World Jewish Population, 2018

Abstract

At the beginning of 2018, the world’s Jewish population was estimated at 14,606,100—an increase of 98,400 (0.68%) over the 2017 revised estimate. As the world’s total population increased by 1.13% in 2017, world Jewry increased at about 60% of the general population growth rate. Jewish population was highly concentrated in two countries, Israel (45% of the world total) and the US (39% of the world total), 9% lived in Europe, 3% in other North America and Latin America, and 2% in other continents. A steady demographic increase in Israel was matched by stagnation or decline elsewhere, which was generated by low birth rates, frequent intermarriage, aging, and emigration. Most Jews are increasingly found in just a few more developed and democratic countries, with tens of communities now below a sufficient critical mass needed to sustain community institutions. This chapter carefully reviews different approaches to Jewish population definitions, the different sources available, and their highly variable quality and reliability. The critically important Jewish-Arab population balance in Israel and Palestine is analyzed. Vignettes on the largest Jewish populations— Israel, the United States, France, Canada, the United Kingdom, Argentina, Russia, Germany, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, Ukraine, and Mexico —are also provided.

Appendix

1.1 Definitions

In most Diaspora countries, the core Jewish population (CJP—a concept initially suggested by Kosmin et al. 1991) includes all persons who, when asked in a socio-demographic survey, identify themselves as Jews, or who are identified as Jews by a respondent in the same household, and do not profess another monotheistic religion. Such a definition of a person as a Jew, reflecting subjective perceptions, broadly overlaps, but does not necessarily coincide, with Halakhah (Jewish law) or other normatively binding definitions. Inclusion does not depend on any measure of that person’s Jewish commitment or behavior in terms of religiosity, beliefs, knowledge, communal affiliation, or otherwise. The core Jewish population includes people who identify as Jews by religion, as well as others who do not identify by religion but see themselves as Jews by ethnicity or other cultural criteria (Jewish only, no religion). Some do not even identify themselves as Jews when first asked, but if they descend from Jewish parents and do not hold another religious identity they should be included. All these people are considered to be part of the core Jewish population which also includes all converts to Judaism by any procedure, as well as other people who declare they are Jewish even without formal conversion and do not hold another identity. Persons of Jewish parentage who adopted another monotheistic religion are excluded, as are persons who state being partly Jewish along with another identity, and those of Jewish origin who in censuses or socio-demographic surveys explicitly identify with a non-Jewish religious group without having formally converted. The core population concept offers an intentionally comprehensive and pragmatic, mutually exclusive approach compatible with the analytic options offered by many available demographic data sources.

In the Diaspora, such data often derive from population censuses or socio-demographic surveys where interviewees have the option to decide how to answer relevant questions on religious or ethnic identities. In Israel, personal status is subject to Ministry of the Interior rulings, which rely on criteria established by rabbinic authorities and by the Israeli Supreme Court (Corinaldi 2001). In Israel, therefore, the core Jewish population does not simply express subjective identification but reflects definite legal rules. This entails matrilineal Jewish origin, or conversion to Judaism, and not holding another religion. Documentation to prove a person’s Jewish status may include non-Jewish sources.

A major research issue of growing impact is whether core Jewish identification can or should be mutually exclusive with other religious and/or ethnic identities. In a much debated study—the 2000-01 US National Jewish Population Survey-NJPS 2000-01 (Kotler-Berkowitz et al. 2003)—the solution chosen was to allow for Jews with multiple religious identities to be included in the core Jewish population definition under condition that the other identity was not a monotheistic religion. This resulted in a rather multi-layered and not mutually exclusive definition of the US Jewish population. A further category of Persons of Jewish Background (PJBs) was introduced by NJPS 2000-01. Some PJBs were included in the final Jewish population count and others were not, based on a more thorough evaluation of each individual ancestry and childhood. (See further comprehensive discussions of the demography of US Jews in Heilman 2005, 2013).

The 2013 Pew Research Center survey of Jewish Americans (Pew Research Center 2013), by introducing the previously not empirically tested concept of partly Jewish, helped clarify the demographic picture, but also made the debate about definitions more complicated, and the comparison of results more ambivalent. One intriguing issue concerns the status of the partly Jewish as a standard component of the Jewish collective, as some analysts would have it. Following a similar logic, persons with multiple ethnic identities, including a Jewish one, have been included in some total Jewish population counts for Canada. As against this, other researchers would suggest that the partly Jewish stand conceptually closer to the other Pew survey categories of Non-Jews with Jewish background, or Non-Jews feeling some Jewish affinity. Recent research experience indicates that people may shift their identities over time across the different layers of the core Jewish definition, and between different core and non-core statuses. It is not uncommon to see those shifts across the boundary identifying as Jewish and as something else and vice versa in response to the particular context or moment when the question about identity is being tested. At any particular moment, then, there will be a countable Jewish population, which is not necessarily the same as the previous or the following moment.

