Trends of post-Cold War Autocratization

Abstract

What prevailing forms does autocratization take in the post-Cold War period? In this chapter, the authors engage in the empirical analysis of post-Cold War processes of autocratization. Based on the analytical framework elaborated in the previous chapter of this book, the authors identify a global sample of autocratization episodes occurred between 1990 and 2015, and map geographical and historical trends. The analysis confirms that autocratization represents an increasingly relevant political phenomenon, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, Asia and the post-communist world. Post-Cold War autocratization takes four main forms, namely, transitions from liberal democracy to defective democracy; from defective democracy to electoral autocracy; from defective democracy to closed autocracy; and from electoral autocracy to closed autocracy. Moreover, autocratization tends to take different forms in different regions, and to “evolve” through time.

Appendix

Countries Examined During the Case Selection Process

Afghanistan; Albania; Algeria; Angola; Argentina; Armenia (1991)*; Australia; Austria; Azerbaijan (1991); Bangladesh; Belarus (1991); Belgium; Benin; Bhutan**; Bolivia; Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992); Botswana; Brazil; Bulgaria; Burkina Faso; Burundi; Cambodia; Cameroon; Canada; Cape Verde**; Central African Republic; Chad; Chile; China; Colombia; Comoros**; Congo Dem Rep; Congo Rep; Costa Rica; Cote d’Ivoire; Croatia (1991); Cuba; Cyprus; Czech Republic (1993); Denmark; Djibouti**; Dominican Republic; Ecuador; Egypt; El Salvador; Equatorial Guinea; Eritrea (1993); Estonia (1991); Ethiopia; Fiji**; Finland; France; Gabon; Gambia; Georgia (1991); Germany; Ghana; Greece; Guatemala; Guinea; Guinea-Bissau; Guyana**; Haiti; Honduras; Hungary; India; Indonesia; Iran; Iraq; Ireland; Israel; Italy; Jamaica; Japan; Jordan; Kazakhstan (1991); Kenya; Kosovo (2008); Kuwait; Kyrgyzstan (1991); Laos; Latvia (1991); Lebanon; Lesotho; Liberia; Libya; Lithuania (1991); Macedonia (1991); Madagascar; Malawi; Malaysia; Mali; Mauritania; Mauritius; Mexico; Moldova (1991); Mongolia; Montenegro (2006)**; Morocco; Mozambique; Myanmar; Namibia (1990); Nepal; Netherlands; New Zealand; Nicaragua; Niger; Nigeria; North Korea; Norway; Oman; Pakistan; Panama; Papua New Guinea; Paraguay; Peru; Philippines; Poland; Portugal; Qatar; Romania; Russia (1991); Rwanda; Saudi Arabia; Senegal; Serbia (1992); Sierra Leone; Singapore; Slovakia (193); Slovenia (1991); Solomon Islands**; Somalia; South Africa; South Korea; South Sudan (2011); Spain; Sri Lanka; Sudan; Suriname**; Swaziland; Sweden; Switzerland; Syria; Taiwan; Tajikistan (1991); Tanzania; Thailand; Timor-Leste (2002); Togo; Trinidad and Tobago; Tunisia; Turkey; Turkmenistan (1991); Uganda; UK; Ukraine (1991); Uruguay; USA; Uzbekistan (1991); Venezuela; Vietnam; Yemen (1990); Zambia; Zimbabwe.

* When a year is specified in parentheses, it refers to the year in which the country has gained independence, that is, the first observed year for that country. When no year is specified, the first year of observation is 1990.

** Country with a population between 500,000 and 1,000,000 inhabitants.

Sources of Data and Information Used During the Case Selection and Classification Process

• Amnesty International: https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/.

• Authoritarian Regimes Dataset: Wahman, M., Teorell, J., and Hadenius, A. Authoritarian Regime Types Revisited: Updated Data in Comparative Perspective. Contemporary Politics, 19(1). https://sites.google.com/site/authoritarianregimedataset/.

• Autocracies of the World: Magaloni, B., Chu, J., and Min, E. (2013). Autocracies of the World, 1950–2012 (Version 1.0). Dataset, Stanford University. Magaloni, B. (2008). Credible Power-Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule. Comparative Political Studies, 41(4–5), 715–741. https://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/research/autocracies_of_the_world_dataset.

• Autocratic Regimes Dataset: Geddes, B., Wright, J., and Frantz, E. (2014). Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions. Perspectives on Politics, 12(2). http://sites.psu.edu/dictators/.

• Coup d’Etat Events: Center for Systemic Peace, Marshall, M. G., and Marshall, D. R. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html.

• Database of Political Institutions, Inter-American Development Bank. Thorsten, B., Clarke, G., Groff, A., Keefer, P., and Walsh, P. (2001). New Tools in Comparative Political Economy: The Database of Political Institutions. World Bank Economic Review, 15(1), 165–176 (September) http://www.iadb.org/en/research-and-data/publication-details,3169.html?pub_id=IDB-DB-121.

• Democracy and Dictatorship Dataset: Cheibub, J. A., Gandhi, J., and Vreeland, J. R. (2010). Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited. Public Choice, 143(1–2), 67–101. https://sites.google.com/site/joseantoniocheibub/datasets/democracy-and-dictatorship-revisited.

• Freedom House, Freedom in the World Report. https://freedomhouse.org/report-types/freedom-world.

• Freedom House, Freedom of the Press. https://freedomhouse.org/report-types/freedom-press.

• Freedom House, Nations in Transit. https://freedomhouse.org/report-types/nations-transit.

• Human Rights Watch: https://www.hrw.org/publications.

• Lexical Index of Electoral Democracy: Skaaning, S.-E., Gerring, J., and Bartusevičius, H. (2015). A Lexical Index of Electoral Democracy. Comparative Political Studies, 48(12), 1491–1525. http://ps.au.dk/forskning/forskningsprojekter/dedere/datasets/.

• National Elections Across Democracy and Autocracy Dataset (NELDA): Hyde, S. D., and Marinov, N. (2012). Which Elections Can Be Lost? Political Analysis, 20(2), 191–210. http://www.nelda.co/.

• Polity IV Project, Center for Systemic Peace: Marshall, M. G., Gurr, T. R., and Jaggers, K. http://www.systemicpeace.org/polityproject.html.

• State Failure Problem Set: Political Instability Task Force, Centre for Systemic Peace. http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html.

• U.S. Department of State: https://www.state.gov/j/drl/index.htm.

• Varieties of Democracy: Coppedge, M., Gerring, J., Lindberg, S., Skaaning, S.-E., Teorell, J., Altman, D., Andersson, F., Bernhard, M., Fish, M. S., Glynn, A., Hicken, A., Knutsen, H., Marquardt, K. K., McMann, K., Mechkova, V. Paxton, P., Pemstein, D., Saxer, L., Seim, B., Sigman, R., and Staton, J. (2017). V-Dem Codebook v7.1. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. https://www.v-dem.net/en/.

Table 3.2 Autocratization episodes, 1990–2015