Why the Best Predictive Models Are Often Different from the Best Explanatory Models: A Theoretical Explanation

Sriboonchitta, Songsak; Longpré, Luc; Kreinovich, Vladik; Dumrongpokaphan, Thongchai

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-04263-9_12

Songsak Sriboonchitta⁴,
Luc Longpré⁵,
Vladik Kreinovich⁵ &
…
Thongchai Dumrongpokaphan⁶

Part of the book series: Studies in Computational Intelligence ((SCI,volume 808))

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International Conference of the Thailand Econometrics Society

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Abstract

Traditionally, in statistics, it was implicitly assumed that models which are the best predictors also have the best explanatory power. Lately, many examples have been provided that show that the best predictive models are often different from the best explanatory models. In this paper, we provide a theoretical explanation for this difference.

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References

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the Center of Excellence in Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Thailand. We also acknowledge the partial support of Department of Mathematics, Chiang Mai University, and of the US National Science Foundation via grant HRD-1242122 (Cyber-ShARE Center of Excellence).

The authors are greatly thankful to Professors Hung T. Nguyen and Galit Shmueli for valuable discussions.

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Authors and Affiliations

Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
Songsak Sriboonchitta
University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, 79968, USA
Luc Longpré & Vladik Kreinovich
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
Thongchai Dumrongpokaphan

Authors

Songsak Sriboonchitta
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Luc Longpré
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Vladik Kreinovich
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Thongchai Dumrongpokaphan
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Vladik Kreinovich .

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Editors and Affiliations

Department of Computer Science, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, USA
Vladik Kreinovich
Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
Songsak Sriboonchitta

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Sriboonchitta, S., Longpré, L., Kreinovich, V., Dumrongpokaphan, T. (2019). Why the Best Predictive Models Are Often Different from the Best Explanatory Models: A Theoretical Explanation. In: Kreinovich, V., Sriboonchitta, S. (eds) Structural Changes and their Econometric Modeling. TES 2019. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 808. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-04263-9_12

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-04263-9_12
Published: 24 November 2018
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-04262-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-04263-9
eBook Packages: Intelligent Technologies and RoboticsIntelligent Technologies and Robotics (R0)

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