Abstract
In this study, it is clarified that a dynamical system of rolling motion can be approximated by a time-varying autoregressive model , which is a kind of statistical model. As the result, when it is possible to measure the time series of rolling motion, a ship’s stability can be judged based on time series analysis by using a time-varying autoregressive modeling procedure. As for the verification of this method, the results of the model experiment for parametric roll resonance were used. It was confirmed that an evaluation of ship safety is possible based on the proposed procedure.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Bartlett, M. S. (1946), “On the Theoretical Specification of Sampling Properties of Autocorrelated Time Series,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B8, pp. 27–41.
Hashimoto, H., Matsuda, A. and Umeda, N. (2005), “Model Experiment on Parametric Roll of a Post-Panamax Container Ship in Short-Crested Irregular Seas (in Japanese),” Conference Proceedings of the Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean Engineering, Vol. 1, pp. 71–74.
Kitagawa, G. and Gersch, W. (1996) Smoothness Priors Analysis of Time Series, Springer-Verlag, New York.
Kitagawa, G. (2010) Introduction to Time Series Modeling, Chapman & Hall.
Ozaki, T. (1986), “Local Gaussian Modelling of Stochastic Dynamical Systems in the Analysis of Nonlinear Random Vibrations,” in Essays in Time Series and Allied Processes, Festshrift in honour of Prof. E.J. Hannan, Probability Trust.
Terada, D., Hashimoto, H. and Matsuda, A. (2016), “Estimation of Parameters in the Linear Stochastic Dynamical System Driven by Colored Noise Sequence,” Proceedings of the ISCIE International Symposium on Stochastic Systems Theory and its Applications, Volume 2016, pp. 125–131.
Umeda, N. and Taguchi, H. (2003), “Parametric Roll Resonance (in Japanese),” Symposium Proceedings of JTTC, pp. 217–235.
Umeda, N. (2007), “Strategy towards Development of Performance-Based Intact Stability Criteria at IMO(in Japanese),” Conference Proceedings of the Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean Engineering, Vol. 5E, pp. 19–22.
Yamanouchi, Y. (1956), “On the Analysis of ship’s Oscillations as a Time Series (in Japanese),” Journal of Marine Science and Technology, pp. 47–64.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) from the MEXT (No. 21760672). Authors would like to thank Dr. Hirotada HASHIMOTO (Kobe University), Prof. Naoya UMEDA (Osaka University), Prof. Genshiro KITAGAWA (University of Tokyo) and Prof. Emeritus Kohei OHTSU (Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology) for helpful suggestions. The authors would like to thank Enago (www.enago.jp) for the English language review.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Terada, D., Matsuda, A. (2019). Onboard Analysis of Ship Stability Based on Time-Varying Autoregressive Modeling Procedure. In: Belenky, V., Spyrou, K., van Walree, F., Almeida Santos Neves, M., Umeda, N. (eds) Contemporary Ideas on Ship Stability. Fluid Mechanics and Its Applications, vol 119. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00516-0_50
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00516-0_50
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-00514-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-00516-0
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)