Some Concluding Observations About Actuarial Justice and More

  • Richard Berk


This chapter offers some brief thoughts about what the future may hold for the procedures that figure centrally in the book, and discusses implications beyond the nuts-and-bolts problem of forecasting criminal behavior. A key topic is actuarial justice and several associated trends. There are also some brief observations about “black-box” forecasting tools, the future of criminal justice research, and something one might call “dark structure.”


  1. Benjamin, D. J., Berger, J. O., Johannesson, M., Nosek, B. A., Wagenmakers, E.–J., Berk, R., Bollen, K. A., Brembs, B., Brown, L., Camerer, C., Cesarini, D., Chambers, C. D., Clyde, M., Cook, T. D., De Boeck, P., Dienes, Z., Dreber, A., Easwaran, K., Efferson, C., Fehr, E., Fidler, F., Field, A. P., Forster, M., George, E. I., Gonzalez, R., Goodman, S., Green, E., Green, D. P., Greenwald, A., Hadfield, J. D., Hedges, L. V., Held, L., Ho, T.–H., Hoijtink, H., Jones, J. H., Hruschka, D. J., Imai, K., Imbens, G., Ioannidis, J. P. A., Jeon, M., Kirchler, M., Laibson, D., List, J., Little, R., Lupia, A., Machery, E., Maxwell, S. E., McCarthy, M., Moore, D., Morgan, S. L., Munafó, M., Nakagawa, S., Nyhan, B., Parker, T. H., Pericchi, L., Perugini, M., Rouder, J., Rousseau, J., Savalei, V., Schönbrodt, F. D., Sellke, T., Sinclair, B., Tingley, D., Van Zandt, T., Vazire, S., Watts, D. J., Winship, C., Wolpert, R. L., Xie, Y., Young, C., Zinman, J., & Johnson, V. E. (2017). “Redefine Statistical Significance.” Nature Human Behavior 2: 6–10.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Boonin, D. (2011) Should Race Matter? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Boonin, D. (2008) The Problem of Punishment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Buruma, Y. (2004) Risk assessment and criminal law: closing the gap between criminal law and and criminology (pp. 41–61). In G. Bruinsma and H. Elffers (eds.) Punishment, Place, and Perpetrators: Developments in Criminology and Criminal Justice Research. Portland, OR: Willan Publishing.Google Scholar
  5. Coglianese, C., & Lehr, D. (2017) Regulating by robot: administrative decision making in the machine learning era. Georgetown Law Journal 105: 1147–1223.Google Scholar
  6. Domingos, P., (2015) The master algorithm: how the question for the ultimate learning machine will remake out world. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
  7. Farrell, D. (2003) The justification for general deterrence. In D. Matravers, and J. Pike (eds.) Debates in Contemporary Political Philosophy: An Anthology. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  8. Feeley, M., & Simon, J. (1994). Actuarial justice: The emerging new criminal law. In D. Nelken (ed.), The Futures of Criminology (pp. 173–201). London: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
  9. Ferguson, A.G. (2017) The Rise of Big Data Policing: Surveillance, Race, and the Future of Law Enforcement New York: New York University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Harcourt, B.W. (2007) Against Prediction: Profiling, Policing, and Punishing in an Actuarial Age. Chicago, University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  11. Henry, V.E. (2003) The Compstat Paradigm. New York: Loose Leaf Law Publications.Google Scholar
  12. Huq, A.Z. (2019) Racial equality in algorithmic criminal justice. Duke Law Journal 68, forthcoming.Google Scholar
  13. Kearns, M.J. & Vaziranim U.V. (1996) An Introduction to Computational Learning Theory Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
  14. Messinger, S.L., & Berk, R.A.(1987) Dangerous people: a review of the NAS report on career criminals. Criminology 25(3): 767–781CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Monahan, J. (2006) A jurisprudence of risk assessment: forecasting harm among prisoners, predators, and patients. Virginia Law Review 92: 391–435.Google Scholar
  16. Petzold, C. (2008) The annotated Turing: a guided tour through Alan Turing’s historic paper on computability and the Turing Machine. New York: Wiley.zbMATHGoogle Scholar
  17. Robert, D. (2005) Actuarial justice. In M. Bosworth (ed.) Encyclopedia of Prisons and Correctional Facilities Vol 1, pp. 11–14. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
  18. Scharre, P. (2018) Army of None. New York: Norton.Google Scholar
  19. Starr, S.B. (2014) Evidence-based sentencing and the scientific rationalization of discrimination. Stanford Law Review 66: 803–872.Google Scholar
  20. Tonry, M. (2014) Legal and ethical issues in the prediction of recidivism.” Federal Sentencing Reporter 26(3): 167–176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. von Hirsh, A. (1995) Censure and Sanctions. Oxford: Oxford University press.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Richard Berk
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of CriminologyUniversity of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphiaUSA

Personalised recommendations