Emerging from these more recent research developments, the concept of total population with at least one Jewish parent (JPP) includes the core Jewish population plus anyone currently not identifying as exclusively Jewish but with one or two Jewish parents. In the Pew 2013 survey, the total population with Jewish parents besides the core comprised two sub-groups: (a) persons who report no religion, and declare they are partly Jewish, and (b) persons who report not being Jewish, and declare a Jewish background because they had a Jewish parent (Pew Research Center 2013).

The enlarged Jewish population (EJP—a concept initially suggested by DellaPergola 1975) further expands by including the sum of: (a) the core Jewish population; (b) persons reporting they are partly Jewish; (c) all others of Jewish parentage who—by core Jewish population criteria—are not currently Jewish; (d) all other non-Jews with Jewish background more distant than a Jewish parent; and (e) all respective non-Jewish household members (spouses, children, etc.). Non-Jews with Jewish background, as far as they can be ascertained, include: (a) persons who have adopted another religion, or otherwise opted out, although they may also claim to be Jewish by ethnicity or in some other way—with the caveat just mentioned for recent US and Canadian data; and (b) other persons with Jewish parentage who disclaim being Jewish. It logically follows that most Jews who are identified in the Pew survey as partly Jewish or as PJBs who are not part of the US core Jewish population, as well as many Canadians declaring Jewish as one of multiple ethnicities, naturally should be included under the enlarged definition. For both conceptual and practical reasons, the enlarged definition usually does not include other non-Jewish relatives who lack a Jewish background and live in exclusively non-Jewish households.

The Law of Return population ( LRP ) reflects Israel’s distinctive legal framework for the acceptance and absorption of new immigrants. The Law of Return awards Jewish new immigrants immediate citizenship and other civil rights. The Law of Entrance and the Law of Citizenship apply to all other foreign arrivals, some of whom may ask for Israeli citizenship. According to the current, amended version of the Law of Return (Gavison 2009), a Jew is any person born to a Jewish mother or converted to Judaism (regardless of denomination—Orthodox, Conservative, Reconstructionist, or Reform) who does not have another religious identity. By ruling of Israel’s Supreme Court, conversion from Judaism, as in the case of some ethnic Jews who currently identify with another religion, entails loss of eligibility for Law of Return purposes. Thus, all the Falash Mura—a group of Ethiopian non-Jews with Jewish ancestry—must undergo conversion to be eligible for the Law of Return. The law itself does not affect a person’s Jewish status—which, as noted, is adjudicated by Israel’s Ministry of Interior relying on Israel’s rabbinic authorities—but only for the specific immigration and citizenship benefits granted under the Law of Return. Articles 1 and 4A(a) of this law extend its provisions to all current Jews, their children, and grandchildren, as well as to their respective Jewish or non-Jewish spouses. As a result of its three-generation and lateral extension, the Law of Return applies to a large population—the so-called aliyah eligible—whose scope is significantly wider than the core and enlarged Jewish populations defined above (Corinaldi 1998). It is actually quite difficult to estimate the total size of the Law of Return population. Rough estimates of these higher figures are tentatively suggested below.

Some major Jewish organizations in Israel and the US—such as the Jewish Agency for Israel (JAFI), the American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee (JDC), and the major Jewish Federations in the US—sponsor data collection and tend to influence research targets, rendering them increasingly complex and flexible. Organizations enact their mission toward their respective constituencies based on perceived interests rather than scientific criteria. The understandable interest of organizations to function and secure budgetary resources may prompt them to expand their reach strategies to Jewish populations increasingly closer to the enlarged and Law of Return definitions than to the core definition.

1.2 Presentation and Quality of Data

Jewish population estimates in this chapter refer to January 1, 2018. Efforts to provide the most recent possible picture entail a short span of time for evaluation of available information, hence some margin of inaccuracy. For example, a wealth of data about Israel’s population becomes available annually when the American Jewish Year Book is already in print. Some of Israel’s data here are the product of estimates based on the most recent trends, but may need adjustment when the actual data are released. Indeed, where appropriate, we revise our previous estimates in light of newly acquired information. Corrections also were applied retroactively to the 2017 totals for major geographical regions so as to ensure a better base for comparisons with the 2018 estimates. Corrections of the 2018 estimates, if needed, will be presented in the future.

