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Risk Factors and Risk Assessments for Sexual Offense Recidivism

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Sexual Offending

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Abstract

Currently, there are a number of public policies aimed at reducing sexual victimization by managing known sexual offenders via registration, community notification, mandatory treatment, and civil commitment. Because not all sex offenders pose the same risk for reoffense, it is important to have a reliable method to triage between low-, medium-, and high-risk sexual offenders. Identifying risk factors related to sexual recidivism is the first step in developing such methods. This chapter describes how risk factors for sexual recidivism have been identified through meta-analytic studies, the limitations and strengths of this technique, and how relevant factors are subsequently combined to form actuarial risk scales. In addition, a description of how these same risk factors can be used to improve sexual offender treatment by identifying areas that are most in need of intervention is provided. Further, this chapter will also explain why this area of research is challenging and address some of the more controversial findings that are counterintuitive (e.g., the role of denial and victim empathy in risk prediction). Finally, recent developments in combining static risk factors with dynamic risk factors will be described, and suggestions to improve sexual offender risk assessment in the future will be offered.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    However, Rice and Harris (2005) note that Cohen’s d was designed for use where the scores being compared are continuous and normally distributed, a condition seldom met in risk assessment.

  2. 2.

    Though in offering these operational definitions for small, medium, and large effect sizes, Cohen (1988) himself notes that the values chosen had no more reliable a base than his intuition (p. 478) and suggests they not be used if possible (p. 532).

  3. 3.

    Rice and Harris (2005) also point out that when you have a base rate other than 50 %, the r values corresponding to the small, medium, and large effect sizes are even smaller.

  4. 4.

    N = number of subjects; K = number of studies.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. California Department of State Hospitals, Forensic Services Division, 182, Pismo Beach, CA, 93448, USA

    Dale Arnold Ph.D.

  2. California Department of State Hospitals, Forensic Services Division, 6243, Los Osos, CA, 93412, USA

    Marianne Davis Ph.D.

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Correspondence to Dale Arnold Ph.D. .

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  1. Private Practice, Morro Bay, California, USA

    Amy Phenix

  2. PACIFICA Center, Forensic Psychology Consultations, Wayzata, Minnesota, USA

    Harry M. Hoberman

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Arnold, D., Davis, M. (2016). Risk Factors and Risk Assessments for Sexual Offense Recidivism. In: Phenix, A., Hoberman, H. (eds) Sexual Offending. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-2416-5_18

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