Skip to main content

The General Question of Predictability

  • Chapter
Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting

Abstract

In general usage, “predict” is defined as “to declare in advance; foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason” (Webster’s Seventh New Collegiate Dictionary). This general definition underlies the scientific concept of atmospheric predictability, which has been the subject of a large number of scientific studies in the last 25 years.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 59.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Anthes, R. A., 1977: A cumulus parameterization scheme utilizing a one-dimensional cloud model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 270–286.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anthes, R. A., 1984: Predictability of mesoscale meteorological phenomena. In Predictability of Fluid Motions (La Jolla Institute-1983). G. Holloway and B. J. West (Eds.), American Institute of Physics, New York, 247–270.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anthes, R. A., and D. P. Baumhefner, 1984: A diagram depicting forecast skill and predictability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 65, 701–703.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anthes, R. A., and T. T. Warner, 1978: Development of hydrodynamic models suit-able for air pollution and other mesometeorological studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 1045–1078.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anthes, R. A., Y.-H. Kuo, S. G. Benjamin, and Y.-F. Li, 1982: The evolution of the mesoscale environment of severe local storms. Preliminary modeling results. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 1187–1213.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anthes, R. A., Y.-H. Kuo, and J. R. Gyakum, 1983: Numerical simulations of a case of explosive marine cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1174–1188.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anthes, R. A., Y.-H. Kuo, D. P. Baumhefner, R. M. Errico, and T. W. Bettge, 1985: Predictability of mesoscale atmospheric motions. Advances in Geo-physics, 28, Part B, 159–202.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baumhefner, D. P., 1984: The relationship between present large-scale forecast skill and new estimates of predictability error growth. In Predictability of Fluid Motions (La Jolla Institute-1983). G. Holloway and B. J. West (Eds.), American Institute of Physics, New York, 169–180.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bjerknes, V., 1919: Wettervorhersage. Meteor. Z., 36, 68.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carlson, T. N., R. A. Anthes, M. Schwartz, S. G. Benjamin, and D. G. Baldwin, 1980: Analysis and prediction of severe storms environment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 61, 1018–1032.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carlson, T. N., S. G. Benjamin, and G. S. Forbes, 1983: Elevated mixed layers in the regional severe storm environment: Conceptual model and case studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1453–1473.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Charney, J. G., R. G. Fleagle, V. E. Lally, H. Riehl, and D. Q. Wark, 1966: The feasiblility of a global observation and analysis experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 47, 200–220.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daley, R., 1981: Predictability experiments with a baroclinic model. Atmos.-Ocean, 19, 77–89.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Errico, R. M., 1985: Spectra computed from a limited-area grid. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1554–1562.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jastrow, R., and M. Halem, 1970: Simulation studies related to GARP. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 51, 490–513.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kasahara, A., 1972: Simulation experiments for meteorological observing systems for GARP. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 53, 252–264.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuo, H. L., 1965: On formation and intensification of tropical cyclones through latent heat release by cumulus convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 22, 40–63.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kuo, H. L., 1974: Further studies of the parameterization of the influence of cumulus convection on large-scale flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1232–1240.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leith, C. E., 1971: Atmospheric predictability and two-dimensional turbulence. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 145–161.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leith, C. E., and R. H. Kraichnan, 1972: Predictability of turbulent flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1041–1058.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lilly, D. K., 1984: Some facets of the predictability problem for atmospheric mesoscales. In Predictability of Fluid Motion (La Jolla Institute-1988). G. Holloway and B. J. West (Eds.), American Institute of Physics, New York, 287–294.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz, E. N., 1969a: The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion. Tellus, 21, 289–294.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz, E. N., 1969b: Atmospheric predictability as revealed naturally occurring analogues. J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 636646.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz, E. N., 1969c: Three approaches to atmospheric predictability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 50, 345–349.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz, E. N., 1984: Estimates of atmospheric predictability at medium range. In Predictability of Fluid Motion (La Jolla Institute-1983). G. Holloway and B. J. West (Eds.), American Institute of Physics, New York, 133–139.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moore, J. T., and H. E. Fuelberg, 1981: A synoptic analysis of the first AVE-SESAME ‘79 period. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 62, 1577–1590.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robinson, G. D., 1967: Some current projects for global meteorological observation and experiment. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc., 93, 409–418.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robinson, G. D., 1971: The predictability of a dissipative flow. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 97, 300–312.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schumann, T. E. W., 1950: The fundamentals of weather forecasting. Weather, 5, 220–224.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shukla, J., 1984: Predictability of a large atmospheric model. In Predictability of Fluid Motions (La Jolla Institute-1989). G. Holloway and B. J. West (Eds.), American Institute of Physics, New York, 449–456.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smagorinsky, J., 1969: Problems and promises of deterministic extended range forecasting. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 50, 286–311.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tennekes, H., 1978: Turbulent flow in two and three dimensions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 59, 22–28.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson, P. D., 1957: Uncertainty of initial state as a factor in the predictability of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns. Tell us, 9, 275–295.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson, P. D., 1984: A review of the predictability problem. In Predictability of Fluid Motions (La Jolla Institute-1989). G. Holloway and B. J. West (Eds.), American Institute of Physics, New York, 1–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williamson, D. L., 1973: The effect of forecast error accumulation on four-dimensional data assimilation. J. Atmos. Sci., 30, 537–543.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williamson, D. L., and P. N. Swarztrauber, 1984: A numerical weather prediction model—Computational aspects on the CRAY-1. Proc. IEEE, 72, 56–67.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, D., and R. A. Anthes, 1982: A high-resolution model of the planetary boundary layer sensitivity tests and comparisons with SESAME-79 data. J. Appl. Meteor., 21, 1594–1609.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1986 American Meteorological Society

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Anthes, R.A. (1986). The General Question of Predictability. In: Ray, P.S. (eds) Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-935704-20-1_27

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-935704-20-1_27

  • Publisher Name: American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-935704-20-1

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics