Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Forecasting in Middle Latitudes pp 1–80Cite as

Forecasting in Middle Latitudes

  • Chapter

Part of the book series: Meteorological Monographs ((METEOR,volume 1))

Abstract

This volume is concerned with prediction for periods of medium duration from one to three days. It presents those suggestions on forecasting appearing in the synoptic literature, those computations outlined in the theoretical papers, and those current ideas that in the authors’ opinion are useful or worth trying out.

The introduction takes up the methodology of forecasting. Following a description of the various routes chosen by different writers to make predictions, it is concluded that the prognostic-chart method is the most valid technique at this time; further, that for forecasts in excess of 24 hr, it is logical to make the upper-air prognosis at first and then translate it into a surface forecast with some computations and with the aid of rules and models. The minimum data and chart material requisite for the routine are listed.

Chapter II gives the tools for the upper-air prognosis, beginning with the broadest scale features and then narrowing the considerations by steps to the details of forecast districts. An initial section on the “index cycle” takes up the evolution of hemispheric weather patterns. Then the long-wave calculations determine the principal features of the variation of flow pattern with longitude. Such rudimentary methods as are now available to predict blocks and closed centers within the westerlies further establish the prognostic field of flow. A discussion of the prediction of the very important velocity concentrations and slow areas within the upper current follows, also a section on the placing of the short waves aloft which are superimposed on the long waves. The chapter closes with a suggested routine for preparation of the upper-air prognostic chart.

Chapter III treats the surface prognosis, beginning with the central subject of forecasting—the formation and deepening of cyclones. It is shown that most forecasting methods offered to date on this problem largely express instantaneous correlations so that their value for prediction is limited to very short time intervals. The conclusion is drawn that the prediction of cyclone formation two days ahead is best done by means of evaluation of the vorticity field of the upper-air prognosis. Next the chapter takes up the movement of highs and lows, based mainly on the steering principle, and it develops a routine for the construction of surface prognostic charts including some dynamical consistency checks between upper-air and surface prognosis. An extensive discussion of the preparation of temperature and rainfall prediction—usually treated very briefly in texts on forecasting—terminates the chapter.

In chapter IV, we go through the steps of the prognosis of a field example. The prognostic chart shown is essentially a copy of the prognosis made at the time.

Finally, the calculations that form the basis of chapters II and III are described in ten appendices.

A technical report prepared at the University of Chicago under contracts with the U. S. Weather Bureau and the Office of Naval Research.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   36.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Allen, R. A., et al. 1940: Report on an experiment in five-day weather forecasting. Pap. phys. Ocean. Meteor., Mass. Inst. Tech. & Woods Hole Ocean Instn., 4 no. 3, 94 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Austin, J. M., 1947: An empirical study of certain rules for forecasting the movement and intensity of cyclones. J. Meteor., 4, 16–20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Bice, E. G., and G. T. Stephens, 1944: Correlations of isallobaric patterns in the high atmosphere with those at the surface. Dept. Meteor. Univ. Chicago, Misc. Rep., no. 12, 44 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Bjerknes, J., 1951: Extratropical cyclones, Compendium of Meteorology. Boston, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 577–598.

    Google Scholar 

  5. Bowie, E. H., and R. H. Weightman, 1914: Types of storms of the United States and their average movements. Mo. Wea. Rev., Suppl. 1, 37 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  6. Brunt, D., 1939: Physical and dynamical meteorology. Cambridge, England, University Press, 428 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  7. Bundgaard, R. C., 1951: A procedure of short-range weather forecasting, Compendium of Meteorology. Boston, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 766–795.

    Google Scholar 

  8. California Institute of Technology, Department of Meteorology, 1943: Synoptic weather types of North America mimeographed.