We provide separate estimates for each country with approximately 100 or more resident core Jews. Estimates of Jews in smaller communities have been added to some of the continental totals. For each country, we provide in the Appendix an estimate of (1) mid-year 2017 total (including both Jews and non-Jews) country population (Population Reference Bureau 2018); (2) the estimated January 1, 2017 core Jewish population (CJP); (3) the number of Jews per 1000 total population; and (4) a rating of the accuracy of the Jewish population estimate. The last three columns provide rough estimates of the population with Jewish parents (JPP), the enlarged Jewish population inclusive of all non-Jewish members in a Jewish household (EJP), and the Law of Return population (LRP). These figures were derived from available information and assessments on the recent extent and generational depth of cultural assimilation and intermarriage in the different countries. The quality of such broader estimates of the aggregate of Jews and non-Jews who often share daily life is much lower than that of the respective core Jewish populations, and the data should be taken as indicative only.

Wide variation exists in the quality of the Jewish population estimates for different countries. For many Diaspora countries, it might be better to indicate a range for the number of Jews (minimum, maximum) rather than a definite estimate. It would be confusing, however, for the reader to be confronted with a long list of ranges; this would also complicate the regional and world totals. The estimates reported for most of the Diaspora communities should be understood as being the central value of the plausible range for the respective core Jewish populations. The relative magnitude of this range varies inversely with the accuracy of the estimate. One issue of growing significance is related to persons who hold multiple residences in different countries. Based on available evidence, we make efforts to avoid double counting. Wherever possible, we strive to assign people to their country of permanent residence, ignoring the effect of part-year residents. (This is similar to the part-year resident, or “snowbird” issue in estimating the US Jewish population in Sheskin and Dashefsky, in this volume.)

Jewish population data come from a large array of different sources, each with inherent advantages and disadvantages. We report both the main type and the evaluated accuracy of the sources used in this study. In the Appendix Table the main types of sources are indicated as follows:

• (C) National population census. This in theory would be the best source, but undercounts and over counts do occur in several countries which need to be evaluated.

• (P) National population register. Some countries, besides the periodical census, also keep a permanent population register which is constantly updated through detailed accountancy of individual demographic events.

• (S) Survey of the Jewish population, national or inclusive of the main localities, undertaken most often by a Jewish community organization, and sometimes by a public organization.

• ( J) Jewish community register kept by a central Jewish community organization.

• (E) Estimate otherwise obtained by a Jewish organization.

Our estimates reflect these sources, but the figures reported below do not necessarily correspond exactly with those indicated in the given sources. When necessary, additional information is brought to bear in deriving our estimates. The three main elements that affect the accuracy of each country’s Jewish population estimate are: (a) the nature and quality of the base data, (b) how recent the base data are, and (c) the updating method. A simple code combines these elements to provide a general evaluation of the reliability of data reported in the Appendix Table, as follows:

• (A) Base estimate derived from a national census or reliable Jewish population survey; updated on the basis of full or partial information on Jewish population change in the respective country during the intervening period.

• (B) Base estimate derived from less accurate but recent national Jewish population data; updated on the basis of partial information on Jewish population change during the intervening period.

• (C) Base estimate derived from less recent sources and/or unsatisfactory or partial coverage of a country’s Jewish population; updated on the basis of demographic information illustrative of regional demographic trends.

• (D) Base estimate essentially speculative; no reliable updating procedure.

The year in which a country’s base estimate or important partial updates were initially obtained is also stated. This is not the current estimate’s date but the initial basis for its attainment. An X is appended to the accuracy rating for several countries whose Jewish population estimate for 2017 was not only updated but also revised in light of improved information.

One additional tool for updating Jewish population estimates is provided by several sets of demographic projections developed by the Division of Jewish Demography and Statistics at the Institute of Contemporary Jewry of The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (DellaPergola et al. 2000b; and author’s current updating). Such projections, based on available data on Jewish population composition by age and sex, extrapolate the most recently observed or expected Jewish population trends over the first two decades of the twenty-first century. Even where reliable information on the dynamics of Jewish population change is not available, the powerful connection that generally exists between age composition, birth rates, death rates, and migration helps provide plausible scenarios for the developments that occur in the short term. Where better data were lacking, we used findings from these projections to refine the 2017 estimates against previous years. It should be acknowledged that projections are shaped by a comparatively limited set of assumptions and need to be constantly updated in light of actual demographic developments.

Appendix Table Jewish population by country, core definition and expanded definitions, 1/1/2018