Abstract
The European Union is the second largest economy in the world, but does it have a global economic strategy? 10 years after the creation of the euro, there is little evidence for it. Policy makers are more concerned with protecting narrow domestic advantages than with improving opportunities for the European economy as a whole. The Lisbon Treaty offers now a new perspective. It explicitly calls for policies that “encourage the integration of all countries into the world economy” (art. 21). It will be the task of the new President of the European Council and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs in the European Commission to translate this objective into a coherent strategy that takes into account the euro as the second world reserve currency. This chapter looks at the most urgent issue: how to restructure the world economy after the financial crisis and remove the huge global imbalances. This is an important task, because macroeconomic imbalances were a major cause for the financial crisis. Exchange rate policies for the euro will have to play a major part in such a strategy and this is an eminently political project. I will first discuss the lessons to be learned from the crisis, and then draw conclusions for an international strategy.
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References
“World Economic Outlook”, IMF, Washington DC, October 2009.
Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff, “Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes”, November 2009, http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~obstfeld/santabarbara.pdf; see also John B. Taylor, Getting Off Track, Stanford, Hoover Institution Press, 2009.
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The grey shaded areas indicate recessions or financial market crashs.
W. A. Lewis, “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor,” Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, vol. 22, 1954, pp. 139–91.
Cai Fang, (Decreasing Supply of Rural Surplus Labour, Opportunities and Challenges), Chinese Economists 50 Forum 50, 4.2006.
For example China supplies about 1/5 of the world textile consumption; by 2025 the market share is expected to increase to 1/2.
Established in 1967, ASEAN now encompasses 10 South-East Asian countries: Brunei, Burma/ Myanmar, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Only the original 6 founding members, abbreviated as ASEAN-6, (Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei) can be considered as emerging market economies in the proper sense. See also European Commission, Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, Vol. 8.2, Dec. 2009, http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication_summary16509_en.htm
Volatility is here measured as the standard deviation of the weekly exchange rate variation over the period 1/1/1999 to 12/11/2009.
In Collignon, 2008, I have shown that the relation between Chinese FDI and the Japanese yen, which fluctuates between euro and USD, is statistically indeterminate. But volatility in the RMB-USD, RMB-Yen and the Yen-USD exchange rates lower foreign direct investment in China. See also Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Lionel Fontagné, and Amina Lahrèche-Révil, “Exchange-Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment”, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 15, 2001, p.178–198.
Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff, “Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, 2005, p.67–146.
Kevin O’Rourke, The world rebalances at Europe’s expense, 2009, www.eurointelligence.eu
See M. Obstfeld and K. Rogoff, “Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes”, November 2009, http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~obstfeld/santabarbara.pdf. The authors argue that pegging and the currency composition of reserve holdings are not necessarily related. However, imagine a speculative attack against a country that has pegged against the euro, but keeps foreign exchange reserves in dollars. If the dollar is weak at that moment, the mobilization of reserves would be more costly. Prudent reserve management therefore requires keeping reserves in the pegged currency.
ASEM stands for regular Asia-Europe Meeting of 27 EU and 13 Asian countries and provides the forum for high level policy dialogue.
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Collignon, S. (2010). Does Europe have an External Economic Strategy?. In: State of the Union 2010. Springer, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-2-8178-0175-9_9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-2-8178-0175-9_9
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