    Google Scholar 

  9. Charney, J. G., 1949: On a physical basis for numerical prediction of large-scale motions in the atmosphere. J. Meteor., 6, 371–385.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Charney, J. G., and A. Eliassen, 1949: A numerical method for predicting the perturbations of the middle latitude westerlies. Tellus, 1, no. 2, 38–54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. R. Fj¢rtoft, and J. von Neumann, 1950: Numerical integration of the barotropic vorticity equation. Ibid., 2, 237–254.

    Google Scholar 

  12. Clayton, H. H., 1920: Variations in solar radiation and the weather. Smithson. misc. Coll., 71, no. 3, 53 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  13. Craig, R. A., and D. Hawkins, 1951: Atmospheric pressure changes and solar activity. Harvard University Special Report no. 38, mimeographed, 34 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  14. Cressman, G. P., 1948: On the forecasting of long waves in the upper westerlies. J. Meteor., 5, 44–57.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Cressman, G. P., 1949: Some effects of wave-length variations of the long waves in the upper westerlies. Ibid., 6, 56–60.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Cressman, G. P., 1950: Variations in the structure of the upper wester- lies. Ibid., 7, 39–47.

    Google Scholar 

  17. Crocker, A. M., W. L. Godson, and C. M. Penner, 1947: Frontal contour charts. Ibid., 4, 95–99.

    Google Scholar 

  18. Defant, F., 1952: A kinematic-graphical method for the 24-hour prognosis of the 500-mb chart (to be published).

    Google Scholar 

  19. Dunn, G. E., 1951: Short-range weather forecasting, Compendium of Meteorology. Boston, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 77–65.

    Google Scholar 

  20. Elliott, R. D., 1949: Forecasting the weather—the weather types of North America. Weatherwise, 2, in six installments, nos. 1–6.

    Google Scholar 

  21. Fujiwhara, S., 1923: On the growth and decay of vortical systems. Quart. J. roy. meteor. Soc., 49, 75–104.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Fultz, D., 1945: Upper-air trajectories and weather forecasting. Dept. Meteor. Univ. Chicago, Misc. Rep. no. 19, 123 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  23. Gentry, R. C., 1944: Formation of new moving centers south of deep lows. U. S. Wea. Bur. Res. Paper, no. 7, 39–49.

    Google Scholar 

  24. George, J. J., 1949: On the relationship between the 700-mb surface and the behavior of pressure patterns at the ground. Atlanta, Dept. Meteor., Eastern Airlines, Inc., 43 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  25. Haurwitz, B., 1940: The motion of atmospheric disturbances. J. marine Res., 3, 35–50.

    Google Scholar 

  26. Haurwitz, B., 1946: Relations between solar activity and the lower atmosphere. Trans. Amer. geophys. Union, 27, 161–163.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Hovmoeller, E., 1949: The trough-and-ridge diagram. Tellus, 1, no. 2, 62–66.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Longley, R. W., 1947: A study of the relationship between the 700-nib flow and the movement of surface pressure centers. J. Meteor., 4, 202–204.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Montgomery, R. B., 1940: Report on work of G. T. Walker. Mo. Wea. Rev., Suppl. 39, 1–22.

    Google Scholar 

  30. Muegge, R., 1931: Synoptische Betrachtungen. Met. Zeit., 48, 1–11.

    Google Scholar 

  31. Namias, J., 1947: Extended forecasting by mean circulation methods. Washington, D. C., U. S. Dept. of Commerce, 89 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  32. Namias, J., 1950: The index cycle and its role in the general circu- 55. lation. J. Meteor., 7, 130–139.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Namias, J., and P. F. Clapp, 1944: Studies of the motion and development of long waves in the westerlies. Ibid., 1, 56. 57–77.

    Google Scholar 

  34. Namias, J., and P. F. Clapp, 1949: Confluence theory of the high tropospheric jet stream. Ibid., 6, 330–336.

    Google Scholar 

  35. Newton, C. W., et al., 1951: Structure of shear lines near the tropopause in summer. Tellus, 3, 154–171. 58.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Oliver, V. J., and M. B. Oliver, 1945: Forecasting the weather with the aid of upper-air data. Handbook of meteorology, ed. by F. A. Berry, E. Bollay, and N. R. Beers. New York, McGraw-Hill Book Co., 813–857.

