salmanmahiny A, Sakieh Y (2012) Subjectivity versus objectivity: comparative study between brute force method and genetic algorithm for calibrating the SLEUTH urban growth model. J Urban Plan Dev 142:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000307
Kemp KK (ed) (2008) Encyclopedia of geographic information science. SAGE Publications, Waimea, Hawaii
Klein Goldewijk K, Verburg PH (2013) Uncertainties in global-scale reconstructions of historical land use: an illustration using the HYDE data set. Landsc Ecol 28:861–877. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-013-9877-x
Klir G, Wierman M (1999) Uncertainty-based information: elements of generalized information theory, 2nd edn. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Kloprogge P, Van der Sluijs JP, Wardekker JA (2007) Uncertainty communication. Issues and good practice. Utrecht
Lee DB (1973) Requiem for large-scale models. J Am Inst Plann 39:163–178
Li H, Wu J (2006) Uncertainty analysis in ecological studies: an overview. In: Wu J, Jones KB, Li H, Loucks OL (eds) Scaling and uncertainty analysis in ecology: methods and applications. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 45–66
Lloyd CD (2014) Exploring spatial scale in geography. Wiley, Chichester
Mahmoud M, Liu Y, Hartmann H et al (2009) A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making. Environ Model Softw 24:798–808. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.010
Matott LS, Babendreier JE, Purucker ST (2009) Evaluating uncertainty in integrated environmental models: a review of concepts and tools. Water Resour Res 45:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007301
Ménard A, Marceau DJ (2005) Exploration of spatial scale sensitivity in geographic cellular automata. Environ Plan B Plan Des 32:693–714. https://doi.org/10.1068/b31163
National Research Council (2014) Advancing land change modeling: opportunities and research requirements. National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
Olaya V (2014) Sistemas de Información Geográfica
Openshaw S (1989) Learning to live with errors in spatial databases. In: Goodchild MF, Gopal S (eds) Accuracy of spatial databases. Taylor & Francis, London, pp 263–276
Paegelow M, Camacho Olmedo MT, Mas J-F, Houet T (2014) Benchmarking of LUCC modelling tools by various validation techniques and error analysis. Cybergeo. https://doi.org/10.4000/cybergeo.26610
Pontius RG Jr, Lippitt CD (2006) Can error explain map differences over time? Cartogr Geogr Inf Sci 33:159–171. https://doi.org/10.1559/152304006777681706
Pontius RG Jr, Millones M (2011) Death to Kappa: birth of quantity disagreement and allocation disagreement for accuracy assessment. Int J Remote Sens 32:4407–4429. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2011.552923
Pontius RG Jr, Spencer J (2005) Uncertainty in extrapolations of predictive land change models. Environ Plan B Plan Des 32:211–230
Pontius RG Jr, Huffaker D, Denman K (2004) Useful techniques of validation for spatially explicit land-change models. Ecol Modell 179:445–461. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.05.010
Quattrochi DA, Goodchild MF (1997) Scale in remote sensing and GIS. CRC Press, Boca Raton
Recker J (2015) Research on conceptual modelling: less known knowns and more unknown unknowns, please. In: Proceedings of the 11th Asia-Pacific conference on conceptual modelling, Australian Computer Society, Sydney, pp 3–7
Reed MS, Challies E, de Vente J et al (2017) A theory of participation: what makes stakeholder and public engagement in environmental management work? Restor Ecol 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1399-0012.2012.01641.x
Refsgaard JC, Van der Sluijs JP, Højberg AL, Vanrolleghem PA (2007) Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process—a framework and guidance. Environ Model Softw 22:1543–1556. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.02.004
Refsgaard JC, Drews M, Jeppesen E et al (2013) The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—a Danish water management example. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 18:337–359. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9366-6
Rosa IMD, Purves D, Carreiras JMB, Ewers RM (2015) Modelling land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon: temporal changes in drivers and calibration issues. Reg Environ Change 15:123–137. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0614-z
Tayyebi AH, Tayyebi A, Khanna N (2014) Assessing uncertainty dimensions in land-use change models: using swap and multiplicative error models for injecting attribute and positional errors in spatial data. Int J Remote Sens 35:149–170. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2013.866293
Torrens PM (2011) Calibrating and validating cellular automata models of urbanization. In: Yang X (ed) Urban remote sensing: monitoring, synthesis and modeling in the urban environment. Wiley, pp 335–345
Uusitalo L, Lehikoinen A, Helle I, Myrberg K (2015) An overview of methods to evaluate uncertainty of deterministic models in decision support. Environ Model Softw 63:24–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.09.017
Van Asselt MBA (2000) Perspectives on uncertainty and risk—the PRIMA approach to decision support. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Dordrecht, London
Van Delden H, Hagen-Zanker A (2009) New ways of supporting decision making: linking qualitative storylines with quantitative modelling. In: Geertman S, Stillwell J (eds) Planning support systems best practice and new methods. Springer, Berlin, pp 347–367
Van Delden H, Seppelt R, White R, Jakeman AJ (2011) A methodology for the design and development of integrated models for policy support. Environ Model Softw 26:266–279. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.03.021
Van Vliet J, Bregt AK, Hagen-Zanker A (2011) Revisiting Kappa to account for change in the accuracy assessment of land-use change models. Ecol Modell 222:1367–1375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.01.017
Verburg PH, Veldkamp A (2004) Projecting land use transitions at forest in the Philippines at two spatial scales. Landscape Ecol 19:77–98. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:LAND.0000018370.57457.58
Verburg PH, Neumann K, Nol L (2011) Challenges in using land use and land cover data for global change studies. Glob Change Biol 17:974–989. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02307.x
Walker WE, Harremoës P, Rotmans J et al (2003) Defining uncertainty: a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support. Integr Assess 4:5–17. https://doi.org/10.1076/iaij.4.1.5.16466
Wardekker JA, Van der Sluijs JP, Janssen PHM et al (2008) Uncertainty communication in environmental assessments: views from the Dutch science-policy interface. Environ Sci Policy 11:627–641. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2008.05.005
Warmink JJ, Janssen JAEB, Booij MJ, Krol MS (2010) Identification and classification of uncertainties in the application of environmental models. Environ Model Softw 25:1518–1527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.04.011
Waser LT, Schwarz M (2006) Comparison of large-area land cover products with national forest inventories and CORINE land cover in the European Alps. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 8:196–207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2005.10.001
Yeh AG-O, Li X (2003) Uncertainties in urban simulation using cellular automata and GIS. In: Proceedings of the 7th international conference on geocomputation. Southampton
Yeh AG-O, Li X (2006) Errors and uncertainties in urban cellular automata. Comput Environ Urban Syst 30:10–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2004.05.007
Acknowledgements
This work has been supported by project SIGEOMOD_2020 BIA2013-43462-P (Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and the FEDER European Regional Development Fund). The first author is also grateful to the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and the European Social Fund for the funding of his research activity.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
García-Álvarez, D., Van Delden, H., Camacho Olmedo, M.T., Paegelow, M. (2019). Uncertainty Challenge in Geospatial Analysis: An Approximation from the Land Use Cover Change Modelling Perspective. In: Koutsopoulos, K., de Miguel González, R., Donert, K. (eds) Geospatial Challenges in the 21st Century. Key Challenges in Geography. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-04750-4_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-04750-4_15
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-04749-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-04750-4
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)