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Decision Making Under Uncertainty: A New Paradigm for Water Resources Planning and Management

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Book cover Modern Water Resources Engineering

Part of the book series: Handbook of Environmental Engineering ((HEE,volume 15))

Abstract

Climate change challenges water managers to make decisions about future infrastructure and the adequacy of current supplies before the uncertainties of the climate models and their hydrological impacts are resolved. Water managers thus face the classic problem of decision making under uncertainty (DMUU). The aim of DMUU is not to be paralyzed by uncertainty, but to highlight and use it to better manage risk. Strategies for DMUU include scenario planning, exploratory simulation modeling, robust decision making, and anticipatory planning and governance. These tools imply a new role for social scientists in the fields of water science and engineering and a new relationship between water science and the practitioner community. Examples are drawn from Phoenix, Arizona, and the US Southwest for DMUU support tools and strategies for science-policy engagement. Simulation experiments for Phoenix reveal challenging, but feasible, strategies for climate adaptation in the water sector for all but the most dire future climate conditions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

    Patricia Gober Ph.D.

  2. Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada

    Patricia Gober Ph.D.

Authors
  1. Patricia Gober Ph.D.
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Zorex Corporation, Newtonville, New York, USA

    Lawrence K. Wang

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA

    Chih Ted Yang

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Gober, P. (2014). Decision Making Under Uncertainty: A New Paradigm for Water Resources Planning and Management. In: Wang, L., Yang, C. (eds) Modern Water Resources Engineering. Handbook of Environmental Engineering, vol 15. Humana Press, Totowa, NJ. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-62703-595-8_8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-62703-595-8_8

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  • Publisher Name: Humana Press, Totowa, NJ

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-62703-594-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-62703-595-8

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