    Google Scholar 

  37. Palmén, E., 1948: On the distribution of temperature and wind in the upper westerlies. J. Meteor., 5, 20–27.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Palmén, E., 1951: The aerology of extratropical disturbances, Compendium of Meteorology. Boston, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 599–620.

    Google Scholar 

  39. Palmén, E., and K. M. Nagler, 1948: An analysis of the wind and temperature distribution in the free atmosphere over North America in a case of approximately westerly flow. J. Meteor., 5, 58–64.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Palmén, E., and C. W. Newton, 1948: A study of the mean wind and temperature distribution in the vicinity of the polar front in winter. Ibid., 5, 220–226.

    Google Scholar 

  41. Palmer, W. C., 1948: On forecasting the direction of movement of winter cyclones. Mo. Wea. Rev., 76, 181–201.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Petterssen, S., 1940: Weather analysis and forecasting. New York, McGraw-Hill Book Co., 503 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  43. Petterssen, J.: On the propagation and growth of jet stream waves (to be published).

    Google Scholar 

  44. Phillips, N. A., 1950: The behavior of jet streams over 69. eastern North America during January and February 1948. Tellus, 2, 116–124. 70.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Pogade, G., 1938: Zyklolyse und Zyklogenese an nordameri- kanischen Kaltfronten. Ann. Hydrogr. mar. Meteor., 66, 71. 32–35.

    Google Scholar 

  46. Rex, D. F., 1950: Blocking action in the middle troposphere and its effect upon regional climate. Tellus, 2, 196–211.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Riehl, H., 1947: Subtropical flow patterns in summer. Dept. Meteor. Univ. Chicago, Misc. Rep. no. 22, 64 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  48. Riehl, H., 1948: Jet stream in upper troposphere and cyclone formation. Trans. Amer. geophys. Union, 29, 175–186.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Riehl, H., et al., 1950: A study of variations of the general circulation. J. Meteor., 7, 181–194.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Riehl, H., and C. O. Jenista, 1952: A quantitative method for the 24-hour jet stream prognosis (to be published).

    Google Scholar 

  51. Riehl, H., K. S. Norquest, and A. L. Sugg, 1952: A quantitative method for the prediction of rainfall patterns (to be published).

    Google Scholar 

  52. Riehl, H., and S. Teweles, 1952: Cyclogenesis of November 12–13, 1951 (to be published).

    Google Scholar 

  53. Rossby, C.-G., and collab., 1939: Relation between variations in the intensity of the zonal circulation of the atmosphere and the displacements of the semi-permanent centers of action. J. marine Res., 2, 38–55.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Rossby, C.-G., 1940: Planetary flow patterns in the atmos-78. phere. Quart. J. roy. meteor. Soc., 66 Suppl., 68–87.

    Google Scholar 

  55. Rossby, C.-G., 1942: Kinematic and hydrostatic properties of certain long waves in the westerlies. Dept. Meteor. Univ. Chicago, Misc. Rep. no. 5, 37 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  56. Rossby, C.-G., 1945: On the propagation of frequencies and energy in certain types of oceanic and atmospheric waves. J. Meteor., 2, 187–204.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Rossby, C.-G., 1949: On a mechanism for the release of potential energy in the atmosphere. Ibid., 6, 163–180.

    Google Scholar 

  58. Rossby, C.-G., 1949: On the dispersion of planetary waves in a barotropic atmosphere. Tellus, 1, no. 1, 54–58.

    Google Scholar 

  59. Rossby, C.-G., 1950: On the dynamics of certain types of blocking waves. J. Chinese geophys. Soc., 2, 1–13.

    Google Scholar 

  60. Rossby, C.-G., and H. C. Willett, 1948: The circulation of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Science, 108, 643–652.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  61. H. Ryd, V., 1923: Meteorological problems, I: Travelling cyclones. Medd. Danske meteor. Inst. no. 5.

