Climate Theory and Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment
- 375 Downloads
The links between the ability of general circulation models to simulate tropical cyclones and the development of a climate theory of tropical cyclone formation are explored, with an emphasis on the potential of general circulation models (GCMs) and theory for tropical cyclone hazard and risk assessment. While GCMs can now generate a reasonable simulation of the observed tropical cyclone formation rates and intensity distributions, they are very expensive to run. Simpler methods involving statistical relationships between climate variables and tropical cyclone formation have been developed and have been used for hazard assessment, but like other methods used for projections, such as downscaling or GCMs, they do not constitute a theory of tropical cyclone formation. An outline is given of some of the possible characteristics of such a theory and its potential utility for climate science and risk.
KeywordsTropical cyclone Tropical climate Tropical cyclone formation
The author would like to acknowledge funding from Australian Research Council Discovery Projects DP150102272. Funding also has been supplied by the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences’ Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI).
- DeMaria M, Kaplan J (1994) A statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic basin. Weather Forecast 9:209–220. https://doi.org/10.1175
- Emanuel KA (2010) Tropical cyclone activity downscaled from NOAA-CIRES reanalysis, 1908–1958. J Adv Model Earth Syst 2. https://doi.org/10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1
- Emanuel K, Nolan DS (2004) Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system. In: Proceedings of 26th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, No. 10A.2, pp 240–241Google Scholar
- Frank WM (1987) Tropical cyclone formation. In: Elsberry RL (ed) A global view of tropical cyclones. Office of Naval Research, Washington, DC, pp 53–90Google Scholar
- Frank WM (2008) What role do tropical cyclones play in the general circulation? In: Proceedings of the 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April–2 May 2008, Orlando, FL, American Meteorological SocietyGoogle Scholar
- Gray WM (1975) Tropical cyclone genesis. Colorado State University, ColoradoGoogle Scholar
- Gray WM (1979) Hurricanes: their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. In: Shaw DB (ed) Meteorology over the tropical oceans. Royal Meteorolgical Soc, Bracknell, pp 155–218Google Scholar
- Merlis TM (2014). Tropical cyclone frequency in simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum. Available at: https://ams.confex.com/ams/31Hurr/webprogram/Paper244915.html.
- Miyamoto Y, Bryan GH, Rotunno R (2014) An analytical model of maximum potential intensity for tropical cyclones incorporating the effect of ocean mixing. Geophys Res Lett 107:4801Google Scholar
- Walsh KJE, Camargo SJ, Vecchi GA, Daloz AS, Elsner J, Emanuel K, Horn M, Lim Y-K, Roberts M, Patricola C, Scoccimarro E, Sobel AH, Strazzo S, Villarini G, Wehner M, Zhao M, Kossin J, LaRow T, Oouchi K, Schubert S, Wang H, Bacmeister J, Chang P, Chauvin F, Jablonowski C, Kumar A, Murakami H, Ose T, Reed KA, Saravanan R, Yamada Y, Zarzycki CM, Vidale P-L, Jonas JA, Henderson N (2015) Hurricanes and climate: the U.S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 96:997–1017CrossRefGoogle Scholar