Abstract
Scenario analysis deals with strategic uncertainty . It introduces a new way of thinking about problems. We use scenario analysis when we don’t know what will happen next, and when we are facing such strategic ambiguity that we don’t even know what game we are playing. Digital transformations are like that. We don’t know what the rules are. If we’re executives, we don’t know what’s possible, what our customers will want, or what our regulators will permit. We don’t know what our opponents’ strategies will be, or what strategies we should adopt in response. If we’re consumers, we don’t know what to buy, or how to choose, or what the sharing economy of Uber and Airbnb will do for us, or to our neighborhoods. We need a way to figure out what the new rules will be, and what the new strategic choices will be. We need to know what game we are playing. Then, we can develop our strategies, for our businesses and for our lives. Scenario analysis doesn’t start by gathering data. The process starts by identifying questions that will be important and then seeks to determine the data that you will wish you could have to answer those questions.
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Notes
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As I wrote the final draft of this chapter, I Googled <<“brake failure”>> and <<“accelerator failure”>>. The first returned 566,000 results, while the second returned 3530. When I Googled <<“brake failure” stop safely>>, there were still 270,000 results, and when I Googled <<“accelerator failure” stop safely>>, there were only 2800 results. Of the two, stopping safely after accelerator linkage failure accounted for only 1% of the total number of the results. If I merely looked at data, and indeed had done so in 1986, accelerator linkage failure would not appear to be a significant safety hazard.
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However, as we learn more about trap doors , Trojan horses , and the mechanisms hidden with some Chinese corporate electronics products, we understand that even for corporate customers thorough quality inspections may not be possible. Trap doors are deliberate defects placed in code to enable the author to gain control over the program or the device later. Trojan horses are pretty much the same thing, but usually are built into chips. Both have been problems with Chinese high-tech imports.
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Clemons, E.K. (2019). Scenario Analysis and Managing Strategic Ambiguity: How to Remember Future Events, Before They Actually Occur!. In: New Patterns of Power and Profit. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00443-9_10
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-00443-9_10
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