    Google Scholar 

  62. H. Ryd, V.,1927: Idem II: The energy of the winds. Ibid. no. 7.

    Google Scholar 

  63. Sawyer, J. S., 1949: Recent research at Central Forecasting Office, Dunstable. Discussion, Quart. J. roy. meteor. Soc., 75, 185.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  64. Scherhag, R., 1948: Neue Methoden der Wetteranalyse und Wetterprognose. Berlin, Springer-Verlag, 424 pp.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  65. Sparkman, J. W., 1951: Geomagnetic conditions and anticyclonic development. Bull. Amer. meteor. Soc., 32, 282–288.

    Google Scholar 

  66. Starr, V. P., 1942: Basic principles of weather forecasting. New York, Harper and Bros., 299 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  67. Starrett, L. G., 1949: The relation of precipitation patterns in North America to certain types of jet streams at the 300-millibar level. J. Meteor., 6, 347–352.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  68. Sutcliffe, R. C., 1939: Cyclonic and anticyclonic development. Quart. J. roy. meteor. Soc., 65, 518–524.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  69. Sutcliffe, R. C., 1947: A contribution to the problem of development. Quart. J. roy. meteor. Soc., 73, 370–383.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  70. Sutcliffe, R. C., et al., 1951: Dynamical methods in synoptic meteorology. Discussion, Quart. J. roy. meteor. Soc., 77, 457–473.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  71. Sutcliffe, R. C., and A. G. Forsdyke, 1950: The theory and use of upper air thickness patterns in forecasting. Quart. J. roy. meteor. Soc., 76, 189–217.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  72. Taylor, G., 1920: Australian meteorology. Oxford, The Clarendon Press, 312 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  73. University of Chicago, Department of Meteorology, 1947: On the general circulation of the atmosphere in middle latitudes. Bull. Amer. meteor. Soc., 28, 255–280.

    Google Scholar 

  74. University of Chicago-U. S. Weather Bureau Forecasting Class of 1951: Experiments in quantitative prediction with the aid of upper air charts. Dept. Meteor. Univ. Chicago (mimeographed).

    Google Scholar 

  75. U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Weather Bureau, 1942: Manual of instruction for issuance of cold waves and related warnings. Washington, D. C., U. S. Weather Bureau.

    Google Scholar 

  76. Wexler, H., 1950: Possible effects of ozonosphere heating on sea-level pressure. J. Meteor., 7, 370–381.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  77. Willett, H. C., 1941: Report of the five-day forecasting procedure, verification and research as conducted between July 1940 and August 1941. Pap. phys. Ocean. Meteor., Mass. Inst. Tech. £e Woods Hole Ocean. Instn., 9, no. 1, 88 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  78. Willett, H. C., 1951: The forecast problem, Compendium of Meteorology. Boston, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 731–746.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Chicago, USA

    Herbert Riehl & N. E. La Seur

  2. U. S. Weather Bureau, USA

    J. Badner, J. E. Hovde, L. L. Means, W. C. Palmer, M. J. Schroeder & L. W. Snellman

Authors
  1. Herbert Riehl
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. N. E. La Seur
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. J. Badner
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. J. E. Hovde
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. L. L. Means
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. W. C. Palmer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. M. J. Schroeder
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. L. W. Snellman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Consortia

Staff, Chicago Forecast Center

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1952 American Meteorological Society

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Riehl, H. et al. (1952). Forecasting in Middle Latitudes. In: Forecasting in Middle Latitudes. Meteorological Monographs, vol 1. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-940033-05-1_1

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-940033-05-1_1

  • Publisher Name: American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-940033-05-1

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation